Palermo vs Carrarese Prediction: Home win 71% (25 Oct 2026)

Serie B25 October 2026Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo19°18 km/h

Läs på svenska

PalermoCounter-attacks & crosses

CarraresePossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Palermo (71%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 2.28 (+4 %)

1 · Palermo 71%X 16%13% Carrarese · 2

71%

16%

13%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Palermo vs Carrarese (Serie B, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Palermo win 71%, draw 16%, Carrarese win 13%. Expected goals (xG): Palermo 2.42, Carrarese 1.04. Most likely score: 2-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Palermo or draw 87%, Carrarese or draw 29%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Palermo – Carrarese

Oscar Nilsson · 19 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Palermo's recent form is impossible to ignore. With three consecutive victories and a knack for finding the net in eight straight league games, the hosts are riding a wave of momentum. Their attacking prowess is further highlighted by an expected goals (xG) figure of 2.42 for this matchup, suggesting they'll create plenty of scoring opportunities against Carrarese.

On the flip side, Carrarese, known for their possession-based style, have struggled to translate their control into tangible results. With only 7 points compared to Palermo's 19, the visitors find themselves in dire need of a turnaround. Their expected goals per match stand at just 1.0, indicating a potential struggle to penetrate Palermo's defense.

The head-to-head record, albeit a small sample of four matches, shows Palermo having the upper hand with two wins, a draw, and only one loss. This historical edge, combined with their current form, makes the Rosanero strong favorites. The model probabilities echo this sentiment with a 71% chance of a home victory.

Given the statistical landscape, a 2-1 or 2-0 scoreline seems most probable, with Palermo likely to capitalize on their counter-attacking strategy. The over 2.5 goals market is favored at 67%, and both teams scoring is rated at 59%. However, the sharp angle lies in the over 3.5 goals market, where Betsafe and Nordicbet offer odds of 2.28, presenting a 4% value edge according to the model. For those seeking even higher returns, Betsafe's over 4.5 goals at 3.85 also holds a 3% edge.

In this clash, Palermo's firepower and form suggest they will dominate, but for those eyeing the betting markets, the over 3.5 goals at 2.28 with Betsafe and Nordicbet stands out as the most compelling opportunity.

Palermo

Form WDWWW

League ranking xG #2xGA #11xT #3xP/match #3Points #1

Key players

Filippo RanocchiaCDMxG 0.10 · xT 0.21
Pietro CeccaroniCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
Mattia BaniCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.08

Carrarese

Form LLLWW

League ranking xG #13xGA #14xT #16xP/match #5Points #14

Key players

Tommaso RubinoLWxG 0.50 · xT 0.01
Jonas Jakob RouhiLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.17
Filippo OlianaCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.02

Match prediction: Palermo – Carrarese

Predicted score matrix

Carrarese →

Palermo →

0–03.4%

0–13.0%

0–21.7%

0–30.6%

0–4+0.2%

1–07.4%

1–18.1%

1–24.1%

1–31.4%

1–4+0.5%

2–09.2%

2–19.6%

2–25.0%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–07.5%

3–17.7%

3–24.0%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.4%

4+–08.0%

4+–18.3%

4+–24.3%

4+–31.5%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-110%
2.2-09%
3.1-18%
4.3-18%
5.3-07%

Expected goals

2,42–1,04

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,5

110%

219%

322%

419%

5+27%

Under 2,533%

@2.38

Over 2,567%

@1.52EV+2%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Palermo to win71%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Palermo to win71%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Dennis Tørset Johnsen to score37%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Dennis Tørset Johnsen to score37%
Matthias Braunöder to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 3.545% probability@2.28BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
Over 3.545% probability@2.28NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
Over 4.527% probability@3.85BetsafeEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Palermo	X	2 · Carrarese
Betsafe	EV+ 1% 1.42	4.50	6.10
LeoVegas	EV+ 2% 1.44	4.50	5.75
Nordicbet	EV+ 1% 1.42	4.50	6.10
Pinnacle	1.40	5.04	6.70

Odds updated 22 Oct, 06:37

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Palermo 2Draw 1Carrarese 1

Goals: 7–2 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.

Key facts

Palermo come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Palermo have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Palermo win 62% of their home matches all-time (42 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Palermo

Carrarese

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Palermo (16–7)

Carrarese (6–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Palermo

Carrarese

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Palermo

Carrarese

The teams in numbers

Performance	Palermo	Carrarese
Points	19	7
xPoints	12.4	10.3
xG per match	2	1
xGA per match	1.3	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.12	0.3

Playing style	Palermo	Carrarese
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.3
Field tilt	0.51	0.29
xT per match	1.2	0.73
xTA per match	1.1	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	24	20
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.18
Entries into the box per match	13	10
Entries into the box against	12	16
Pass completion %	0.77	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.66
Passes per match	366	299
Passes against per match	346	483
Switches of play per match	23.1	16.4
Long balls per match	29	21

Set pieces	Palermo	Carrarese
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.01
Corners per match	4.2	4.5
Corners against per match	5.5	5.5
xG per corner	0.01	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.48
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.61

Other	Palermo	Carrarese
Throw-in control	0.7	0.69

The goalkeepers	Mattia Fortin (Palermo)	Filippo Oliana (Carrarese)
Saves	12	10
Save %	75%	100%
xG prevented	42%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Palermo

Fixtures, form & tips

Carrarese

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Palermo vs Carrarese according to our model?

The model gives Palermo a 71% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Palermo 71%, draw 16%, Carrarese 13%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Palermo vs Carrarese?

The model expects 2.42 goals (xG) for Palermo and 1.04 for Carrarese, 3.46 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Palermo or draw (1X) 87%, Carrarese or draw (X2) 29% and no draw (12) 84%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.