La LigaEstadio Metropolitano, Madrid12°9 km/h

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    Atlético de MadridAtlético de MadridPossession & high press
    vs
    Deportivo La CoruñaDeportivo La CoruñaPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Atlético de Madrid (73%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 4.37 (+69 %)
    Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.

    Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruña · La Liga

    1 · Atlético de Madrid 73%X 14%13% Deportivo La Coruña · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruña (La Liga, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Atlético de Madrid win 73%, draw 14%, Deportivo La Coruña win 13%. Expected goals (xG): Atlético de Madrid 3.03, Deportivo La Coruña 1.05. Most likely score: 3-1 (8%). Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: Atlético de Madrid or draw 87%, Deportivo La Coruña or draw 27%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Atlético de Madrid – Deportivo La Coruña

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Atlético de Madrid's recent form is imposing, securing five consecutive victories. This momentum, combined with a formidable home win rate of 76% over 42 matches, sets the stage for a dominant display. The visitors, Deportivo de A Coruña, have been struggling, evident from their solitary point this season. Numbers suggest a high-scoring affair, with expected goals favoring the hosts heavily at 3.03 to Deportivo's 1.05.

    Given both teams favor possession and a high press, the midfield battle could be pivotal. Atlético's superior quality and depth should see them control the tempo, with their 73% win probability underscoring a likely triumph. However, Deportivo's pressing could disrupt the hosts' rhythm, suggesting potential moments of unease. Despite this, Atlético's attacking prowess, indicated by an xG of 1.7 per match, alongside their robust defense, makes it hard to see anything but a home win.

    The model leans towards a scoreline of 3-1, 2-1, or 3-0, each holding an 8% likelihood. The substantial over 2.5 goals probability at 77% aligns with this, hinting at a game with plenty of action. Both teams are expected to find the net, with a 62% chance for both to score, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-scoring contest.

    For those hunting value, the over 4.5 goals market stands out. Both Betsafe and Nordicbet offer it at 4.34 odds, a price the model values at 39%. This represents a hefty 68% edge, suggesting a worthwhile punt for risk-takers anticipating a goal-laden spectacle. Meanwhile, the away win at odds of 11.5 with Betsafe, though a long shot, offers another intriguing option given the 53% edge.

    Atlético de MadridAtlético de Madrid
    Form WWWWW
    League ranking xG #4xGA #3xT #4xP/match #6Points #2
    Key players
    • Marcos LlorenteRBxG 0.06 · xT 0.12
    • Pablo BarriosCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.19
    • Giuliano SimeoneRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.08
    Deportivo La CoruñaDeportivo La Coruña
    Form LD
    League ranking xG #7xGA #2xT #9xP/match #3Points #21

    Match prediction: Atlético de Madrid – Deportivo La Coruña

    Predicted score matrix

    Deportivo La Coruña →
    Atlético de Madrid →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–01.8%
    0–11.6%
    0–20.9%
    0–30.3%
    0–4+0.1%
    1
    1–05.0%
    1–15.5%
    1–22.8%
    1–31.0%
    1–4+0.3%
    2
    2–07.8%
    2–18.1%
    2–24.3%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–07.8%
    3–18.2%
    3–24.3%
    3–31.5%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–012.6%
    4+–113.2%
    4+–26.9%
    4+–32.4%
    4+–4+0.8%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.3-18%
    2. 2.2-18%
    3. 3.3-08%
    4. 4.2-08%
    5. 5.4-16%
    Expected goals
    3,03–1,05
    Both teams to score
    62%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 4,1
    Under 2,523%
    @2.48
    Over 2,577%
    @1.55EV+20%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Atlético de Madrid to win73%
    • Over 1.5 goals92%

    Combined probability

    71%

    Fair odds

    1.40

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Atlético de Madrid to win73%
    • Over 2.5 goals77%
    • Ademola Olajade Alade Aylola Lookman to score38%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score62%
    • Over 2.5 goals77%
    • Ademola Olajade Alade Aylola Lookman to score38%
    • Mario Soriano Carreño to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Over 4.539% probability@4.37BetsafeEV+69%reference odds
    • Over 4.539% probability@4.37NordicbetEV+69%reference odds
    • Over 4.539% probability@3.95LeoVegasEV+53%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Atlético de MadridX2 · Deportivo La Coruña
    Betsafe1.256.00
    EV+ 47%
    11.00
    LeoVegas1.275.75
    EV+ 27%
    9.50
    Nordicbet1.256.00
    EV+ 47%
    11.00

    Odds updated 22 Oct, 07:37

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Deportivo La Coruña win since 17 October — the odds have shortened from 12.00 to 9.50 (−21%).

    1+4 %
    78 %73 %

    1.22 → 1.27

    X-8 %
    18 %13 %

    6.25 → 5.75

    2-21 %
    11 %6 %

    12.00 → 9.50

    Over 2,5+4 %
    64 %59 %

    1.47 → 1.53

    LeoVegas · 39 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Atletico de Madrid come into this round on 5 straight wins.
    • Atletico de Madrid win 76% of their home matches all-time (42 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Atlético de Madrid
    Deportivo La Coruña
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Atlético de Madrid (19–8)
    Deportivo La Coruña (3–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Atlético de Madrid
    Marcos Llorente: 296 passningar, xT 0.4LlorenteCristian Gabriel Romero: 288 passningar, xT 0.59RomeroKoke: 260 passningar, xT 0.3KokeAlejandro Grimaldo García: 223 passningar, xT 0.24GarcíaJohnny Cardoso: 221 passningar, xT 0.35CardosoDávid Hancko: 208 passningar, xT 0.42HanckoKang-In Lee: 162 passningar, xT 1.51LeeMarc Pubill: 146 passningar, xT 0.23PubillGiuliano Simeone: 144 passningar, xT 0.48SimeoneMorten Blom Due Hjulmand: 136 passningar, xT 0.06HjulmandAlex Baena: 127 passningar, xT 0.6Baena
    Deportivo La Coruña
    Mario Soriano Carreño: 132 passningar, xT 0.05CarreñoBright Ede: 87 passningar, xT 0.13EdeJose Maria Gimenez: 85 passningar, xT 0.15GimenezDiego Villares Yáñez: 67 passningar, xT 0.1YáñezGiacomo Quagliata: 60 passningar, xT -0.05QuagliataJoaquín Navarro Jiménez: 58 passningar, xT 0.04JiménezLuis Miguel Cruz Hernández: 45 passningar, xT 0.11HernándezYeremay Hernández Cubas: 45 passningar, xT 0.57CubasLeo Roman: 40 passningar, xT 0.02RomanRicardo Rodríguez Gil Carcedo: 38 passningar, xT -0.05CarcedoAdria Altimira: 27 passningar, xT 0.17Altimira
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Atlético de Madrid
    Marcos Llorente: 296 passningar, xT 0.4LlorenteCristian Gabriel Romero: 288 passningar, xT 0.59RomeroKoke: 260 passningar, xT 0.3KokeAlejandro Grimaldo García: 223 passningar, xT 0.24GarcíaJohnny Cardoso: 221 passningar, xT 0.35CardosoDávid Hancko: 208 passningar, xT 0.42HanckoKang-In Lee: 162 passningar, xT 1.51LeeMarc Pubill: 146 passningar, xT 0.23PubillGiuliano Simeone: 144 passningar, xT 0.48SimeoneMorten Blom Due Hjulmand: 136 passningar, xT 0.06HjulmandAlex Baena: 127 passningar, xT 0.6Baena
    Deportivo La Coruña
    Mario Soriano Carreño: 132 passningar, xT 0.05CarreñoBright Ede: 87 passningar, xT 0.13EdeJose Maria Gimenez: 85 passningar, xT 0.15GimenezDiego Villares Yáñez: 67 passningar, xT 0.1YáñezGiacomo Quagliata: 60 passningar, xT -0.05QuagliataJoaquín Navarro Jiménez: 58 passningar, xT 0.04JiménezLuis Miguel Cruz Hernández: 45 passningar, xT 0.11HernándezYeremay Hernández Cubas: 45 passningar, xT 0.57CubasLeo Roman: 40 passningar, xT 0.02RomanRicardo Rodríguez Gil Carcedo: 38 passningar, xT -0.05CarcedoAdria Altimira: 27 passningar, xT 0.17Altimira

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceAtlético de MadridDeportivo La Coruña
    Points221
    xPoints14.23.3
    xG per match1.71.6
    xGA per match0.920.89
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.210.04
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.120.46
    Playing styleAtlético de MadridDeportivo La Coruña
    Build-up efficiency0.320.3
    Field tilt0.680.65
    xT per match1.30.92
    xTA per match0.610.78
    Won balls, offensive half2526
    Pressing intensity0.220.22
    Pressing efficiency0.280.32
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.280.22
    Entries into the box per match1811
    Entries into the box against810
    Pass completion %0.830.79
    Pass completion % under pressure0.780.71
    Passes per match517385
    Passes against per match324325
    Switches of play per match35.226.6
    Long balls per match3830
    Set piecesAtlético de MadridDeportivo La Coruña
    xG from free kicks0.010.01
    Corners per match6.26.5
    Corners against per match2.76
    xG per corner0.020.01
    xGA per corner against0.010.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.510.54
    First touch, defensive corners %0.520.83
    OtherAtlético de MadridDeportivo La Coruña
    Throw-in control0.790.85
    The goalkeepersJan Oblak (Atlético de Madrid)Leo Roman (Deportivo La Coruña)
    Saves204
    Save %71%50%
    xG prevented25%49%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Atlético de Madrid
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Deportivo La Coruña
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruña according to our model?

    The model gives Atlético de Madrid a 73% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Atlético de Madrid 73%, draw 14%, Deportivo La Coruña 13%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 3-1 at 8% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 77% and under at 23%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruña?

    The model expects 3.03 goals (xG) for Atlético de Madrid and 1.05 for Deportivo La Coruña, 4.08 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Atlético de Madrid or draw (1X) 87%, Deportivo La Coruña or draw (X2) 27% and no draw (12) 86%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.