01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Ankara Keçiörengücü or draw (1X)67%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Turkish 1. Lig14°10 km/h
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Ankara KeçiörengücüPossession control2–4
BursasporPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Ankara Keçiörengücü (37%)
Ankara Keçiörengücü vs Bursaspor · Turkish 1. Lig
1 · Ankara Keçiörengücü 37%X 28%35% Bursaspor · 2
37%
28%
35%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–4. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Ankara Keçiörengücü vs Bursaspor (Turkish 1. Lig, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Ankara Keçiörengücü win 37%, draw 28%, Bursaspor win 35%. Expected goals (xG): Ankara Keçiörengücü 1.46, Bursaspor 1.27. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Ankara Keçiörengücü or draw 65%, Bursaspor or draw 63%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Ankara Keçiörengücü – Bursaspor
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Ankara Keçiörengücü remain unbeaten over their last 10 league matches, a significant streak that underscores their resilience. This record is tested by a Bursaspor side that has consistently found the net in 11 consecutive games. While Bursaspor edges the hosts on points with 25 to their 20, the expected points tell a different tale, marginally favoring the hosts at 19.6 against the visitors' 19.1. This reflects the underlying strength in Keçiörengücü's performances, despite their lower point tally.
Both teams have distinctive playing styles. Keçiörengücü focuses on possession control, while Bursaspor employs possession with a high press, potentially leading to an intriguing tactical battle. The model suggests a slight lean towards the hosts, with a 37% win probability compared to Bursaspor's 35%. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, indicating a tight match, though a narrow 1-0 or 2-1 victory for Keçiörengücü remains plausible given their strong home presence.
In betting terms, there's evident value betting on a home win. LeoVegas offers odds of 3.3, while Betsafe and Nordicbet stand at 3.29. With the model rating Keçiörengücü's win probability at 37%, these odds present a 21% edge, making them an attractive proposition for punters seeking value in this tightly poised clash.
Ankara KeçiörengücüForm DDWDW
League ranking xG #4xGA #11xT #12xP/match #1Points #4
Key players
- Mame DioufFxG 0.46 · xT 0.02
- Wellington Ferreira NascimentoCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.09
- Francis EzehLWxG 0.26 · xT 0.16
BursasporForm DWLWW
League ranking xG #2xGA #1xT #3xP/match #3Points #2
Key players
- Alperen BabacanCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.10
- Juergen Farid Elitim SepúlvedaCDMxG 0.08 · xT 0.15
- Kelechi Promise ỊheanachọFxG 0.80 · xT 0.06
Final score
2 – 4
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Ankara Keçiörengücü 37% · Draw 28% · Bursaspor 35%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - KeciörengücüBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,41fair 8,97+5 %
MissMatchresultat - BursasporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,41fair 11,79-54 %
HitMatch prediction: Ankara Keçiörengücü – Bursaspor
Predicted score matrix
Bursaspor →
Ankara Keçiörengücü →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.9%
0–17.9%
0–25.3%
0–32.2%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–09.2%
1–112.4%
1–27.7%
1–33.3%
1–4+1.4%
2
2–06.9%
2–18.8%
2–25.6%
2–32.4%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–03.4%
3–14.3%
3–22.7%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–01.7%
4+–12.2%
4+–21.4%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-09%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,46–1,27
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,70
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@2.14EV+4%
Over 2,551%
@1.64
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Ankara Keçiörengücü or draw (1X)67%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Halil Can Ayan to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Halil Can Ayan to score28%
- Juergen Farid Elitim Sepúlveda to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Ankara Keçiörengücü37% probability@3.40BetsafeEV+25%reference odds
- 1 · Ankara Keçiörengücü37% probability@3.40NordicbetEV+25%reference odds
- 1 · Ankara Keçiörengücü37% probability@3.30LeoVegasEV+21%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Ankara Keçiörengücü | X | 2 · Bursaspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 25% 3.40 | 3.49 | 1.95 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 21% 3.30 | 3.35 | 1.98 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 25% 3.40 | 3.49 | 1.95 |
Odds updated 25 Oct, 10:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Bursaspor win since 20 October — the odds have shortened from 2.38 to 1.95 (−18%).
1+19 %
34 %24 %
2.86 → 3.40
X+13 %
33 %23 %
3.10 → 3.49
2-18 %
48 %38 %
2.38 → 1.95
Over 2,5-10 %
59 %49 %
1.79 → 1.61
Nordicbet · 18 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Ankara Keciorengucu are unbeaten in their last 10 league matches.
- Bursaspor have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Ankara Keçiörengücü
Bursaspor
Ankara Keçiörengücü (21–11)
Bursaspor (22–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Ankara Keçiörengücü
Bursaspor
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Ankara Keçiörengücü
Bursaspor
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Ankara Keçiörengücü | Bursaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 20 | 25 |
| xPoints | 19.6 | 19.1 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 0.79 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| Playing style | Ankara Keçiörengücü | Bursaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| Field tilt | 0.43 | 0.67 |
| xT per match | 0.92 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.59 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 311 | 436 |
| Passes against per match | 395 | 256 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.4 | 30.4 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Ankara Keçiörengücü | Bursaspor |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Corners per match | 3.5 | 5.6 |
| Corners against per match | 5.1 | 3.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.66 |
| Other | Ankara Keçiörengücü | Bursaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Mehmet Erdogan (Ankara Keçiörengücü) | Kerem Matışlı (Bursaspor) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 19 | 16 |
| Save % | 86% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 84% | 36% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Boluspor – Vanspor23 October 2026
- Bandırmaspor – Iğdır24 October 2026
- Muğlaspor – Istanbulspor24 October 2026
- Ümraniyespor – Sivasspor24 October 2026
- Sarıyer – Fatih Karagümrük24 October 2026
- Antalyaspor – Bodrumspor25 October 2026
- Pendikspor – Kayserispor25 October 2026
- Batman Petrolspor – Esenler Erokspor25 October 2026
- Mardin 1969 – Manisa FK26 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Ankara Keçiörengücü vs Bursaspor according to our model?
The model gives Ankara Keçiörengücü a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ankara Keçiörengücü 37%, draw 28%, Bursaspor 35%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Ankara Keçiörengücü vs Bursaspor?
The model expects 1.46 goals (xG) for Ankara Keçiörengücü and 1.27 for Bursaspor, 2.73 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Ankara Keçiörengücü or draw (1X) 65%, Bursaspor or draw (X2) 63% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.