Bandırmaspor vs Iğdır: Prediction & Odds (24 Oct 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig24 October 202616°18 km/h

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BandırmasporPossession control

1–2

IğdırPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Bandırmaspor (53%)

1 · Bandırmaspor 53%X 27%19% Iğdır · 2

53%

27%

19%

Prediction summary

Final score 1–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Bandırmaspor vs Iğdır (Turkish 1. Lig, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Bandırmaspor win 53%, draw 27%, Iğdır win 19%. Expected goals (xG): Bandırmaspor 1.64, Iğdır 0.90. Most likely score: 1-0 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 48%. Double chance: Bandırmaspor or draw 81%, Iğdır or draw 47%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

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Analysis: Bandırmaspor – Iğdır

Erik Lindberg · 24 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: Bandırmaspor's home strength sets the stage for their clash against Iğdır. The hosts have historically been formidable at home, winning 59% of their home matches from 46 played. Yet, they face an Iğdır side that is unbeaten in their last 8 league matches, indicative of a resilient streak. With both teams favoring possession control, it appears we are in for a tactical battle rather than a high-scoring affair.

The model pegs Bandırmaspor as 53% favorites, underlining their potential dominance in this fixture. Despite trailing Iğdır in the points tally—14 to 23—the home side boasts a slight edge in expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA), hinting at a knack for creating and limiting quality chances. Iğdır's 19% win probability reflects their underdog status, despite their unbeaten run.

In a head-to-head sample of four matches, Bandırmaspor holds a narrow edge with one win and three draws. This limited history slightly favors the hosts but is overshadowed by Iğdır's current form and their stronger xPoints showing. The most likely scorelines of 1-0 and 2-0 favor Bandırmaspor, suggesting a low-scoring victory might be on the cards. The over/under 2.5 goals forecast sits at 47%, pointing towards a cautious approach.

For those seeking value, the smart money leans towards Bandırmaspor. Odds of 2.19 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, and 2.18 with LeoVegas, present a 16% edge based on the model's assessment. Such value bets capitalize on Bandırmaspor's home prowess and the inherent volatility of Iğdır's unbeaten stretch.

Bandırmaspor

Form DLWDL

League ranking xG #5xGA #3xT #11xP/match #9Points #11

Key players

Enes AydınCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.12
Oluwatosin KehindeLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.18
Lucas Pedro Alves de LimaLBxG 0.10 · xT 0.25

Iğdır

Form WDWDW

League ranking xG #14xGA #7xT #18xP/match #4Points #3

Key players

Alim OzturkCBxG 0.16 · xT 0.11
Gokcan KayaRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.11
Doğan ErdoğanCDMxG 0.08 · xT 0.07

Final score

1 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Bandırmaspor 53% · Draw 27% · Iğdır 19%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - BandirmasporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,69fair 8,01-4 %

Miss

Match prediction: Bandırmaspor – Iğdır

Predicted score matrix

Iğdır →

Bandırmaspor →

0–08.2%

0–16.7%

0–23.2%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.3%

1–012.6%

1–112.0%

1–25.2%

1–31.6%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.7%

2–19.5%

2–24.3%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.3%

3–05.8%

3–15.2%

3–22.3%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–03.5%

4+–13.1%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-013%
2.1-112%
3.2-011%
4.2-110%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,64–0,90

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,553%

@1.83

Over 2,547%

@1.85

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Bandırmaspor to win53%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Bandırmaspor to win53%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Gianni Bruno to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Gianni Bruno to score30%
Alim Öztürk to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Bandırmaspor53% probability@2.29BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
1 · Bandırmaspor53% probability@2.29NordicbetEV+21%reference odds
1 · Bandırmaspor53% probability@2.25LeoVegasEV+19%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Bandırmaspor	X	2 · Iğdır
Betsafe	EV+ 21% 2.29	3.20	2.91
LeoVegas	EV+ 19% 2.25	3.25	2.90
Nordicbet	EV+ 21% 2.29	3.20	2.91

Odds updated 24 Oct, 11:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 18 October — the odds have shortened from 2.00 to 1.85 (−7%).

1+2 %

44 %39 %

2.24 → 2.29

X0 %

31 %26 %

3.19 → 3.20

2-3 %

33 %28 %

3.00 → 2.91

Over 2,5-7 %

50 %45 %

2.00 → 1.85

Nordicbet · 13 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Bandırmaspor 1Draw 3Iğdır 0

Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 1,2)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

Key facts

Igdir FK are unbeaten in their last 8 league matches.
Bandirmaspor win 59% of their home matches all-time (46 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Bandırmaspor

Iğdır

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Bandırmaspor (16–8)

Iğdır (15–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Bandırmaspor

Iğdır

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Bandırmaspor

Iğdır

The teams in numbers

Performance	Bandırmaspor	Iğdır
Points	14	23
xPoints	15.3	16.6
xG per match	1.4	1.2
xGA per match	0.96	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.28	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.14	0.1

Playing style	Bandırmaspor	Iğdır
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.33
Field tilt	0.65	0.5
xT per match	0.95	0.78
xTA per match	0.63	0.84
Won balls, offensive half	27	24
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.37	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.35	0.23
Entries into the box per match	13	9
Entries into the box against	8	10
Pass completion %	0.8	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.71
Passes per match	411	329
Passes against per match	234	336
Switches of play per match	35.4	23
Long balls per match	44	34

Set pieces	Bandırmaspor	Iğdır
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.1
Corners per match	4.7	4.8
Corners against per match	3.1	4.6
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.54	0.49
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.53

Other	Bandırmaspor	Iğdır
Throw-in control	0.75	0.67

The goalkeepers	Akin Alkan (Bandırmaspor)	Jakub Szumski (Iğdır)
Saves	27	32
Save %	77%	80%
xG prevented	40%	59%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Bandırmaspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Iğdır

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Bandırmaspor vs Iğdır according to our model?

The model gives Bandırmaspor a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bandırmaspor 53%, draw 27%, Iğdır 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Bandırmaspor vs Iğdır?

The model expects 1.64 goals (xG) for Bandırmaspor and 0.90 for Iğdır, 2.54 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Bandırmaspor or draw (1X) 81%, Iğdır or draw (X2) 47% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.