Pendikspor vs Kayserispor: Prediction & Odds (25 Oct 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig25 October 202617°15 km/h

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PendiksporPossession & high press

2–2

KayserisporPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Kayserispor (46%)Best value by the model: 1 · Pendikspor @ 4.33 (+18 %)

1 · Pendikspor 27%X 27%46% Kayserispor · 2

27%

46%

Prediction summary

Final score 2–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Pendikspor vs Kayserispor (Turkish 1. Lig, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Pendikspor win 27%, draw 27%, Kayserispor win 46%. Expected goals (xG): Pendikspor 1.05, Kayserispor 1.47. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%. Double chance: Pendikspor or draw 54%, Kayserispor or draw 73%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Pendikspor – Kayserispor

Anna Karlsson · 24 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT:

Kayserispor's attacking prowess is evident, having found the back of the net in 11 straight league games. This consistency is backed by their superior xG of 1.9 per match, easily outstripping Pendikspor's 0.97. The visitors' defense adds another layer of confidence, as they allow just under a goal per match on average (0.94 xGA), a stark contrast to the hosts' 1.3 xGA. With both teams employing a possession-based, high-press style, it's likely to be a tactical battle where Kayserispor's efficiency in front of goal could make the difference.

The stats from this season further emphasize the gap between the two sides: while Pendikspor have hit a rough patch with three consecutive losses, Kayserispor boast an unbeaten streak spanning seven league matches. Given these trajectories, it's hard to ignore that the visiting team enters this match with a psychological edge.

The model's numbers align with this assessment, rating Kayserispor as having a 46% chance of victory compared to Pendikspor's 27%. The most probable scoreline, a 1-1 draw, sits at 13%, yet the likelihood of a narrow Kayserispor win, such as 0-1 or 1-2, collectively stands at 20%. These numbers suggest a tight contest where the away side's superior form and firepower might just edge it. The probability of over 2.5 goals, at 46%, leans slightly towards the under, given the defensive capabilities both teams possess.

From a betting perspective, there's a clear value angle backing Pendikspor at odds of 4.13 with Betsafe and Nordicbet or 4.05 with LeoVegas, each offering a significant edge of around 10-12% according to the model. While the data strongly favors Kayserispor, those searching for value might see opportunity in the hosts defying the odds on home turf.

Pendikspor

Form DDLLL

League ranking xG #17xGA #12xT #10xP/match #17Points #18

Key players

Bekir KaradenizRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.15
Mesut OzdemirCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
Kerem KalafatRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.24

Kayserispor

Form WWWWD

League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #4xP/match #2Points #1

Key players

Gorkem SaglamCAMxG 0.18 · xT 0.27
Semih GulerCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.14
Benhur KeserRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.16

Final score

2 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Pendikspor 27% · Draw 27% · Kayserispor 46%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - PendiksporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 14,29fair 18,20-22 %

Miss

Matchresultat - KayserisporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,28fair 9,33-43 %

Miss

Match prediction: Pendikspor – Kayserispor

Predicted score matrix

Kayserispor →

Pendikspor →

0–08.4%

0–111.5%

0–28.7%

0–34.3%

0–4+2.2%

1–08.1%

1–112.8%

1–29.1%

1–34.5%

1–4+2.3%

2–04.4%

2–16.5%

2–24.8%

2–32.3%

2–4+1.2%

3–01.5%

3–12.3%

3–21.7%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.5%

4+–10.7%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-29%
4.0-29%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,05–1,47

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

120%

226%

321%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

@2.02EV+8%

Over 2,546%

@1.71

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Kayserispor to win46%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Kayserispor to win46%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Florent Hasani to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Florent Hasani to score31%
Mesut Özdemir to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Pendikspor27% probability@4.33BetsafeEV+18%reference odds
1 · Pendikspor27% probability@4.33NordicbetEV+18%reference odds
1 · Pendikspor27% probability@4.10LeoVegasEV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Pendikspor	X	2 · Kayserispor
Betsafe	EV+ 18% 4.33	3.62	1.71
LeoVegas	EV+ 12% 4.10	3.60	1.72
Nordicbet	EV+ 18% 4.33	3.62	1.71

Odds updated 25 Oct, 10:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Kayserispor win since 20 October — the odds have shortened from 1.85 to 1.71 (−8%).

1+20 %

26 %21 %

3.62 → 4.33

X0 %

28 %23 %

3.62 → 3.62

2-8 %

54 %49 %

1.85 → 1.71

Over 2,5-2 %

56 %51 %

1.74 → 1.71

Nordicbet · 7 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Pendikspor have lost 3 in a row.
Kayserispor are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
Kayserispor have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Pendikspor

Kayserispor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Pendikspor (12–21)

Kayserispor (24–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Pendikspor

Kayserispor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Pendikspor

Kayserispor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Pendikspor	Kayserispor
Points	10	26
xPoints	12.3	19.4
xG per match	0.97	1.9
xGA per match	1.3	0.94
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.31
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.05

Playing style	Pendikspor	Kayserispor
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.31
Field tilt	0.52	0.65
xT per match	0.96	1.1
xTA per match	1	0.96
Won balls, offensive half	22	20
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.2
Entries into the box per match	12	13
Entries into the box against	12	9
Pass completion %	0.78	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.79
Passes per match	374	440
Passes against per match	330	320
Switches of play per match	31.7	27.8
Long balls per match	44	35

Set pieces	Pendikspor	Kayserispor
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.06
Corners per match	4.4	4.7
Corners against per match	4.3	3.9
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.29	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.65	0.58

Other	Pendikspor	Kayserispor
Throw-in control	0.77	0.68

The goalkeepers	Utku Yuvakuran (Pendikspor)	Gokhan Degirmenci (Kayserispor)
Saves	19	19
Save %	59%	73%
xG prevented	29%	36%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Pendikspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Kayserispor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Pendikspor vs Kayserispor according to our model?

The model gives Kayserispor a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Pendikspor 27%, draw 27%, Kayserispor 46%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Pendikspor vs Kayserispor?

The model expects 1.05 goals (xG) for Pendikspor and 1.47 for Kayserispor, 2.52 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Pendikspor or draw (1X) 54%, Kayserispor or draw (X2) 73% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.