Iğdır vs Fatih Karagümrük: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig9 August 202629°12 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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IğdırLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Iğdır (45%)

Fatih KaragümrükPossession control

1 · Iğdır 45%X 27%29% Fatih Karagümrük · 2

45%

27%

29%

Iğdır

Form LWDLD

League ranking xG #13xGA #16xT #13xP/match #16Points #9

Key players

Loïs DionyFxG 0.42 · xT 0.08
Burak SuleymanLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.18
Bobby AdekanyeRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.16

Fatih Karagümrük

Form LWLWW

League ranking xG #12xGA #17xT #14xP/match #18Points #18

Key players

Gaël Romeo Kakuta MambengaFxG 0.32 · xT 0.21
Sergio Fernando Peña FloresCAMxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
Engin Poyraz Efe YıldırımFxG 0.33 · xT 0.01

Match prediction: Iğdır – Fatih Karagümrük

Predicted score matrix

Fatih Karagümrük →

Iğdır →

0–07.0%

0–17.9%

0–25.0%

0–32.1%

0–4+0.8%

1–09.5%

1–112.5%

1–27.4%

1–33.0%

1–4+1.2%

2–07.3%

2–19.0%

2–25.5%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.9%

3–03.6%

3–14.4%

3–22.7%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.8%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.0-18%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,48–1,23

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

–

Over 2,551%

–

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Analysis: Iğdır – Fatih Karagümrük

Anna Karlsson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Tension between form and history is palpable as Igdir FK prepares to host Fatih Karagumruk in the Turkish 1. Lig. Despite sitting 20 points clear in the standings, Igdir FK has failed to crack the code against Fatih Karagumruk, losing both of their past encounters since 2024. Yet, the models give Igdir FK a 45% probability to claim victory, highlighting their standing as favourites, though not overwhelmingly so.

Igdir FK embodies a low defence and direct style, which could unsettle Fatih Karagumruk's penchant for possession control. With expected goals slightly favouring Igdir FK at 1.48 compared to 1.23 for their opponents, cracks in Karagumruk's game plan might emerge if Igdir pushes the tempo. The models suggest a 12% likelihood of a 1-1 draw, but with 10% backing for a 1-0 Igdir FK win, the home side could finally find a way through.

Fatih Karagumruk, despite trailing significantly in points, display a near-parity in xPoints compared to Igdir FK, with a negligible 0.1 edge. This speaks to their ability to control play even if results have been elusive. With both teams showing vulnerabilities in defence—Fatih Karagumruk's slightly worse at 1.6 xGA per match—goals should be anticipated. The over 2.5 goals market sits at a slender 51% probability, suggesting a cautiously optimistic lean towards multiple goals.

For punters inclined to take a risk, Igdir FK's model-backed 45% win probability may offer value in the win-draw-win market. However, for the sharpest edge, the bookmakers at Bet365 present Both Teams to Score at odds of 1.80. With a 55% chance for both teams to find the net, the numbers point to an appealing angle for those seeking value in the statistics.

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Iğdır 0Draw 0Fatih Karagümrük 2

Goals: 1–3 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Iğdır

Fatih Karagümrük

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Iğdır (52–54)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Iğdır

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Iğdır

The teams in numbers

Performance	Iğdır	Fatih Karagümrük
Points	55	35
xPoints	46.6	46.7
xG per match	1.2	1.2
xGA per match	1.5	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.34	0.2

Playing style	Iğdır	Fatih Karagümrük
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.3
Field tilt	0.43	0.47
xT per match	0.88	0.87
xTA per match	1.1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	23	25
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.32
Entries into the box per match	11	11
Entries into the box against	13	12
Pass completion %	0.75	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.72
Passes per match	302	306
Passes against per match	361	350
Switches of play per match	22.9	25.4
Long balls per match	29	37

Set pieces	Iğdır	Fatih Karagümrük
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.14
Corners per match	3.7	4
Corners against per match	5	4.7
xG per corner	0.07	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.35
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.56

Other	Iğdır	Fatih Karagümrük
Throw-in control	0.65	0.67

The goalkeepers	Muhammet Taha Tepe (Iğdır)	Fatih Karagümrük
Saves	54	–
Save %	66%	–
xG prevented	40%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Iğdır vs Fatih Karagümrük according to our model?

The model gives Iğdır a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Iğdır 45%, draw 27%, Fatih Karagümrük 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.