Örgryte vs Mjällby Prediction: Away win 50% (29 Oct 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan29 October 2026 19:00 CETGamla Ullevi, Göteborg12°26 km/h

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ÖrgryteBalanced & physical

MjällbyPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Mjällby (50%)

1 · Örgryte 25%X 25%50% Mjällby · 2

25%

50%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Örgryte vs Mjällby (Swedish Allsvenskan, Thursday, 29 October 2026): Örgryte win 25%, draw 25%, Mjällby win 50%. Expected goals (xG): Örgryte 1.16, Mjällby 1.68. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Örgryte or draw 50%, Mjällby or draw 75%. Prediction updated Thursday, 22 October 2026.

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Analysis: Örgryte – Mjällby

Erik Lindberg · 22 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Mjällby's recent form might give them the edge as they visit Örgryte, though the single head-to-head match this year saw the hosts take the victory. The head-to-head sample is too small to weigh heavily against the broader form and metrics, which lean towards the visitors.

Mjällby's control-oriented style could be crucial here, as their possession-based approach has been effective in maintaining a solid defense, reflected in their lower expected goals against (xGA) of 1.7 per match compared to Örgryte's 2.0. The visitors have also accumulated more actual points this season, 23 to the hosts' 18, solidifying their position as the statistical favorites in this matchup.

Despite Mjällby's slight edge in expected goals (xG) per match at 1.2 compared to Örgryte's 1.0, both teams have vulnerabilities in defense. With a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% likelihood of both teams scoring, the numbers point to a potentially open game. The most likely scorelines suggest a 1-1 or a narrow 1-2 victory for Mjällby, balancing both the potential for goals and the defensive steadiness of the visitors.

For those seeking value, Mjällby AIF to win at 2.00 with Betsson offers a compelling angle, aligning with the model's 50% probability. While it may not be a high-flying spectacle, Mjällby's calculated approach should see them edge out Örgryte, likely wrapping up the game with a 1-2 victory. This bet combines a disciplined analysis with a touch of risk in acknowledging the narrow margins predicted by the model.

Örgryte

Form DLLLW

League ranking xG #14xGA #15xT #14xP/match #13Points #15

Key players

Daniel PaulsonRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.14
Noah ChristofferssonFxG 0.38 · xT 0.03
Tobias SanaCAMxG 0.15 · xT 0.25

Mjällby

Form DDLDL

League ranking xG #12xGA #13xT #8xP/match #14Points #12

Key players

Jesper GustavssonCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.07
Viktor GustafsonCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.17
Elliot StroudCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.49

Match prediction: Örgryte – Mjällby

Predicted score matrix

Mjällby →

Örgryte →

0–06.2%

0–19.5%

0–28.2%

0–34.6%

0–4+2.8%

1–06.5%

1–111.7%

1–29.6%

1–35.3%

1–4+3.3%

2–03.9%

2–16.6%

2–25.5%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.9%

3–01.5%

3–12.6%

3–22.1%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.7%

4+–00.6%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-210%
3.0-110%
4.0-28%
5.2-17%

Expected goals

1,16–1,68

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

–

Over 2,554%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Mjällby to win50%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Mjällby to win50%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Jacob Bergström to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Jacob Bergström to score25%
Jesper Gustavsson to be booked23%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Örgryte 1Draw 0Mjällby 0

Goals: 2–0 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Örgryte

Mjällby

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Örgryte (29–54)

Mjällby (28–40)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Örgryte

Mjällby

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Örgryte

Mjällby

The teams in numbers

Performance	Örgryte	Mjällby
Points	18	23
xPoints	25.9	24.9
xG per match	1	1.2
xGA per match	2	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.3	0.42

Playing style	Örgryte	Mjällby
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.31
Field tilt	0.33	0.5
xT per match	1.1	1.4
xTA per match	1.6	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	25	34
Pressing intensity	0.51	0.56
Pressing efficiency	0.2	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.24
Entries into the box per match	12	14
Entries into the box against	17	15
Pass completion %	0.78	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.76
Passes per match	338	399
Passes against per match	494	394
Switches of play per match	14.9	17.6
Long balls per match	26	31

Set pieces	Örgryte	Mjällby
xG from free kicks	0.12	0.24
Corners per match	3.8	4.9
Corners against per match	6.2	4.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.34
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.56

Other	Örgryte	Mjällby
Throw-in control	0.58	0.56

The goalkeepers	Hampus Gustafsson (Örgryte)	Robin Wallinder (Mjällby)
Saves	100	71
Save %	65%	69%
xG prevented	38%	47%
Claims	137 (90%)	112 (89%)

Teams & more matches this round

Örgryte

Fixtures, form & tips

Mjällby

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Örgryte vs Mjällby according to our model?

The model gives Mjällby a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Örgryte 25%, draw 25%, Mjällby 50%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Örgryte vs Mjällby?

The model expects 1.16 goals (xG) for Örgryte and 1.68 for Mjällby, 2.84 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Örgryte or draw (1X) 50%, Mjällby or draw (X2) 75% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.