01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Modena to win55%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
Serie BStadio Romeo Menti, Vicenza12°5 km/h
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VicenzaCounter-attacks & crossesvs
ModenaPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Modena (55%)
Vicenza vs Modena · Serie B
1 · Vicenza 22%X 23%55% Modena · 2
22%
23%
55%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Vicenza vs Modena (Serie B, Tuesday, 27 October 2026): Vicenza win 22%, draw 23%, Modena win 55%. Expected goals (xG): Vicenza 1.09, Modena 2.02. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Vicenza or draw 45%, Modena or draw 78%. Prediction updated Monday, 19 October 2026.
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Analysis: Vicenza – Modena
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: Modena's commanding 55% win probability against Vicenza points to a clear edge for the visitors. Though the most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-2 each hold a 10% chance, the expected goals tally leans heavily towards Modena at 2.02 compared to the hosts' 1.09. This suggests a game where the visitors' possession and high press could dominate, especially against Vicenza's reliance on counter-attacks and crosses.
The points and xPoints metrics both favor Modena, with a healthy gap of 13 to 6 in actual points and 10.0 to 7.8 in expected points. Defensive solidity further differentiates the sides; Modena concedes only 1.0 xGA per match, while Vicenza allows 1.5, indicating potential vulnerabilities for the home side against a more clinical opponent.
For punters, there's value in backing Modena, given the model's lean and the visitors' superior form. The over 2.5 goals market also presents a viable angle with a 60% probability, aligning with both teams' tendencies and the likely scenario of Modena breaking down Vicenza's less robust defense. Expect Modena to take this one, perhaps by a 1-2 scoreline.
VicenzaForm DDLLD
League ranking xG #12xGA #16xT #6xP/match #17Points #18
Key players
- Gabriele MonciniFxG 0.46 · xT 0.03
- Tommaso CorazzaLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.27
- Riccardo MarchizzaCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.10
ModenaForm LDWWL
League ranking xG #5xGA #3xT #2xP/match #9Points #4
Key players
- Simone SantoroCMxG 0.17 · xT 0.16
- Giuseppe CasoLWxG 0.36 · xT 0.42
- Bryant NielingCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.12
Match prediction: Vicenza – Modena
Predicted score matrix
Modena →
Vicenza →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.7%
0–18.7%
0–29.1%
0–36.1%
0–4+4.9%
1
1–04.6%
1–110.1%
1–29.9%
1–36.7%
1–4+5.4%
2
2–02.6%
2–15.3%
2–25.4%
2–33.6%
2–4+2.9%
3
3–01.0%
3–11.9%
3–22.0%
3–31.3%
3–4+1.1%
4+
4+–00.3%
4+–10.7%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.1-210%
- 3.0-29%
- 4.0-19%
- 5.1-37%
Expected goals
1,09–2,02
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
113%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,540%
–
Over 2,560%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Modena to win55%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Giuseppe Ambrosino Di Bruttopilo to score43%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Giuseppe Ambrosino Di Bruttopilo to score43%
- Marco Carraro to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Modena55% probability@2.25BetsafeEV+24%reference odds
- 2 · Modena55% probability@2.25LeoVegasEV+24%reference odds
- 2 · Modena55% probability@2.25NordicbetEV+24%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Vicenza | X | 2 · Modena |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.85 | 3.35 | EV+ 24% 2.25 |
| LeoVegas | 2.88 | 3.40 | EV+ 24% 2.25 |
| Nordicbet | 2.85 | 3.35 | EV+ 24% 2.25 |
Odds updated 20 Oct, 21:38
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Vicenza
Modena
Vicenza (9–15)
Modena (12–8)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Vicenza
Modena
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Vicenza
Modena
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Vicenza | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 13 |
| xPoints | 7.8 | 10 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| Playing style | Vicenza | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.44 | 0.66 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1.5 |
| xTA per match | 0.94 | 0.79 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 309 | 423 |
| Passes against per match | 372 | 322 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.2 | 33.4 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 38 |
| Set pieces | Vicenza | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 6.3 | 5.7 |
| Corners against per match | 4.7 | 4.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.34 | 0.62 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.64 | 0.61 |
| Other | Vicenza | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.66 | 0.79 |
| The goalkeepers | Riccardo Gagno (Vicenza) | Leandro Chichizola (Modena) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 34 | 19 |
| Save % | 69% | 70% |
| xG prevented | 44% | 45% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Arezzo – Benevento24 October 2026
- Cremonese – Juve Stabia24 October 2026
- Südtirol – Sampdoria24 October 2026
- Catanzaro – Ascoli24 October 2026
- Avellino – Padova24 October 2026
- Modena – Cesena24 October 2026
- Virtus Entella – Mantova24 October 2026
- Palermo – Carrarese25 October 2026
- Hellas Verona – Pisa25 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Vicenza vs Modena according to our model?
The model gives Modena a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vicenza 22%, draw 23%, Modena 55%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Vicenza vs Modena?
The model expects 1.09 goals (xG) for Vicenza and 2.02 for Modena, 3.11 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Vicenza or draw (1X) 45%, Modena or draw (X2) 78% and no draw (12) 77%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.