Muğlaspor vs Istanbulspor: Prediction & Odds (24 Oct 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig24 October 202615°10 km/h

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MuğlasporPossession control

5–0

IstanbulsporPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Muğlaspor (50%)

1 · Muğlaspor 50%X 28%22% Istanbulspor · 2

50%

28%

22%

Prediction summary

Final score 5–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Muğlaspor vs Istanbulspor (Turkish 1. Lig, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Muğlaspor win 50%, draw 28%, Istanbulspor win 22%. Expected goals (xG): Muğlaspor 1.58, Istanbulspor 1.01. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Muğlaspor or draw 78%, Istanbulspor or draw 50%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

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Analysis: Muğlaspor – Istanbulspor

Sofia Andersson · 24 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

A staggering 78% chance of avoiding defeat offers a compelling case for Muğlaspor against a struggling Istanbulspor. The model's lean aligns with recent form and the numbers back it up. Istanbulspor's three-game losing streak underscores the chasm between these teams, further highlighted by the hosts' superior points and expected goals metrics. Muğlaspor, with a possession-oriented style, should dictate the tempo and exploit their edge in xG and defensive consistency.

However, the most probable scorelines reflect a match that could be tighter than it appears at first glance. The 1-1 draw, having a 12% likelihood, could tempt bettors expecting Istanbulspor to break their poor run. Yet, Muğlaspor's defense, allowing just 1.3 xGA per match compared to the visitors' shaky 1.8, suggests a narrow home victory is plausible, particularly the 1-0 or 2-1 possibilities.

Despite both teams employing possession control strategies, Muğlaspor's overall efficiency is likely to expose Istanbulspor's vulnerabilities. The expected goals tally of 1.58 to 1.01 in the hosts' favor paints a picture of a side that can convert dominance into tangible results. A crucial point here is the potential for Muğlaspor to capitalize on Istanbulspor's defensive lapses, given the latter's higher xGA.

As for the goal market, it's a tight call. The under 2.5 goals has a slight 52% edge, factoring in the model's forecast and playing styles, which often see matches settled by fine margins. Considering both teams to score is evenly poised at 51%, this might steer some towards expecting a low-scoring encounter.

The model gives Muğlaspor a 50% win probability, reflecting a clear but not overwhelming edge. For those seeking to amplify returns, combining the home win with under 2.5 goals could be a shrewd play.

Muğlaspor

Form DDDLW

League ranking xG #9xGA #14xT #9xP/match #10Points #9

Key players

Ali BarakLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.21
Bilal CeylanRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.15
Daniel AvramovskiCAMxG 0.16 · xT 0.12

Istanbulspor

Form LWLLL

League ranking xG #16xGA #20xT #19xP/match #16Points #19

Key players

Alieu ChamLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.23
Dijlan AydinCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.05
Emrecan UzunhanCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.04

Final score

5 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Muğlaspor 50% · Draw 28% · Istanbulspor 22%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - MuglasporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,66fair 8,22-19 %

Miss

Matchresultat - IstanbulsporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 13,69fair 19,65-30 %

Miss

Match prediction: Muğlaspor – Istanbulspor

Predicted score matrix

Istanbulspor →

Muğlaspor →

0–07.8%

0–17.2%

0–23.8%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.4%

1–011.5%

1–112.3%

1–26.1%

1–32.1%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.3%

2–19.5%

2–24.8%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–04.9%

3–15.0%

3–22.5%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.7%

4+–12.8%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.2-09%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,58–1,01

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@1.80

Over 2,548%

@1.89

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Muğlaspor to win50%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Muğlaspor to win50%
Under 2.5 goals52%
Engin Poyraz Efe Yıldırım to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Engin Poyraz Efe Yıldırım to score32%
Elvin Mendy to be booked24%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Muğlaspor	X	2 · Istanbulspor
Betsafe	1.84	3.46	3.83
LeoVegas	1.95	3.25	3.50
Nordicbet	1.84	3.46	3.83

Odds updated 24 Oct, 12:37

Odds movement

1+4 %

50 %40 %

1.88 → 1.95

X-4 %

32 %22 %

3.40 → 3.25

2-3 %

33 %23 %

3.60 → 3.50

Over 2,5+3 %

54 %44 %

1.83 → 1.88

LeoVegas · 15 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Istanbulspor have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Muğlaspor

Istanbulspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Muğlaspor (13–14)

Istanbulspor (9–26)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Muğlaspor

Istanbulspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Muğlaspor

Istanbulspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Muğlaspor	Istanbulspor
Points	15	5
xPoints	14.9	12.7
xG per match	1.3	1.1
xGA per match	1.3	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.11
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.1	0.48

Playing style	Muğlaspor	Istanbulspor
Build-up efficiency	0.37	0.33
Field tilt	0.48	0.34
xT per match	0.97	0.73
xTA per match	0.83	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	23	20
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.16
Entries into the box per match	10	9
Entries into the box against	10	15
Pass completion %	0.74	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.7
Passes per match	308	301
Passes against per match	358	437
Switches of play per match	20.6	26.9
Long balls per match	30	36

Set pieces	Muğlaspor	Istanbulspor
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.05
Corners per match	4.2	3.3
Corners against per match	3.8	6
xG per corner	0.05	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.26	0.57
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.52

Other	Muğlaspor	Istanbulspor
Throw-in control	0.74	0.71

The goalkeepers	Ekrem Kilicarslan (Muğlaspor)	Alp Tutar (Istanbulspor)
Saves	23	34
Save %	62%	58%
xG prevented	41%	36%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Muğlaspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Istanbulspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Muğlaspor vs Istanbulspor according to our model?

The model gives Muğlaspor a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Muğlaspor 50%, draw 28%, Istanbulspor 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Muğlaspor vs Istanbulspor?

The model expects 1.58 goals (xG) for Muğlaspor and 1.01 for Istanbulspor, 2.59 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Muğlaspor or draw (1X) 78%, Istanbulspor or draw (X2) 50% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.