Real Sociedad vs Levante Prediction: Home win 50% (25 Oct 2026)

La Liga25 October 2026 18:30 CETReale Arena, San Sebastián14°1,6 mm16 km/h

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Real SociedadBalanced & physical

LevanteLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Real Sociedad (50%)Best value by the model: 2 · Levante @ 4.50 (+10 %)

1 · Real Sociedad 50%X 26%24% Levante · 2

50%

26%

24%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Real Sociedad vs Levante (La Liga, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Real Sociedad win 50%, draw 26%, Levante win 24%. Expected goals (xG): Real Sociedad 1.79, Levante 1.17. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Real Sociedad or draw 76%, Levante or draw 50%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

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Analysis: Real Sociedad – Levante

Oscar Nilsson · 20 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Real Sociedad versus Levante presents an intriguing clash of styles, with the hosts on a winning streak and the visitors set up to disrupt with low defensive blocks and direct play. Sociedad's balanced approach should create opportunities, as reflected in their xG of 1.79 against Levante's 1.17. The hosts have been efficient lately, winning three on the bounce, which will bolster confidence in front of their home crowd.

The model gives Sociedad a 50% win probability, yet it's worth noting the potential for a tight contest, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1 at 11%. Levante’s direct style might surprise, especially with their odds of 4.5 offering value on Betsafe and Nordicbet. A small head-to-head sample shows Sociedad slightly ahead, but this weighs less given recent form and expected goals metrics.

Weather could play a role with 9.3 mm of rain expected, possibly dampening scoring opportunities. Still, the over 2.5 goals market leans towards 57%, with both teams to score at 58%. The expected goals suggest a narrow game with Sociedad's superior defensive metrics potentially tipping the balance. A 2-1 win for the hosts is on the cards, though the rain might just keep the scoreline tighter.

For punters seeking value, backing Levante at 4.5 with Betsafe or Nordicbet is compelling, offering a 10% edge according to the model. While Sociedad are favored, the visitors' style and odds indicate a potential upset, a classic case where the underdog could capitalize on overlooked opportunities.

Real Sociedad

Form WLWWW

League ranking xG #10xGA #18xT #15xP/match #12Points #5

Key players

Mamadou SarrCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
Carlos SolerCMxG 0.20 · xT 0.08
Jon MartinCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.02

Levante

Form DLLDD

League ranking xG #12xGA #20xT #14xP/match #20Points #17

Key players

Ifeanyi-Arthur NdukweCBxG 0.21 · xT 0.05
Adrian De La FuenteCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.20
Ivan RomeroFxG 0.28 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Real Sociedad – Levante

Predicted score matrix

Levante →

Real Sociedad →

0–05.5%

0–15.7%

0–23.5%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.5%

1–08.9%

1–111.2%

1–26.3%

1–32.5%

1–4+0.9%

2–08.3%

2–19.7%

2–25.7%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.8%

3–05.0%

3–15.8%

3–23.4%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.5%

4+–03.3%

4+–13.9%

4+–22.3%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.2-08%
5.1-26%

Expected goals

1,79–1,17

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.36EV+2%

Over 2,557%

@1.60

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Real Sociedad to win50%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Real Sociedad to win50%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Mikel Oyarzabal Ugarte to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Mikel Oyarzabal Ugarte to score27%
Oriol Rey Erenas to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Levante24% probability@4.50BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
2 · Levante24% probability@4.50NordicbetEV+10%reference odds
2 · Levante24% probability@4.33LeoVegasEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Real Sociedad	X	2 · Levante
Betsafe	1.70	EV+ 5% 4.05	EV+ 10% 4.50
LeoVegas	1.73	EV+ 3% 4.00	EV+ 6% 4.33
Nordicbet	1.70	EV+ 5% 4.05	EV+ 10% 4.50

Odds updated 21 Oct, 23:37

Odds movement

10 %

57 %52 %

1.73 → 1.73

X-2 %

26 %21 %

4.10 → 4.00

20 %

24 %19 %

4.33 → 4.33

Over 2,5+1 %

62 %57 %

1.57 → 1.58

LeoVegas · 20 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Real Sociedad 1Draw 1Levante 0

Goals: 3–1 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on La Liga data since 2022.

Key facts

Real Sociedad come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Real Sociedad

Levante

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Real Sociedad (17–17)

Levante (12–16)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Real Sociedad

Levante

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Real Sociedad

Levante

The teams in numbers

Performance	Real Sociedad	Levante
Points	16	7
xPoints	11.8	8.2
xG per match	1.3	1.2
xGA per match	1.6	1.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.35	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.4	0.33

Playing style	Real Sociedad	Levante
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.31
Field tilt	0.41	0.35
xT per match	0.71	0.74
xTA per match	1.2	0.93
Won balls, offensive half	27	22
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.22
Entries into the box per match	10	9
Entries into the box against	15	12
Pass completion %	0.79	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.69
Passes per match	405	318
Passes against per match	427	443
Switches of play per match	26.6	26.1
Long balls per match	31	32

Set pieces	Real Sociedad	Levante
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.04
Corners per match	7.1	3.5
Corners against per match	5	5
xG per corner	0.01	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.32
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.38

Other	Real Sociedad	Levante
Throw-in control	0.66	0.7

The goalkeepers	Alex Remiro (Real Sociedad)	Mathew Ryan (Levante)
Saves	34	29
Save %	71%	64%
xG prevented	44%	36%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Real Sociedad

Fixtures, form & tips

Levante

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Real Sociedad vs Levante according to our model?

The model gives Real Sociedad a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Real Sociedad 50%, draw 26%, Levante 24%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Real Sociedad vs Levante?

The model expects 1.79 goals (xG) for Real Sociedad and 1.17 for Levante, 2.96 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Real Sociedad or draw (1X) 76%, Levante or draw (X2) 50% and no draw (12) 74%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.