01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Mardin 1969 or draw (1X)68%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
Turkish 1. Lig17°12 km/h
Läs på svenskaMA
Mardin 1969Low block & directvs
Manisa FKPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Mardin 1969 (42%)Best value by the model: 2 · Manisa FK @ 4.82 (+40 %)
Mardin 1969 vs Manisa FK · Turkish 1. Lig
1 · Mardin 1969 42%X 29%29% Manisa FK · 2
42%
29%
29%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Mardin 1969 vs Manisa FK (Turkish 1. Lig, Monday, 26 October 2026): Mardin 1969 win 42%, draw 29%, Manisa FK win 29%. Expected goals (xG): Mardin 1969 1.33, Manisa FK 1.16. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Mardin 1969 or draw 71%, Manisa FK or draw 58%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Mardin 1969 – Manisa FK
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
A clash of contrasting styles looms as Mardin 1969 faces off against Manisa FK. The home side, known for their low defensive block and direct play, will look to exploit any gaps in the visitors' possession-heavy approach. While Mardin sits comfortably with 18 points, a clear edge over Manisa's 10, the underlying numbers suggest a tighter contest. The expected goals model gives Mardin a slight advantage, projecting them at 1.33 xG compared to Manisa's 1.16 xG. Yet, this is hardly a setup for a goal frenzy, with the over 2.5 goals sitting at just 45%.
The most likely scorelines also paint a cautious picture. A 1-1 draw leads the forecasts at 13%, followed by a narrow 1-0 win for Mardin at 11% and a 0-1 away victory for Manisa at 9%. This emphasis on low scores ties in with both teams' xGA per match, where Mardin edges out as the more defensively sound team. As such, expect a game dominated by tactical restraint rather than attacking abandon. Given these dynamics, the under 2.5 goals bet carries weight, with the tight defenses likely to suppress any scoring surge.
A small head-to-head sample means less emphasis on past encounters and more focus on current form and expected performance. Despite Mardin's defensive resilience, the model's probabilities highlight the potential for an upset, with Manisa holding a 29% chance of victory. This aligns intriguingly with the odds market, where Betsafe and Nordicbet both offer value on an away win at enticing odds of 4.17. A similar value proposition can be found at LeoVegas with odds of 4.1. These constitute significant opportunities for punters willing to back the visitors, even if the hosts hold the marginal statistical upper hand.
In the end, while the probable outcome tilts slightly towards a home win or a draw, the smart money could be on the value-laden odds for Manisa FK to snatch a tight victory. With a 21% edge identified by the model at Betsafe and Nordicbet, and 19% at LeoVegas, bettors with an appetite for risk might find this EV+ play hard to resist.
Mardin 1969
Form LLWWL
League ranking xG #11xGA #8xT #13xP/match #6Points #6
Key players
- Emre TaşdemirLWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.33
- Tonio TeklicRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.11
- Zdravko Minchev DimitrovLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.21
Manisa FKForm DLLDL
League ranking xG #6xGA #16xT #8xP/match #11Points #16
Key players
- Atakan CankayaCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.10
- Yusuf TalumLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.08
- Ada IbikCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
Match prediction: Mardin 1969 – Manisa FK
Predicted score matrix
Manisa FK →
Mardin 1969 →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.7%
0–19.3%
0–25.6%
0–32.1%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–010.7%
1–113.2%
1–27.4%
1–32.9%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.4%
2–18.5%
2–24.9%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–03.3%
3–13.8%
3–22.2%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–11.7%
4+–21.0%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,33–1,16
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,555%
@2.00EV+6%
Over 2,545%
@1.75
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Mardin 1969 or draw (1X)68%
- Under 2.5 goals55%
- Tobi Olarenwaju Ayobami Kayode to score19%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Tobi Olarenwaju Ayobami Kayode to score19%
- Atakan Rıdvan Çankaya to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Manisa FK29% probability@4.82BetsafeEV+40%reference odds
- 2 · Manisa FK29% probability@4.82NordicbetEV+40%reference odds
- 2 · Manisa FK29% probability@4.80LeoVegasEV+40%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Mardin 1969 | X | 2 · Manisa FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.59 | EV+ 13% 3.87 | EV+ 40% 4.82 |
| LeoVegas | 1.62 | EV+ 10% 3.75 | EV+ 40% 4.80 |
| Nordicbet | 1.59 | EV+ 13% 3.87 | EV+ 40% 4.82 |
Odds updated 26 Oct, 06:35
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Mardin 1969 win since 20 October — the odds have shortened from 1.71 to 1.59 (−7%).
1-7 %
60 %50 %
1.71 → 1.59
X+7 %
30 %20 %
3.62 → 3.87
2+11 %
25 %15 %
4.33 → 4.82
Over 2,50 %
58 %48 %
1.75 → 1.75
Nordicbet · 9 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Mardin 1969
Manisa FK
Mardin 1969 (14–10)
Manisa FK (18–20)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Mardin 1969
Manisa FK
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Mardin 1969
Manisa FK
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Mardin 1969 | Manisa FK |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 18 | 10 |
| xPoints | 16.6 | 14.8 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| Playing style | Mardin 1969 | Manisa FK |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| xT per match | 0.87 | 0.99 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.88 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.7 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 257 | 365 |
| Passes against per match | 402 | 331 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.6 | 27.7 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 39 |
| Set pieces | Mardin 1969 | Manisa FK |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 4.8 | 4.1 |
| Corners against per match | 3.5 | 4.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.46 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.68 | 0.62 |
| Other | Mardin 1969 | Manisa FK |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Erce Kardesler (Mardin 1969) | Vedat Karakuş (Manisa FK) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 34 | 25 |
| Save % | 79% | 57% |
| xG prevented | 49% | 40% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Mardin 1969 vs Manisa FK according to our model?
The model gives Mardin 1969 a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mardin 1969 42%, draw 29%, Manisa FK 29%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Mardin 1969 vs Manisa FK?
The model expects 1.33 goals (xG) for Mardin 1969 and 1.16 for Manisa FK, 2.48 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Mardin 1969 or draw (1X) 71%, Manisa FK or draw (X2) 58% and no draw (12) 71%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.