Arezzo vs Benevento Prediction: Away win 37% (24 Oct 2026)

Serie B24 October 202613°3,4 mm8 km/h

ArezzoBalanced & physical

BeneventoPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Benevento (37%)

Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.

1 · Arezzo 32%X 31%37% Benevento · 2

32%

31%

37%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Arezzo vs Benevento (Serie B, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Arezzo win 32%, draw 31%, Benevento win 37%. Expected goals (xG): Arezzo 1.13, Benevento 1.36. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Arezzo or draw 63%, Benevento or draw 68%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Arezzo – Benevento

Marcus Johansson · 19 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Benevento's slight edge in the model probabilities, a 37% chance of winning compared to Arezzo's 32%, reflects their overall superior metrics. The visitors consistently control possession and have a more efficient defense, conceding just 1.1 expected goals against (xGA) per match, compared to the host's leaky 1.6 xGA. This defensive solidity, combined with an xG of 1.3 per match—higher than Arezzo's 1.0—tilts the scales in Benevento's favor.

Arezzo's balanced and physical approach might disrupt Benevento's rhythm, but their lower xPoints of 8.2 against Benevento's 11.1 suggest they haven't capitalized on their opportunities as effectively as their opponents. The most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 13%, but a 0-1 away win, the next likeliest at 11%, aligns with the visitors' tendency to control and convert possession into slender victories.

The under 2.5 goals market also sees a slight lean, with just a 45% chance for over 2.5 goals. If you're seeking value, Benevento stands out as the more likely victor given their stature in both attacking and defensive metrics.

Arezzo

Form LWLDW

League ranking xG #14xGA #17xT #9xP/match #16Points #9

Key players

Alessandro ArenaRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.14
Samuele RighettiLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.23
Emiliano PattarelloRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.23

Benevento

Form LWWWD

League ranking xG #8xGA #6xT #15xP/match #4Points #8

Key players

Mattia MaitaCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.13
Antonio PriscoCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.06
Christian KouanFxG 0.15 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Arezzo – Benevento

Predicted score matrix

Benevento →

Arezzo →

0–08.7%

0–110.9%

0–27.6%

0–33.4%

0–4+1.6%

1–09.0%

1–113.1%

1–28.6%

1–33.9%

1–4+1.8%

2–05.3%

2–17.2%

2–24.9%

2–32.2%

2–4+1.0%

3–02.0%

3–12.7%

3–21.8%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.7%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-09%
4.0-09%
5.1-29%

Expected goals

1,13–1,36

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,555%

@1.73

Over 2,545%

@2.02

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Benevento or draw (X2)69%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Benevento or draw (X2)69%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Francesco Paolo Salvemini to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Luca Chierico to score22%
Mattia Maita to be booked20%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Arezzo	X	2 · Benevento
Betsafe	2.95	3.10	2.35
LeoVegas	2.90	3.15	2.35
Nordicbet	2.95	3.10	2.35

Odds updated 22 Oct, 06:37

Odds movement

1+5 %

35 %30 %

2.75 → 2.90

X+3 %

32 %27 %

3.05 → 3.15

2-2 %

41 %36 %

2.40 → 2.35

LeoVegas · 15 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Arezzo

Benevento

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Arezzo (8–14)

Benevento (10–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Arezzo

Benevento

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Arezzo

Benevento

The teams in numbers

Performance	Arezzo	Benevento
Points	10	11
xPoints	8.2	11.1
xG per match	1	1.3
xGA per match	1.6	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.34
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.44	0.06

Playing style	Arezzo	Benevento
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.23
Field tilt	0.44	0.53
xT per match	0.98	0.84
xTA per match	1.2	0.87
Won balls, offensive half	22	21
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.26
Entries into the box per match	11	12
Entries into the box against	13	9
Pass completion %	0.78	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.75
Passes per match	337	349
Passes against per match	405	361
Switches of play per match	35.2	28.6
Long balls per match	43	31

Set pieces	Arezzo	Benevento
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.02
Corners per match	4.4	5.3
Corners against per match	4.2	5.9
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.35
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.59

Other	Arezzo	Benevento
Throw-in control	0.72	0.71

The goalkeepers	Alessandro Nunziante (Arezzo)	Gianmarco Vannucchi (Benevento)
Saves	18	12
Save %	56%	63%
xG prevented	30%	41%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Arezzo

Fixtures, form & tips

Benevento

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Arezzo vs Benevento according to our model?

The model gives Benevento a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Arezzo 32%, draw 31%, Benevento 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Arezzo vs Benevento?

The model expects 1.13 goals (xG) for Arezzo and 1.36 for Benevento, 2.49 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Arezzo or draw (1X) 63%, Benevento or draw (X2) 68% and no draw (12) 69%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.