Modena vs Cesena Prediction: Home win 65% (24 Oct 2026)

Serie B24 October 2026Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena13°16 km/h

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ModenaPossession & high press

CesenaLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Modena (65%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 1.72 (+1 %)

1 · Modena 65%X 20%15% Cesena · 2

65%

20%

15%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Modena vs Cesena (Serie B, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Modena win 65%, draw 20%, Cesena win 15%. Expected goals (xG): Modena 2.16, Cesena 0.90. Most likely score: 2-0 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Modena or draw 85%, Cesena or draw 35%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Modena – Cesena

Anna Karlsson · 19 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The recent head-to-head record between Modena and Cesena might raise a few eyebrows. Despite Modena's statistical dominance in Serie B this season, they haven't managed to edge out a victory in their last four encounters against Cesena, drawing two and losing two. Yet, with the small sample size of just four matches, it's crucial to weigh these past results against the current form and numbers that favor the hosts.

This season, Modena's form is compelling. With a superior xG of 1.5 per match compared to Cesena’s 1.0, they have shown a consistent knack for creating scoring opportunities. Their aggressive high-pressing style should put Cesena's low defensive tactics under considerable strain. The expected goals against (xGA) further highlights Modena's edge, posting a lower average of 1.0 compared to the visitors’ 1.1, indicating a more robust defensive setup.

When it comes to the most likely outcomes, Modena stands out with a 65% chance of winning, and a 2-0 victory seems plausible at 11%. The stats also suggest a 59% likelihood of the game seeing over 2.5 goals despite the forecasted rain, which might typically dampen scoring. However, Modena's ability to control possession and apply pressure could very well lead to a goal-rich game, consistent with an expected goals total of 3.06 combined.

For bettors, the over 2.5 goals market is attracting attention. There's a precise 0% edge value at odds of 1.7 offered by both Betsafe and Nordicbet, which aligns with the model’s 59% probability. Even with the expected wet conditions, considering Modena's potential to break through Cesena’s defenses, this bet presents a promising angle.

Modena

Form LDWWL

League ranking xG #5xGA #3xT #2xP/match #9Points #4

Key players

Simone SantoroCMxG 0.17 · xT 0.16
Giuseppe CasoLWxG 0.36 · xT 0.42
Bryant NielingCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.12

Cesena

Form DDDLD

League ranking xG #15xGA #7xT #18xP/match #6Points #13

Key players

Cristian ShpendiFxG 0.37 · xT 0.07
Andrea CiofiRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.05
Dimitri BisoliRWxG 0.04 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Modena – Cesena

Predicted score matrix

Cesena →

Modena →

0–05.0%

0–14.0%

0–21.9%

0–30.6%

0–4+0.2%

1–09.9%

1–19.4%

1–24.1%

1–31.2%

1–4+0.3%

2–010.9%

2–19.8%

2–24.4%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.4%

3–07.9%

3–17.1%

3–23.2%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–07.0%

4+–16.3%

4+–22.8%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.1-19%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,16–0,90

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,541%

@2.02

Over 2,559%

@1.72EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Modena to win65%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Modena to win65%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Giuseppe Ambrosino Di Bruttopilo to score45%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Giuseppe Ambrosino Di Bruttopilo to score45%
Mihajlo Ilić to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 2.559% probability@1.72BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
Over 2.559% probability@1.72NordicbetEV+1%reference odds
Over 3.537% probability@2.75BetsafeEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Modena	X	2 · Cesena
Betsafe	1.52	4.05	5.50
LeoVegas	1.52	4.10	5.40
Nordicbet	1.52	4.05	5.50

Odds updated 21 Oct, 15:36

Odds movement

1-4 %

63 %58 %

1.58 → 1.52

X+4 %

25 %20 %

3.95 → 4.10

2+10 %

20 %15 %

4.90 → 5.40

Over 2,5-2 %

57 %52 %

1.73 → 1.70

LeoVegas · 6 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Modena 0Draw 2Cesena 2

Goals: 2–4 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Modena

Cesena

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Modena (12–8)

Cesena (8–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Modena

Cesena

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Modena

Cesena

The teams in numbers

Performance	Modena	Cesena
Points	13	8
xPoints	10	10.2
xG per match	1.5	1
xGA per match	1	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.27	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.11	0.23

Playing style	Modena	Cesena
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.32
Field tilt	0.66	0.4
xT per match	1.5	0.65
xTA per match	0.79	0.79
Won balls, offensive half	28	22
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.2
Entries into the box per match	17	9
Entries into the box against	9	14
Pass completion %	0.81	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.68
Passes per match	423	336
Passes against per match	322	418
Switches of play per match	33.4	26.3
Long balls per match	38	33

Set pieces	Modena	Cesena
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.06
Corners per match	5.7	4.4
Corners against per match	4.4	6
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.62	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.63

Other	Modena	Cesena
Throw-in control	0.79	0.76

The goalkeepers	Leandro Chichizola (Modena)	Alessandro Siano (Cesena)
Saves	19	24
Save %	70%	73%
xG prevented	45%	66%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Modena

Fixtures, form & tips

Cesena

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Modena vs Cesena according to our model?

The model gives Modena a 65% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Modena 65%, draw 20%, Cesena 15%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Modena vs Cesena?

The model expects 2.16 goals (xG) for Modena and 0.90 for Cesena, 3.06 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Modena or draw (1X) 85%, Cesena or draw (X2) 35% and no draw (12) 80%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.