Boluspor vs Vanspor: Prediction & Odds (23 Oct 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig23 October 202613°0,2 mm8 km/h

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BolusporLow block & direct

0–3

VansporPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Vanspor (39%)

1 · Boluspor 33%X 28%39% Vanspor · 2

33%

28%

39%

Prediction summary

Final score 0–3. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Boluspor vs Vanspor (Turkish 1. Lig, Friday, 23 October 2026): Boluspor win 33%, draw 28%, Vanspor win 39%. Expected goals (xG): Boluspor 1.13, Vanspor 1.26. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%. Double chance: Boluspor or draw 61%, Vanspor or draw 67%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Boluspor – Vanspor

Anna Karlsson · 23 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The odds reference ("Bet365's odds of 2.50 on a Vanspor win (EV+)") is not supported by any data in the FACTS and should be removed.

A 39% probability gives Vanspor the edge as they visit Boluspor, and with their superior xPoints and xG figures, it's easy to see why. Although the match prediction model leans slightly toward the visitors, the numbers suggest a tight contest. The most likely outcomes, a 1-1 draw (13%) or a narrow 0-1 away win (11%), illustrate a fine balance, but the slight advantage in both expected goals and defensive metrics tilts the scales in Vanspor's favor.

While Boluspor's direct playing style could disrupt Vanspor’s possession game, their low defensive profile is cause for concern. Despite the limited head-to-head history, with just two meetings since 2024 where each side has claimed a win, current form and statistics indicate a stronger visiting side. Boluspor's xG per match of 0.62 is underwhelming, especially when set against Vanspor's 1.1, suggesting the hosts may struggle to find the net.

The tight model probabilities and a 43% chance for over 2.5 goals reflect a cautious market. While the most probable scoreline remains 1-1, a 0-1 outcome for the visitors aligns with both their strengths and Boluspor’s vulnerabilities.

Boluspor

Form DLLWL

League ranking xG #20xGA #19xT #20xP/match #20Points #20

Key players

Muhammet Zeki DursunFxG 0.06 · xT 0.07
Abdulsamet KırımLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.20
Canberk Omer OzdemirLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07

Vanspor

Form DLLWL

League ranking xG #15xGA #16xT #15xP/match #15Points #18

Key players

Jurgen BardhiFxG 0.37 · xT 0.07
Naby OulareCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
Ozan Can KökçüCAMxG 0.05 · xT 0.12

Final score

0 – 3

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Boluspor 33% · Draw 28% · Vanspor 39%

Match prediction: Boluspor – Vanspor

Predicted score matrix

Vanspor →

Boluspor →

0–09.5%

0–111.2%

0–27.3%

0–33.1%

0–4+1.3%

1–09.9%

1–113.4%

1–28.2%

1–33.5%

1–4+1.4%

2–05.8%

2–17.4%

2–24.7%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.8%

3–02.2%

3–12.8%

3–21.8%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-010%
4.0-010%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,13–1,26

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+10%

Under 2,557%

–

Over 2,543%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Vanspor or draw (X2)68%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Vanspor or draw (X2)68%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Álvaro de Oliveira Felicissimo to score16%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Rodrigo Rivas González to score33%
Mehmet Özcan to be booked23%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Boluspor 1Draw 0Vanspor 1

Goals: 3–3 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Boluspor

Vanspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Boluspor (4–22)

Vanspor (10–22)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Boluspor

Vanspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Boluspor

Vanspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Boluspor	Vanspor
Points	4	9
xPoints	11.1	13.8
xG per match	0.62	1.1
xGA per match	1.6	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.26	0.42

Playing style	Boluspor	Vanspor
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.29	0.48
xT per match	0.61	0.81
xTA per match	1.2	0.9
Won balls, offensive half	18	22
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.17	0.19
Entries into the box per match	7	10
Entries into the box against	13	9
Pass completion %	0.71	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.69
Passes per match	256	308
Passes against per match	459	380
Switches of play per match	23.2	19.4
Long balls per match	32	29

Set pieces	Boluspor	Vanspor
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.1
Corners per match	1.8	4.6
Corners against per match	5.4	3.3
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.37	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.71	0.53

Other	Boluspor	Vanspor
Throw-in control	0.72	0.67

The goalkeepers	Angelo Tafas (Boluspor)	Alperen Uysal (Vanspor)
Saves	27	17
Save %	56%	50%
xG prevented	25%	38%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Boluspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Vanspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Boluspor vs Vanspor according to our model?

The model gives Vanspor a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Boluspor 33%, draw 28%, Vanspor 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Boluspor vs Vanspor?

The model expects 1.13 goals (xG) for Boluspor and 1.26 for Vanspor, 2.39 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Boluspor or draw (1X) 61%, Vanspor or draw (X2) 67% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.