Swedish Allsvenskan3Arena, Stockholm

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    HammarbyHammarby
    4–0
    The model's lean: 1 · Hammarby (72%)
    Best value by the model: 2 · Degerfors @ 15.00 (+80 %)
    DegerforsDegerfors

    Hammarby – Degerfors · Swedish Allsvenskan

    1 · Hammarby 72%X 16%12% Degerfors · 2
    Final score
    4 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Hammarby 72% · Draw 16% · Degerfors 12%

    Match prediction: Hammarby – Degerfors

    Predicted score matrix

    Degerfors →
    Hammarby →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.7%
    0–13.1%
    0–21.6%
    0–30.5%
    0–4+0.2%
    1
    1–08.0%
    1–18.3%
    1–23.9%
    1–31.3%
    1–4+0.4%
    2
    2–09.8%
    2–19.6%
    2–24.7%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–07.8%
    3–17.7%
    3–23.8%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–08.3%
    4+–18.1%
    4+–24.0%
    4+–31.3%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-010%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.1-18%
    4. 4.1-08%
    5. 5.3-08%
    Expected goals
    2,39–0,98
    Both teams to score
    57%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,4
    Under 2,535%
    @2.70
    Over 2,565%
    @1.44

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Hammarby to win72%
    • Over 1.5 goals85%

    Combined probability

    60%

    Fair odds

    1.66

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 2 legs

    Balanced

    • Hammarby to win72%
    • Over 2.5 goals65%

    Combined probability

    50%

    Fair odds

    1.98

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 2 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score57%
    • Over 2.5 goals65%

    Combined probability

    49%

    Fair odds

    2.05

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Degerfors12% probability@15.00Bet365EV+80%
    • Both teams to score: Yes57% probability@1.95Bet365EV+11%
    • X · Draw16% probability@6.50Bet365EV+5%
    Bookmaker1 · HammarbyX2 · Degerfors
    Bet3651.20
    EV+ 5%
    6.50
    EV+ 80%
    15.00

    Odds updated 19 Jul, 15:51

    Odds movement

    10 %
    81 %76 %

    1.20 → 1.20

    X+4 %
    17 %12 %

    6.25 → 6.50

    2+15 %
    9 %4 %

    13.00 → 15.00

    Over 2,5-2 %
    67 %62 %

    1.48 → 1.44

    Bet365 · 2 recorded price levels · 19/07/2026 → 19/07/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Hammarby vs Degerfors according to our model?

    The model gives Hammarby a 72% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hammarby 72%, draw 16%, Degerfors 12%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.