Boluspor vs Manisa FK: Prediction & Odds (7 Aug 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig7 August 202622°11 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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BolusporPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Boluspor (51%)

Manisa FKLow block & direct

1 · Boluspor 51%X 26%23% Manisa FK · 2

51%

26%

23%

Boluspor

Form LLWLW

League ranking xG #5xGA #13xT #6xP/match #14Points #15

Key players

Florent HasaniFxG 0.44 · xT 0.22
Dean LicoCDMxG 0.13 · xT 0.04
Dogan Can DavasLWxG 0.34 · xT 0.09

Manisa FK

Form WWWLW

League ranking xG #13xGA #16xT #13xP/match #16Points #9

Key players

Loïs DionyFxG 0.42 · xT 0.08
Burak SuleymanLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.18
Bobby AdekanyeRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.16

Match prediction: Boluspor – Manisa FK

Predicted score matrix

Manisa FK →

Boluspor →

0–06.7%

0–16.3%

0–23.5%

0–31.2%

0–4+0.4%

1–010.6%

1–111.7%

1–25.9%

1–32.1%

1–4+0.7%

2–09.3%

2–19.7%

2–25.1%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–05.3%

3–15.5%

3–22.9%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–03.3%

4+–13.5%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-110%
4.2-09%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,71–1,04

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,548%

–

Over 2,552%

–

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Analysis: Boluspor – Manisa FK

Marcus Johansson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

51% is the magic number. That's the probability model's nod towards Boluspor walking away with three points against Manisa FK. The bookmakers, with their eyes on a Boluspor victory, have every reason to lean in this direction. Despite trailing Manisa FK by seven points in the league standings, Boluspor has a way of asserting dominance when it matters, especially at home. Their xPoints edge of 50.3 over Manisa FK’s 46.6 reflects a subtle but significant potential—one that's been validated by their superior xG figures of 1.5 per match against Manisa FK’s 1.2.

Boluspor enters with the confidence of a lion tamer, having won three of their last four encounters against Manisa FK. They lean on a possession-heavy style that should test Manisa FK’s low defensive block. The latter may find themselves chasing shadows if Boluspor can dictate the tempo from the outset. Given the expected goals of 1.71 for Boluspor and Manisa FK's 1.04, the hosts not only look poised to prevail but likely to do so with a narrow margin.

The numbers hint at a gritty contest with potential fireworks. A 1-1 draw tops the probability charts at 12%, but a 1-0 Boluspor win at 11% and a 2-1 result at 10% closely follow. The over 2.5 goals market teeters at 52%, a slim majority suggesting a slight lean towards a goal-rich encounter, but not overwhelmingly so. Both teams scoring is a coin-flip at 53%. If forced to choose, I’d edge towards a 1-0 Boluspor victory—tight, tense, and just about right.

As for the sharpest betting angle, Betfair tempts with odds of 2.10 on a Boluspor win. Considering the model probabilities and historical dominance, this line appears to offer some value. While no bet is a sure thing, this one seems worth a punt, sitting comfortably in the plus EV territory.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Boluspor 3Draw 0Manisa FK 1

Goals: 7–4 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Boluspor

Manisa FK

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Boluspor (61–57)

Manisa FK (57–56)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Boluspor

Manisa FK

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Boluspor

Manisa FK

The teams in numbers

Performance	Boluspor	Manisa FK
Points	48	55
xPoints	50.3	46.6
xG per match	1.5	1.2
xGA per match	1.3	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.26	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.34

Playing style	Boluspor	Manisa FK
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.31
Field tilt	0.58	0.43
xT per match	1.1	0.88
xTA per match	0.85	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	26	23
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.36	0.31
Entries into the box per match	11	11
Entries into the box against	10	13
Pass completion %	0.77	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.73
Passes per match	357	302
Passes against per match	248	361
Switches of play per match	25.9	22.9
Long balls per match	36	29

Set pieces	Boluspor	Manisa FK
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.03
Corners per match	4.4	3.7
Corners against per match	4.1	5
xG per corner	0.05	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.35	0.48
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.58

Other	Boluspor	Manisa FK
Throw-in control	0.68	0.65

The goalkeepers	Turker Dirdiroglu (Boluspor)	Vedat Karakuş (Manisa FK)
Saves	51	101
Save %	64%	76%
xG prevented	45%	46%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Boluspor vs Manisa FK according to our model?

The model gives Boluspor a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Boluspor 51%, draw 26%, Manisa FK 23%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.