Empoli vs Vicenza Prediction: Home win 41% (23 Oct 2026)

Serie B23 October 2026Stadio Carlo Castellani, Empoli14°12 km/h

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EmpoliLow block & direct

VicenzaCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Empoli (41%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 1.93 (+7 %)

1 · Empoli 41%X 26%33% Vicenza · 2

41%

26%

33%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Empoli vs Vicenza (Serie B, Friday, 23 October 2026): Empoli win 41%, draw 26%, Vicenza win 33%. Expected goals (xG): Empoli 1.53, Vicenza 1.37. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Empoli or draw 67%, Vicenza or draw 59%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Empoli – Vicenza

Sofia Andersson · 19 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Empoli's slight edge in form and the bookies' odds paint a picture of a tight contest against Vicenza. The hosts have the upper hand with a 41% probability of winning, marginally leading Vicenza's 33%. Despite this, the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, which reflects the narrow gap in both teams' performance metrics.

Empoli's direct style contrasts with Vicenza's counter-attacking approach. The hosts have collected 7 points this season compared to the visitors' 6, and they also lead in expected points, 8.5 to 7.8. However, Vicenza generates more expected goals per match, 1.1 against Empoli's 0.89, indicating their ability to create opportunities despite fewer points accrued.

Defensively, Empoli appears more vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.7 expected goals per match, slightly higher than Vicenza's 1.5. This defensive frailty could keep the game open and could potentially lead to goals for both sides. Indeed, the model suggests a 55% chance for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, underlining a potential for a lively affair.

Betting angles suggest the over 2.5 goals market holds value. With LeoVegas offering odds of 1.833, and both Betsafe and Nordicbet at 1.82, the model sees a positive edge, particularly with LeoVegas. The numbers indicate a slight discrepancy in the market, which can be exploited by those confident in a more open match.

Expect a competitive fixture with Empoli likely edging it. Still, the real value might lie in the prospect of goals, with the over-2.5 market offering a lucrative angle amidst the tight odds for a winner.

Empoli

Form WLLLD

League ranking xG #18xGA #20xT #20xP/match #15Points #15

Key players

Edoardo SaporitiFxG 0.21 · xT 0.08
Stiven ShpendiFxG 0.24 · xT -0.01
Gerard YepesCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.01

Vicenza

Form DDLLD

League ranking xG #12xGA #16xT #6xP/match #17Points #18

Key players

Gabriele MonciniFxG 0.46 · xT 0.03
Tommaso CorazzaLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.27
Riccardo MarchizzaCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Empoli – Vicenza

Predicted score matrix

Vicenza →

Empoli →

0–05.8%

0–17.2%

0–25.2%

0–32.4%

0–4+1.1%

1–08.1%

1–111.9%

1–27.9%

1–33.6%

1–4+1.7%

2–06.4%

2–18.8%

2–26.0%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.3%

3–03.3%

3–14.5%

3–23.1%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.7%

4+–01.8%

4+–12.4%

4+–21.7%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-08%
4.1-28%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,53–1,37

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,545%

@1.88

Over 2,555%

@1.93EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Empoli or draw (1X)66%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Empoli or draw (1X)66%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Lars Joseph Ceesay to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Lars Joseph Ceesay to score27%
Marco Carraro to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 2.555% probability@1.93PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
Over 2.555% probability@1.83LeoVegasEV+2%reference odds
Over 2.555% probability@1.82BetsafeEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Empoli	X	2 · Vicenza
Betsafe	2.32	3.20	2.85
LeoVegas	2.35	3.25	2.88
Nordicbet	2.32	3.20	2.85
Pinnacle	2.38	3.30	EV+ 1% 3.03

Odds updated 22 Oct, 06:36

Odds movement

1-3 %

42 %37 %

2.45 → 2.38

X0 %

31 %26 %

3.29 → 3.30

2+3 %

34 %29 %

2.94 → 3.03

Over 2,50 %

52 %47 %

1.94 → 1.93

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Empoli

Vicenza

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Empoli (7–11)

Vicenza (9–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Empoli

Vicenza

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Empoli

Vicenza

The teams in numbers

Performance	Empoli	Vicenza
Points	7	6
xPoints	8.5	7.8
xG per match	0.89	1.1
xGA per match	1.7	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.05	0.28
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.19

Playing style	Empoli	Vicenza
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.32
Field tilt	0.3	0.44
xT per match	0.44	1
xTA per match	1.3	0.94
Won balls, offensive half	21	26
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.22
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.18
Entries into the box per match	8	11
Entries into the box against	15	12
Pass completion %	0.75	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.72
Passes per match	317	309
Passes against per match	444	372
Switches of play per match	23.4	25.2
Long balls per match	31	33

Set pieces	Empoli	Vicenza
xG from free kicks	0	0.02
Corners per match	4	6.3
Corners against per match	3.9	4.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.07	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.34
First touch, defensive corners %	0.3	0.64

Other	Empoli	Vicenza
Throw-in control	0.73	0.66

The goalkeepers	Jacopo Seghetti (Empoli)	Riccardo Gagno (Vicenza)
Saves	31	34
Save %	76%	69%
xG prevented	54%	44%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Empoli

Fixtures, form & tips

Vicenza

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Empoli vs Vicenza according to our model?

The model gives Empoli a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Empoli 41%, draw 26%, Vicenza 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Empoli vs Vicenza?

The model expects 1.53 goals (xG) for Empoli and 1.37 for Vicenza, 2.90 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Empoli or draw (1X) 67%, Vicenza or draw (X2) 59% and no draw (12) 74%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.