Südtirol vs Sampdoria Prediction: Away win 37% (24 Oct 2026)

Serie B24 October 2026Stadio Druso, Bolzano11°0,6 mm8 km/h

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SüdtirolCounter-attacks & crosses

SampdoriaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Sampdoria (37%)Soft draw

1 · Südtirol 33%X 30%37% Sampdoria · 2

33%

30%

37%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Südtirol vs Sampdoria (Serie B, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Südtirol win 33%, draw 30%, Sampdoria win 37%. Expected goals (xG): Südtirol 1.27, Sampdoria 1.24. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Südtirol or draw 63%, Sampdoria or draw 67%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Südtirol – Sampdoria

Erik Lindberg · 19 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: Südtirol's counter-attacking flair clashes with Sampdoria's high-press approach in a Serie B match that promises defensive discipline over fireworks. With a narrow edge in model probabilities, Sampdoria is tipped as the slight favorite at 37%, compared to the hosts' 33%. Both teams are expected to control their respective zones, yet the numbers suggest a cagey contest more than an attacking showcase.

Recent form paints a contrasting picture. Südtirol's 12 points give them a tangible advantage in the standings, though their expected goals per match (0.77) and expected points (8.5) tell a more cautious tale. Their reliance on crosses and counter-attacks might struggle against Sampdoria's possession-heavy strategy, which boasts a superior xG of 1.4 per match. Despite the visitors' poor start in terms of points, accumulating only four, their xPoints suggest they have been unlucky.

The head-to-head record offers an intriguing subplot. With only four matches since 2023, the sample is small and offers limited insights. Both sides have shared the spoils evenly, with two victories apiece, underlining the unpredictable nature of their recent encounters. However, given the expected goals and playing styles, a 1-1 draw has a 13% probability and aligns with the script of a tightly contested affair.

For the betting desk, the sharpest angle lies in the over/under market. With the over 2.5 goals probability at 46%, there's a slight lean towards a low-scoring match, matching the 1-1 or narrow 1-0 outcomes favored by the model.

Südtirol

Form WDWDL

League ranking xG #20xGA #15xT #19xP/match #14Points #5

Key players

Simone TronchinCAMxG 0.03 · xT 0.02
Fabio RispoliCAMxG 0.10 · xT 0.06
Andrea GiorginiCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.05

Sampdoria

Form LLWLL

League ranking xG #6xGA #9xT #4xP/match #10Points #20

Key players

Mattia VitiCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.01
Lorenzo InsigneLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.13
Liam HendersonCMxG 0.21 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Südtirol – Sampdoria

Predicted score matrix

Sampdoria →

Südtirol →

0–08.5%

0–19.7%

0–26.2%

0–32.6%

0–4+1.0%

1–09.9%

1–113.2%

1–27.9%

1–33.3%

1–4+1.3%

2–06.6%

2–18.1%

2–25.1%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.9%

3–02.8%

3–13.5%

3–22.1%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.2%

4+–11.5%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.0-110%
4.0-08%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,27–1,24

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

@1.72

Over 2,546%

@2.13

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Sampdoria or draw (X2)63%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Sampdoria or draw (X2)63%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Tobias Lauritsen to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Lorenzo Anghelè to score34%
Salvatore Esposito to be booked21%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Südtirol	X	2 · Sampdoria
Betsafe	2.80	3.00	2.52
LeoVegas	2.75	3.10	2.50
Nordicbet	2.80	3.00	2.52
Pinnacle	2.98	2.93	2.66

Odds updated 22 Oct, 06:37

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Südtirol 2Draw 0Sampdoria 2

Goals: 5–4 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Südtirol

Sampdoria

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Südtirol (9–6)

Sampdoria (7–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Südtirol

Sampdoria

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Südtirol

Sampdoria

The teams in numbers

Performance	Südtirol	Sampdoria
Points	12	4
xPoints	8.5	9.9
xG per match	0.77	1.4
xGA per match	1.3	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.15	0.31
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.28	0.21

Playing style	Südtirol	Sampdoria
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.3
Field tilt	0.37	0.64
xT per match	0.48	1.1
xTA per match	0.99	0.78
Won balls, offensive half	16	30
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.24
Entries into the box per match	5	16
Entries into the box against	13	10
Pass completion %	0.81	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.7
Passes per match	374	372
Passes against per match	387	372
Switches of play per match	18.6	23.3
Long balls per match	25	26

Set pieces	Südtirol	Sampdoria
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.04
Corners per match	2.7	6.2
Corners against per match	6.4	3.3
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.32	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.61

Other	Südtirol	Sampdoria
Throw-in control	0.7	0.78

The goalkeepers	Alessandro Plizzari (Südtirol)	Peter Vindahl Jensen (Sampdoria)
Saves	25	15
Save %	81%	52%
xG prevented	55%	33%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Südtirol

Fixtures, form & tips

Sampdoria

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Südtirol vs Sampdoria according to our model?

The model gives Sampdoria a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Südtirol 33%, draw 30%, Sampdoria 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Südtirol vs Sampdoria?

The model expects 1.27 goals (xG) for Südtirol and 1.24 for Sampdoria, 2.52 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Südtirol or draw (1X) 63%, Sampdoria or draw (X2) 67% and no draw (12) 70%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.