Swedish AllsvenskanBorås arena, Borås

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    ElfsborgElfsborg
    1–3
    The model's lean: 2 · Sirius (53%)
    SiriusSirius

    Elfsborg – Sirius · Swedish Allsvenskan

    1 · Elfsborg 23%X 24%53% Sirius · 2
    Final score
    1 – 3
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Elfsborg 23% · Draw 24% · Sirius 53%

    Match prediction: Elfsborg – Sirius

    Predicted score matrix

    Sirius →
    Elfsborg →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.3%
    0–19.3%
    0–27.8%
    0–34.2%
    0–4+2.4%
    1
    1–06.9%
    1–111.9%
    1–29.4%
    1–35.0%
    1–4+2.9%
    2
    2–04.3%
    2–17.0%
    2–25.6%
    2–33.0%
    2–4+1.8%
    3
    3–01.7%
    3–12.8%
    3–22.3%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.7%
    4+
    4+–00.7%
    4+–11.1%
    4+–20.9%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.0-19%
    4. 4.0-28%
    5. 5.2-17%
    Expected goals
    1,21–1,61
    Both teams to score
    56%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,547%
    @2.25EV+5%
    Over 2,553%
    @1.61

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Sirius to win53%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    37%

    Fair odds

    2.70

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 2 legs

    Balanced

    • Sirius to win53%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%

    Combined probability

    29%

    Fair odds

    3.41

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 2 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score56%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%

    Combined probability

    44%

    Fair odds

    2.25

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Sirius53% probability@2.00Bet365EV+6%
    • Under 2.547% probability@2.25Bet365EV+5%
    • Under 3.569% probability@1.50Bet365EV+3%
    Bookmaker1 · ElfsborgX2 · Sirius
    Bet3653.603.60
    EV+ 6%
    2.00

    Odds updated 19 Jul, 15:51

    Odds movement

    1+3 %
    30 %25 %

    3.50 → 3.60

    X+3 %
    29 %24 %

    3.50 → 3.60

    2-2 %
    49 %44 %

    2.05 → 2.00

    Over 2,50 %
    61 %56 %

    1.61 → 1.61

    Bet365 · 3 recorded price levels · 19/07/2026 → 19/07/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Elfsborg vs Sirius according to our model?

    The model gives Sirius a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Elfsborg 23%, draw 24%, Sirius 53%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.