01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Hellas Verona to win47%
- Under 3.5 goals72%
Serie BStadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Verona11°12 km/h
Läs på svenska
Hellas VeronaPossession & high pressvs
PisaBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Hellas Verona (47%)
Hellas Verona vs Pisa · Serie B
1 · Hellas Verona 47%X 26%27% Pisa · 2
47%
26%
27%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Hellas Verona vs Pisa (Serie B, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Hellas Verona win 47%, draw 26%, Pisa win 27%. Expected goals (xG): Hellas Verona 1.48, Pisa 1.21. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Hellas Verona or draw 73%, Pisa or draw 53%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Hellas Verona – Pisa
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
The key number here is the 47% probability assigned to a home win. Despite Verona trailing Pisa in points, the model leans towards the hosts, highlighting their possession-heavy style and high pressing as factors that could tip the scales in their favor. Their xG per match at 2.1 indicates a stronger attacking potential compared to Pisa's 1.8, which aligns with their more aggressive approach.
However, Pisa's advantage in actual points and a slightly superior xGA figure of 0.93 suggests a resilient defense, capable of absorbing Verona's pressure. The visitors' balanced and physical play might disrupt Verona's rhythm, hinting at a tightly contested affair. The most likely scorelines, 1-1 and 1-0, reflect this tension, emphasizing a narrow margin for error.
With an over 2.5 goals probability at 50% and both teams to score at 55%, the goal market leans finely balanced. For value hunters, the edge lies in backing Verona at odds of 2.25 with LeoVegas, offering a 6% edge per the model. This bet capitalizes on the model's slight preference for the home side, where the numbers suggest a 1-0 or 2-1 victory might just be in reach for Verona.
Hellas VeronaForm WLWLD
League ranking xG #1xGA #4xT #1xP/match #2Points #12
Key players
- Daniel MosqueraFxG 1.31 · xT 0.10
- Davide De BattistiLBxG 0.06 · xT 0.22
- Gabriele ZappaRBxG 0.20 · xT 0.20
PisaForm WLDWW
League ranking xG #3xGA #1xT #5xP/match #1Points #3
Key players
- Stefano MoreoFxG 0.42 · xT 0.14
- Mattéo TramoniLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.41
- Samuele AngoriLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.15
Match prediction: Hellas Verona – Pisa
Predicted score matrix
Pisa →
Hellas Verona →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.2%
0–17.9%
0–25.0%
0–32.0%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–09.7%
1–112.5%
1–27.4%
1–33.0%
1–4+1.2%
2
2–07.4%
2–19.0%
2–25.4%
2–32.2%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–03.7%
3–14.4%
3–22.7%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–01.9%
4+–12.3%
4+–21.4%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.2-07%
Expected goals
1,48–1,21
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
118%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,550%
@1.92
Over 2,550%
@1.80
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Hellas Verona to win47%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Samuele Mulattieri to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Samuele Mulattieri to score26%
- Arturo Calabresi to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Hellas Verona47% probability@2.20BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
- 1 · Hellas Verona47% probability@2.20NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
- 1 · Hellas Verona47% probability@2.18LeoVegasEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Hellas Verona | X | 2 · Pisa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 4% 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 3% 2.18 | 3.35 | 3.00 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 4% 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
Odds updated 22 Oct, 06:37
Odds movement
1-5 %
44 %39 %
2.30 → 2.18
X+6 %
30 %25 %
3.15 → 3.35
2+3 %
33 %28 %
2.90 → 3.00
LeoVegas · 19 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Hellas Verona
Pisa
Hellas Verona (14–12)
Pisa (14–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Hellas Verona
Pisa
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Hellas Verona
Pisa
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Hellas Verona | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 13 |
| xPoints | 12.7 | 13.8 |
| xG per match | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| xGA per match | 1 | 0.93 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.28 | 0.3 |
| Playing style | Hellas Verona | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.67 | 0.52 |
| xT per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.78 | 0.97 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 409 | 357 |
| Passes against per match | 315 | 384 |
| Switches of play per match | 29.8 | 20.6 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 22 |
| Set pieces | Hellas Verona | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| Corners against per match | 2.5 | 5.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.47 | 0.54 |
| Other | Hellas Verona | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.8 | 0.67 |
| The goalkeepers | Nicola Leali (Hellas Verona) | Alessandro Confente (Pisa) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 10 | 15 |
| Save % | 63% | 63% |
| xG prevented | 58% | 51% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Hellas Verona vs Pisa according to our model?
The model gives Hellas Verona a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hellas Verona 47%, draw 26%, Pisa 27%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Hellas Verona vs Pisa?
The model expects 1.48 goals (xG) for Hellas Verona and 1.21 for Pisa, 2.69 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Hellas Verona or draw (1X) 73%, Pisa or draw (X2) 53% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.