IFK Göteborg vs Djurgården Prediction: Away win 38% (28 Oct 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan28 October 2026 19:00 CETGamla Ullevi, Göteborg11°6,2 mm33 km/h

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IFK GöteborgPossession control

DjurgårdenPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Djurgården (38%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 1 · IFK Göteborg @ 3.90 (+38 %)

1 · IFK Göteborg 35%X 26%38% Djurgården · 2

35%

26%

38%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for IFK Göteborg vs Djurgården (Swedish Allsvenskan, Wednesday, 28 October 2026): IFK Göteborg win 35%, draw 26%, Djurgården win 38%. Expected goals (xG): IFK Göteborg 1.35, Djurgården 1.46. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: IFK Göteborg or draw 62%, Djurgården or draw 65%. Prediction updated Wednesday, 21 October 2026.

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Analysis: IFK Göteborg – Djurgården

Oscar Nilsson · 21 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

The text contains an unsupported claim about bookmaker odds not present in the facts. Corrected version:

Djurgården step into this matchup with a slight edge, both in historical context and current form. Despite Göteborg's unbeaten streak in their last seven league games, the visitors' ability to find the net in nine straight matches and their xG advantage of 1.8 to Göteborg's 1.6 suggests a possible edge in offensive firepower. The historical head-to-head record, although a small sample, also leans towards Djurgården with four wins in seven encounters.

Göteborg's recent resilience is not to be ignored, especially their ability to maintain possession and control the tempo. However, Djurgården's high pressing style poses a direct challenge to that control. The model's probabilities give the visitors a slight advantage with a 38% chance of winning compared to Göteborg's 35%, and this aligns with their superior xPoints tally of 41.7 against the hosts' 37.4.

The most likely scorelines further illustrate the tight nature of this contest. A 1-1 draw is the single most probable outcome at 12%, yet Djurgården's 1-2 win at 9% and 0-1 win at 8% reflect their potential to edge out a victory. With rain expected, the conditions could suppress scoring slightly, but the model still favors over 2.5 goals at 53%, and a 57% chance of both teams finding the back of the net.

Given all this, a narrow victory for Djurgården, possibly 2-1, seems on the cards. The over 2.5 goals market presents a slight value play, especially for those considering the visitors' consistent scoring run, reflecting the attacking capabilities and historical tendencies of both sides.

IFK Göteborg

Form WWWWD

League ranking xG #6xGA #8xT #7xP/match #5Points #8

Key players

Felix ErikssonRBxG 0.05 · xT 0.13
Alexander JallowLBxG 0.06 · xT 0.14
August ErlingmarkCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.09

Djurgården

Form WWLWW

League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #5xP/match #3Points #2

Key players

Piotr JohanssonRBxG 0.07 · xT 0.12
Hampus FinndellCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
Oskar FalleniusLWxG 0.34 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: IFK Göteborg – Djurgården

Predicted score matrix

Djurgården →

IFK Göteborg →

0–06.4%

0–18.4%

0–26.4%

0–33.1%

0–4+1.6%

1–07.8%

1–112.2%

1–28.6%

1–34.2%

1–4+2.1%

2–05.5%

2–18.0%

2–25.8%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.4%

3–02.5%

3–13.6%

3–22.6%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.6%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.2-18%
5.1-08%

Expected goals

1,35–1,46

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

–

Over 2,553%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Djurgården or draw (X2)65%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Djurgården or draw (X2)65%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Kristian Lien to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Kristian Lien to score26%
Matias Siltanen to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · IFK Göteborg35% probability@3.90LeoVegasEV+38%reference odds
X · Draw26% probability@4.00LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · IFK Göteborg	X	2 · Djurgården
LeoVegas	EV+ 38% 3.90	EV+ 5% 4.00	1.80

Odds updated 21 Oct, 20:38

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

IFK Göteborg 1Draw 2Djurgården 4

Goals: 5–15 (⌀ 2,9)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

Key facts

Djurgården dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 7 meetings.
IFK Göteborg are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
Djurgården have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

IFK Göteborg

Djurgården

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

IFK Göteborg (34–43)

Djurgården (50–21)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

IFK Göteborg

Djurgården

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

IFK Göteborg

Djurgården

The teams in numbers

Performance	IFK Göteborg	Djurgården
Points	36	47
xPoints	37.4	41.7
xG per match	1.6	1.8
xGA per match	1.2	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.28	0.36
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.13

Playing style	IFK Göteborg	Djurgården
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.37
Field tilt	0.53	0.55
xT per match	1.4	1.4
xTA per match	1.4	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	33	31
Pressing intensity	0.53	0.53
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.25
Entries into the box per match	16	15
Entries into the box against	13	13
Pass completion %	0.79	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.78
Passes per match	379	445
Passes against per match	372	362
Switches of play per match	15.9	16.1
Long balls per match	31	29

Set pieces	IFK Göteborg	Djurgården
xG from free kicks	0.17	0.18
Corners per match	6.8	5.9
Corners against per match	5.1	3.8
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.64	0.63

Other	IFK Göteborg	Djurgården
Throw-in control	0.55	0.64

The goalkeepers	Elis Bishesari (IFK Göteborg)	Jacob Rinne (Djurgården)
Saves	38	74
Save %	57%	80%
xG prevented	32%	56%
Claims	56 (85%)	104 (90%)

Teams & more matches this round

IFK Göteborg

Fixtures, form & tips

Djurgården

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins IFK Göteborg vs Djurgården according to our model?

The model gives Djurgården a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: IFK Göteborg 35%, draw 26%, Djurgården 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in IFK Göteborg vs Djurgården?

The model expects 1.35 goals (xG) for IFK Göteborg and 1.46 for Djurgården, 2.81 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

IFK Göteborg or draw (1X) 62%, Djurgården or draw (X2) 65% and no draw (12) 74%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.