Mantova vs Cremonese Prediction: Home win 38% (27 Oct 2026)

Serie B27 October 2026Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova12°6 km/h

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MantovaPossession control

CremonesePossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Mantova (38%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.30 (+0 %)

1 · Mantova 38%X 30%31% Cremonese · 2

38%

30%

31%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Mantova vs Cremonese (Serie B, Tuesday, 27 October 2026): Mantova win 38%, draw 30%, Cremonese win 31%. Expected goals (xG): Mantova 1.54, Cremonese 1.31. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Mantova or draw 69%, Cremonese or draw 62%. Prediction updated Monday, 19 October 2026.

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Analysis: Mantova – Cremonese

Anna Karlsson · 19 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

In the two encounters since 2023 between these sides, Mantova and Cremonese have each claimed a victory, reflecting a balanced but small sample that offers limited predictive power. Instead, the focus shifts to the hosts' momentum and statistical edges in this Serie B campaign. Mantova's current form and superior points tally of 14 to Cremonese’s 6 suggest a team more capable of converting chances into results.

Mantova's playing style leans heavily on possession control, which could disrupt Cremonese's high-press strategy, particularly as the visitors have struggled to translate their pressing into goals, averaging just 0.89 xG per match. Despite this, Mantova's defense has shown vulnerability, conceding an average of 1.3 xGA per match. This leaky backline might just offer Cremonese the openings they need, although the visitors' own defensive record of 1.1 xGA per match isn't much more reassuring.

The model gives Mantova a slight edge with a 38% chance of victory compared to Cremonese’s 31%, highlighting the home advantage. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 12% reflects the closely matched nature of this contest, with 2-1 and 1-0 also in the mix at 9% each. Despite a 54% chance for over 2.5 goals, both teams' moderate xG figures suggest that scoring won't come easily.

The sharpest angle lies with Mantova's favor from the bookmakers. The model's lean towards a home win aligns with their better form and scoring potential, making them an attractive option in the betting markets. With a slight edge statistically and a home crowd behind them, Mantova could be poised to capitalize, especially if they can exploit Cremonese's defensive lapses.

Mantova

Form DWDWL

League ranking xG #9xGA #12xT #7xP/match #11Points #2

Key players

Francesco RuoccoLWxG 0.36 · xT 0.12
Simone TrimboliCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.12
Stefano CellaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.04

Cremonese

Form WDDDL

League ranking xG #19xGA #8xT #8xP/match #19Points #17

Key players

Federico BonazzoliRWxG 0.64 · xT 0.02
Matteo BianchettiCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
Simone PontissoCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Mantova – Cremonese

Predicted score matrix

Cremonese →

Mantova →

0–06.1%

0–17.2%

0–25.0%

0–32.2%

0–4+1.0%

1–08.5%

1–112.0%

1–27.6%

1–33.4%

1–4+1.5%

2–06.8%

2–19.0%

2–25.9%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.1%

3–03.5%

3–14.6%

3–23.0%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.9%

4+–12.5%

4+–21.7%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,54–1,31

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

–

Over 2,554%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Mantova or draw (1X)68%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Mantova or draw (1X)68%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Rareş Andrei Ilie to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Manuel De Luca to score27%
Simone Trimboli to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw30% probability@3.30LeoVegasEV+0%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Mantova	X	2 · Cremonese
Betsafe	2.42	3.25	2.72
LeoVegas	2.40	EV+ 0% 3.30	2.70
Nordicbet	2.42	3.25	2.72

Odds updated 21 Oct, 21:38

Odds movement

10 %

41 %36 %

2.40 → 2.40

X-1 %

30 %25 %

3.35 → 3.30

20 %

37 %32 %

2.70 → 2.70

LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Mantova 1Draw 0Cremonese 1

Goals: 3–4 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Mantova

Cremonese

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Mantova (13–8)

Cremonese (6–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Mantova

Cremonese

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Mantova

Cremonese

The teams in numbers

Performance	Mantova	Cremonese
Points	14	6
xPoints	9.3	7
xG per match	1.3	0.89
xGA per match	1.3	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.45	0.1
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.12	0.31

Playing style	Mantova	Cremonese
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.32
Field tilt	0.5	0.63
xT per match	1	0.99
xTA per match	0.95	0.69
Won balls, offensive half	28	28
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.24
Entries into the box per match	12	11
Entries into the box against	11	8
Pass completion %	0.76	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.77
Passes per match	356	429
Passes against per match	358	364
Switches of play per match	28.9	28.4
Long balls per match	34	31

Set pieces	Mantova	Cremonese
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.01
Corners per match	4.2	4
Corners against per match	5.2	4
xG per corner	0.04	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.31	0.39
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.46

Other	Mantova	Cremonese
Throw-in control	0.72	0.72

The goalkeepers	Francesco Bardi (Mantova)	Federico Agazzi (Cremonese)
Saves	18	10
Save %	69%	63%
xG prevented	47%	26%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Mantova

Fixtures, form & tips

Cremonese

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Mantova vs Cremonese according to our model?

The model gives Mantova a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mantova 38%, draw 30%, Cremonese 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Mantova vs Cremonese?

The model expects 1.54 goals (xG) for Mantova and 1.31 for Cremonese, 2.86 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Mantova or draw (1X) 69%, Cremonese or draw (X2) 62% and no draw (12) 70%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.