Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor: Prediction & Odds (24 Oct 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig24 October 202615°15 km/h

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ÜmraniyesporLow block & direct

4–0

SivassporPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Ümraniyespor (42%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 11.00 (+4 %)

1 · Ümraniyespor 42%X 30%27% Sivasspor · 2

42%

30%

27%

Prediction summary

Final score 4–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor (Turkish 1. Lig, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Ümraniyespor win 42%, draw 30%, Sivasspor win 27%. Expected goals (xG): Ümraniyespor 1.28, Sivasspor 1.11. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%. Double chance: Ümraniyespor or draw 73%, Sivasspor or draw 58%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

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Analysis: Ümraniyespor – Sivasspor

Marcus Johansson · 24 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Seven unbeaten games underline Sivasspor's resilience, an edge they take into their clash with Ümraniyespor. The visitors have found the net in each of their last nine league outings, a testament to their control in possession. Despite this, the model tilts toward the hosts, giving them a 42% win probability, reflecting their direct and opportunistic style against Sivasspor's more measured approach.

The xG numbers offer further intrigue. Sivasspor's average of 1.3 expected goals per match eclipses Ümraniyespor's 0.87, yet the hosts boast a more robust defense with an xGA of 1.1 versus the visitors' 1.6. This suggests a tight affair, balanced on a knife-edge, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1 at 13%. The model's inclination towards low scoring aligns with the 43% probability for over 2.5 goals.

For those seeking value, under 0.5 goals is priced at 11.0 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, offering a tempting 4% edge at a 9% model rating. Alternatively, the under 2.5 market presents a 3% edge at odds of 1.8 with LeoVegas, given the 57% likelihood. The numbers speak: a cagey match, with limited scoring opportunities, is on the cards.

Ümraniyespor

Form LWDLW

League ranking xG #18xGA #6xT #14xP/match #14Points #17

Key players

Oguz YildirimRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.14
Cebio SoukouFxG 0.19 · xT 0.02
Tomislav GlumacCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11

Sivasspor

Form DDWDD

League ranking xG #8xGA #18xT #17xP/match #8Points #12

Key players

Uğur ÇiftçiLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.19
Musah MohammedCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.06
Rey ManajFxG 0.69 · xT -0.02

Final score

4 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Ümraniyespor 42% · Draw 30% · Sivasspor 27%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - ÜmraniyesporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,84fair 12,14-35 %

Miss

Matchresultat - SivassporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 10,34fair 16,04-36 %

Miss

Match prediction: Ümraniyespor – Sivasspor

Predicted score matrix

Sivasspor →

Ümraniyespor →

0–09.5%

0–19.7%

0–25.6%

0–32.1%

0–4+0.7%

1–011.3%

1–113.4%

1–27.2%

1–32.7%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.5%

2–18.3%

2–24.6%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–03.2%

3–13.6%

3–22.0%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.4%

4+–11.5%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-110%
4.0-09%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,28–1,11

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

227%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,557%

@1.80EV+2%

Over 2,543%

@1.89

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Ümraniyespor or draw (1X)68%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Ümraniyespor or draw (1X)68%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Melih Bostan to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Rey Manaj to score30%
Kamil Fidan to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 0.59% probability@11.00BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
Under 0.59% probability@11.00NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
Under 2.557% probability@1.80LeoVegasEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Ümraniyespor	X	2 · Sivasspor
Betsafe	2.24	3.19	3.00
LeoVegas	2.20	3.25	3.00
Nordicbet	2.24	3.19	3.00

Odds updated 24 Oct, 06:37

Odds movement

1-2 %

44 %39 %

2.25 → 2.20

X0 %

31 %26 %

3.25 → 3.25

2+3 %

33 %28 %

2.90 → 3.00

Over 2,50 %

52 %47 %

1.85 → 1.85

LeoVegas · 11 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Ümraniyespor 1Draw 0Sivasspor 1

Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

Key facts

Sivasspor are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
Sivasspor have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Ümraniyespor

Sivasspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Ümraniyespor (9–11)

Sivasspor (15–14)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Ümraniyespor

Sivasspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Ümraniyespor

Sivasspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Ümraniyespor	Sivasspor
Points	10	13
xPoints	14.4	15.6
xG per match	0.87	1.3
xGA per match	1.1	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.13	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.11	0.27

Playing style	Ümraniyespor	Sivasspor
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.32
Field tilt	0.44	0.44
xT per match	0.87	0.78
xTA per match	1.4	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	22	20
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.23
Entries into the box per match	10	11
Entries into the box against	15	14
Pass completion %	0.77	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.69
Passes per match	380	268
Passes against per match	420	343
Switches of play per match	26.4	25.9
Long balls per match	36	35

Set pieces	Ümraniyespor	Sivasspor
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.11
Corners per match	3.9	3.8
Corners against per match	4.2	5.3
xG per corner	0.01	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.29	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.62

Other	Ümraniyespor	Sivasspor
Throw-in control	0.63	0.7

The goalkeepers	Cihan Topaloglu (Ümraniyespor)	Arda Erdursun (Sivasspor)
Saves	31	20
Save %	76%	80%
xG prevented	51%	64%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Ümraniyespor

Fixtures, form & tips

Sivasspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor according to our model?

The model gives Ümraniyespor a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ümraniyespor 42%, draw 30%, Sivasspor 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor?

The model expects 1.28 goals (xG) for Ümraniyespor and 1.11 for Sivasspor, 2.40 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Ümraniyespor or draw (1X) 73%, Sivasspor or draw (X2) 58% and no draw (12) 70%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.