Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük: Prediction & Odds (24 Oct 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig24 October 202613°7 km/h

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SarıyerPossession control

0–2

Fatih KaragümrükPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Sarıyer (37%)

1 · Sarıyer 37%X 28%34% Fatih Karagümrük · 2

37%

28%

34%

Prediction summary

Final score 0–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük (Turkish 1. Lig, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Sarıyer win 37%, draw 28%, Fatih Karagümrük win 34%. Expected goals (xG): Sarıyer 1.25, Fatih Karagümrük 1.21. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%. Double chance: Sarıyer or draw 66%, Fatih Karagümrük or draw 63%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

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Analysis: Sarıyer – Fatih Karagümrük

Sofia Andersson · 24 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Sarıyer's slight edge in the numbers sets up a tightly contested match against Fatih Karagümrük. Their 37% win probability, compared to the visitors' 34%, suggests a narrow advantage for the hosts. The expected goals (xG) figures are nearly identical: 1.25 for Sarıyer against 1.21 for Karagümrük, painting a picture of two evenly matched teams. Yet, Sarıyer's edge in xPoints (16.6 to 14.4) and xGA (1.1 to 1.3) hints at a subtle superiority, grounded in their control-oriented play style.

A 1-1 draw appears as the most probable outcome (13%), reflecting the balanced nature of this encounter. However, given Sarıyer's home advantage and slightly higher expected goal metrics, a 1-0 victory for the hosts also looms as a realistic scenario, matching the probability of a 0-1 away win (10% each). The numbers suggest a cautious approach to the goal market, with a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a coin-flip 50% for both teams scoring.

Fatih Karagümrük's high press may disrupt Sarıyer's possession game, but it's the host's defensive resilience that could tip the scales. Sarıyer's xGA per match of 1.1, compared to Karagümrük's 1.3, indicates a more disciplined defensive setup, which might just hold firm against the visitors' pressing tactics.

In the end, the model leans towards Sarıyer, and their steady form supports that inclination. For bettors seeking value, keep an eye on the 1-0 scoreline at bookmakers offering odds that capture Sarıyer's favored status. Despite the tight margins, the hosts' marginal statistical advantages could be worth the punt, though the prospect of a low-scoring draw remains a credible threat.

Sarıyer

Form DWDLD

League ranking xG #7xGA #5xT #6xP/match #7Points #8

Key players

Esref KorkmazogluLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.17
Cebrail KarayelRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.10
Marcos SilvaCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.05

Fatih Karagümrük

Form DWDLL

League ranking xG #10xGA #13xT #2xP/match #13Points #13

Key players

Anıl Yiğit ÇınarCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.11
Davide BiraschiCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.20
Daniele VerdeRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.21

Final score

0 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Sarıyer 37% · Draw 28% · Fatih Karagümrük 34%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Fatih KaragümrükBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 10,51fair 13,38-21 %

Miss

Matchresultat - SariyerBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,30fair 12,63-26 %

Miss

Match prediction: Sarıyer – Fatih Karagümrük

Predicted score matrix

Fatih Karagümrük →

Sarıyer →

0–08.9%

0–110.0%

0–26.3%

0–32.5%

0–4+1.0%

1–010.3%

1–113.3%

1–27.8%

1–33.2%

1–4+1.2%

2–06.7%

2–18.1%

2–24.9%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.8%

3–02.8%

3–13.4%

3–22.0%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.4%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.0-110%
4.0-09%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,25–1,21

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,555%

@1.70

Over 2,545%

@2.04

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Sarıyer or draw (1X)65%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Sarıyer or draw (1X)65%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Batuhan Kör to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Emre Akbaba to score25%
Yaya Onogo to be booked23%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Sarıyer	X	2 · Fatih Karagümrük
Betsafe	2.43	3.19	2.72
LeoVegas	2.45	3.15	2.70
Nordicbet	2.43	3.19	2.72

Odds updated 24 Oct, 13:37

Odds movement

1-2 %

40 %35 %

2.47 → 2.43

X+2 %

31 %26 %

3.14 → 3.19

20 %

37 %32 %

2.71 → 2.72

Over 2,50 %

48 %43 %

2.04 → 2.04

Nordicbet · 11 recorded price levels · 19/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sarıyer

Fatih Karagümrük

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sarıyer (14–15)

Fatih Karagümrük (14–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sarıyer

Fatih Karagümrük

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sarıyer

Fatih Karagümrük

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sarıyer	Fatih Karagümrük
Points	16	13
xPoints	16.6	14.4
xG per match	1.4	1.3
xGA per match	1.1	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.19

Playing style	Sarıyer	Fatih Karagümrük
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.3
Field tilt	0.56	0.56
xT per match	1.1	1.4
xTA per match	0.81	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	22	27
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.29
Entries into the box per match	12	14
Entries into the box against	9	12
Pass completion %	0.79	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.73
Passes per match	398	356
Passes against per match	342	343
Switches of play per match	31.7	28.6
Long balls per match	42	38

Set pieces	Sarıyer	Fatih Karagümrük
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.08
Corners per match	3.7	4
Corners against per match	3.8	5.3
xG per corner	0.02	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0.43	0.64

Other	Sarıyer	Fatih Karagümrük
Throw-in control	0.71	0.72

The goalkeepers	Ibrahim Šehić (Sarıyer)	Marco Silvestri (Fatih Karagümrük)
Saves	25	30
Save %	68%	68%
xG prevented	48%	60%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sarıyer

Fixtures, form & tips

Fatih Karagümrük

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük according to our model?

The model gives Sarıyer a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sarıyer 37%, draw 28%, Fatih Karagümrük 34%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük?

The model expects 1.25 goals (xG) for Sarıyer and 1.21 for Fatih Karagümrük, 2.46 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Sarıyer or draw (1X) 66%, Fatih Karagümrük or draw (X2) 63% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.