Hammarby vs Sirius Prediction: Home win 52% (29 Oct 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan29 October 2026 18:30 CET3Arena, Stockholm9°22 km/h

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HammarbyPossession & high press

SiriusBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Hammarby (52%)

1 · Hammarby 52%X 27%21% Sirius · 2

52%

27%

21%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Hammarby vs Sirius (Swedish Allsvenskan, Thursday, 29 October 2026): Hammarby win 52%, draw 27%, Sirius win 21%. Expected goals (xG): Hammarby 1.86, Sirius 1.03. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Hammarby or draw 79%, Sirius or draw 48%. Prediction updated Thursday, 22 October 2026.

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Analysis: Hammarby – Sirius

Anna Karlsson · 22 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Hammarby enters this match with a statistical edge in expected goals, posting an xG of 2.1 per match against Sirius's 1.8. This offensive advantage is particularly relevant against a Sirius side that remains unbeaten in their last five league games. The hosts boast an impressive 67% win record on home soil, which bolsters their model-backed 52% probability of winning this clash.

The goal-scoring potential in this matchup is further highlighted by the fact that the fixture has historically seen an average of 3.4 goals per meeting. While Hammarby has dominated with four wins in the last seven head-to-heads, this small sample size tempers the weight one might place on historical dominance alone. Still, the difference in expected goals and goals allowed per match leans in favor of the home team, as they allow only 0.91 goals per game compared to Sirius’s 1.1.

Despite Sirius's recent unbeaten streak, Hammarby's playing style of possession and high press could well unsettle their balanced, physical approach. The tactical matchup might turn the tide in Hammarby's favor, especially in front of their home crowd. The model's most likely scorelines, 1-1 and 1-0, suggest a tight game, but the 55% probability for both teams to score indicates an open contest.

With over 2.5 goals also pegged at 55%, bettors might find value in betting on the over, particularly if they consider that Hammarby’s offensive prowess could exploit any defensive lapses from Sirius. This potential for goals, combined with Hammarby's home advantage and pressing style, makes a 2-1 outcome a probable conclusion.

Given their statistical edge at home and higher xG, Hammarby presents an opportunity for those seeking value. While not a guarantee, the numbers align in favor of the hosts, making this a calculated risk worth considering.

Hammarby

Form DWWLW

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #2Points #3

Key players

Nahir BesaraCAMxG 0.38 · xT 0.34
Tesfaldet TekieCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.20
Montader MadjedRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.28

Sirius

Form WWWWD

League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #9xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Melker HeierCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.13
Victor EkströmRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.03
Henrik Rönnlöf CastegrenRBxG 0.07 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Hammarby – Sirius

Predicted score matrix

Sirius →

Hammarby →

0–05.9%

0–15.4%

0–23.0%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.3%

1–010.0%

1–111.0%

1–25.5%

1–31.9%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.6%

2–19.9%

2–25.1%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–05.9%

3–16.1%

3–23.2%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–04.2%

4+–14.4%

4+–22.2%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.2-010%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,86–1,03

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

224%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,545%

–

Over 2,555%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Hammarby to win52%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Hammarby to win52%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Paulos Abraham to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Paulos Abraham to score27%
Mohamed Soumah to be booked23%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Hammarby 4Draw 1Sirius 2

Goals: 14–10 (⌀ 3,4)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

Key facts

Hammarby dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 2 in 7 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.4 goals per meeting on average.
IK Sirius FK are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Hammarby win 67% of their home matches all-time (57 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Hammarby

Sirius

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Hammarby (50–21)

Sirius (55–30)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Hammarby

Sirius

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Hammarby

Sirius

The teams in numbers

Performance	Hammarby	Sirius
Points	46	55
xPoints	43.2	44.3
xG per match	2.1	1.8
xGA per match	0.91	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.4	0.28
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.18

Playing style	Hammarby	Sirius
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.35
Field tilt	0.77	0.45
xT per match	1.7	1.4
xTA per match	0.87	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	37	30
Pressing intensity	0.58	0.53
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.21
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.22
Entries into the box per match	20	14
Entries into the box against	8	15
Pass completion %	0.87	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.83	0.78
Passes per match	565	394
Passes against per match	313	438
Switches of play per match	11	16.5
Long balls per match	24	31

Set pieces	Hammarby	Sirius
xG from free kicks	0.25	0.2
Corners per match	6.7	5.7
Corners against per match	2.6	5.4
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.52	0.35
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.54

Other	Hammarby	Sirius
Throw-in control	0.71	0.61

The goalkeepers	Warner Hahn (Hammarby)	David Celic (Sirius)
Saves	46	76
Save %	69%	72%
xG prevented	39%	45%
Claims	86 (98%)	123 (91%)

Teams & more matches this round

Hammarby

Fixtures, form & tips

Sirius

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Hammarby vs Sirius according to our model?

The model gives Hammarby a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hammarby 52%, draw 27%, Sirius 21%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Hammarby vs Sirius?

The model expects 1.86 goals (xG) for Hammarby and 1.03 for Sirius, 2.89 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Hammarby or draw (1X) 79%, Sirius or draw (X2) 48% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.