01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Córdoba to win48%
- Under 3.5 goals78%
Segunda División26°10 km/h
Läs på svenska
CórdobaPossession controlvs
CD TenerifePossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Córdoba (48%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.94 (+10 %)
Córdoba vs CD Tenerife · Segunda División
1 · Córdoba 48%X 29%23% CD Tenerife · 2
48%
29%
23%
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Córdoba – CD Tenerife
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Córdoba's home clash with CD Tenerife is set to be a tactical duel, marked by both teams' preference for possession control. The model gives a slight edge to the hosts with a 48% win probability, underlined by a stronger xG per match of 1.5 compared to Tenerife’s 0.88. This suggests Córdoba can create more scoring opportunities, but their finishing consistency will be key.
Despite the small head-to-head sample size, Córdoba has beaten Tenerife in both encounters since 2023. Still, the visitors hold a slight season advantage in actual points (11 to 6), though the underlying xPoints tell a closer tale, favoring Tenerife by only a narrow margin. This differential suggests that while Tenerife has been efficient, Córdoba’s performances could soon translate into results.
The expected goals tally reveals a tighter game, with Córdoba at 1.44 and Tenerife at 0.97, pointing towards a match decided by narrow margins. Most likely scorelines hover around a 1-0 home win or a 1-1 draw, both at 13%. With the over 2.5 goals probability at just 43%, the game is predicted to be a low-scoring affair.
For bettors seeking value, the under 2.5 goals market offers an attractive proposition. LeoVegas provides odds of 1.88, presenting a 7% edge per the model's 57% estimate. Meanwhile, Betsafe and Betsson offer 1.85 odds, each with a 5% edge. A disciplined approach here aligns with my preference for robust, well-grounded plays.
CórdobaForm LLLWL
League ranking xG #2xGA #16xT #2xP/match #11Points #18
Key players
- Diego Pertejo CansecoFxG 0.29 · xT -0.04
- Cristian Carracedo GarcíaRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.33
- Isma RuizCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.06
CD TenerifeForm LDWLD
League ranking xG #20xGA #7xT #22xP/match #4Points #9
Key players
- Enric GallegoFxG 0.59 · xT 0.01
- Ignacio Gil de Pareja VicentLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.11
- Jesus Alvarez AguadoCMxG 0.05 · xT -0.03
Match prediction: Córdoba – CD Tenerife
Predicted score matrix
CD Tenerife →
Córdoba →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.3%
0–18.4%
0–24.2%
0–31.4%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–012.5%
1–112.9%
1–26.1%
1–32.0%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–09.3%
2–19.0%
2–24.4%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–04.5%
3–14.3%
3–22.1%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–02.2%
4+–12.1%
4+–21.0%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-013%
- 3.0-09%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.2-19%
Expected goals
1,44–0,97
Both teams to score
48%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,409%
121%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,557%
@1.94EV+5%
Over 2,543%
@1.88
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Córdoba to win48%
- Under 2.5 goals57%
- Diego Pertejo Canseco to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score48%
- Over 2.5 goals43%
- Enrique Gallego Puigsech to score22%
- Juan Jose Sanchez Romero to be booked26%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.557% probability@1.94PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
- Under 2.557% probability@1.88LeoVegasEV+7%reference odds
- Under 1.530% probability@3.50Paddy PowerEV+6%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Córdoba | X | 2 · CD Tenerife |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.95 | 3.35 | 3.65 |
| Betsson | 1.92 | 3.30 | 3.75 |
| LeoVegas | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.65 |
| Nordicbet | 1.95 | 3.35 | 3.65 |
| Paddy Power | 1.85 | 3.40 | 3.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.91 | EV+ 5% 3.60 | 3.91 |
Odds updated 1 Oct, 18:35
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesCórdoba 2Draw 0CD Tenerife 0
Goals: 6–2 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Córdoba
CD Tenerife
Córdoba (10–16)
CD Tenerife (8–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Córdoba
CD Tenerife
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Córdoba
CD Tenerife
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Córdoba | CD Tenerife |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 11 |
| xPoints | 9.5 | 10.7 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 0.88 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 0.97 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.29 | 0.14 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| Playing style | Córdoba | CD Tenerife |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.62 | 0.45 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 0.53 |
| xTA per match | 0.81 | 0.84 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.19 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 7 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| Passes per match | 333 | 298 |
| Passes against per match | 241 | 461 |
| Switches of play per match | 29.4 | 26 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 35 |
| Set pieces | Córdoba | CD Tenerife |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 4.8 | 3.5 |
| Corners against per match | 2.2 | 3.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.49 | 0.46 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.61 |
| Other | Córdoba | CD Tenerife |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.66 |
| The goalkeepers | Guilherme Fernandes (Córdoba) | Daniel Martín Fernández (CD Tenerife) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 13 | 10 |
| Save % | 59% | 53% |
| xG prevented | 29% | 24% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Eldense – Real Oviedo2 October 2026
- Sabadell – FC Andorra3 October 2026
- Albacete – Eibar3 October 2026
- Cádiz – Leganés3 October 2026
- Almería – Burgos3 October 2026
- Las Palmas – Real Valladolid4 October 2026
- Sporting Gijón – Celta Fortuna4 October 2026
- Castellon – Ceuta4 October 2026
- Real Sociedad B – Granada4 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Córdoba vs CD Tenerife according to our model?
The model gives Córdoba a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Córdoba 48%, draw 29%, CD Tenerife 23%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.