Leganés vs Granada: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Segunda División20 September 202623°8 km/h

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LeganésLow block & direct

GranadaPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Leganés (40%)Best value by the model: 2 · Granada @ 4.10 (+22 %)

1 · Leganés 40%X 30%30% Granada · 2

40%

30%

Analysis: Leganés – Granada

Sofia Andersson · 15 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

The odds for a Granada win at 3.75 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer considerable value, boasting a 12% edge according to the model. Given the likelihood of a tight contest, the 1-1 draw stands out as the most probable outcome. The analysis leans slightly toward under 2.5 goals, aligning with both teams' defensive setups and projected goal figures.

A key figure in this matchup is Leganés's unbeaten streak over their last five league games, which contrasts sharply with Granada's recent results. Despite the hosts' strong form, the teams are closely matched in probabilities, with Leganés given a slight edge at 40% to win, versus Granada’s 30%. Both teams have shown vulnerability in defense, but Leganés's direct style may be more disruptive against Granada's possession-heavy approach.

The expected goals figures present an interesting narrative. Leganés's xG of 0.73 per match is notably lower than Granada's 0.94, suggesting the visitors create more opportunities. However, the hosts' recent form and tactical discipline have translated into better point accumulation. In head-to-head encounters, albeit a small sample of two matches, Leganés holds a perfect record. Yet, the xPoints slightly favor Granada, highlighting the hosts' overperformance relative to their underlying numbers.

Leganés

Form WDWWD

League ranking xG #21xGA #16xT #16xP/match #14Points #8

Key players

Marvelous Antolín GarzónLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.14
Naim GarciaRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.04
Zico BuurmeesterRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.03

Granada

Form LDWWL

League ranking xG #15xGA #11xT #17xP/match #9Points #10

Key players

Pedro AlemanFxG 0.22 · xT 0.15
Sergio López GalacheRBxG 0.05 · xT 0.35
Gerard GumbauCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.02

Match prediction: Leganés – Granada

Predicted score matrix

Granada →

Leganés →

0–010.5%

0–110.2%

0–25.6%

0–32.0%

0–4+0.7%

1–012.1%

1–113.6%

1–27.0%

1–32.4%

1–4+0.8%

2–07.7%

2–18.2%

2–24.3%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.5%

3–03.2%

3–13.4%

3–21.8%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.4%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-012%
3.0-010%
4.0-110%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,24–1,05

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

010%

122%

227%

320%

412%

5+8%

Under 2,560%

@1.58

Over 2,540%

@2.38

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Leganés or draw (1X)69%
Under 3.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Leganés or draw (1X)69%
Under 2.5 goals60%
Gonzalo Julián Melero Manzanares to score18%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Gonzalo Julián Melero Manzanares to score18%
Izan González Muñoz to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Granada30% probability@4.10PinnacleEV+22%reference odds
2 · Granada30% probability@3.80Paddy PowerEV+14%reference odds
2 · Granada30% probability@3.75BetsafeEV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Leganés	X	2 · Granada
Betsafe	2.02	3.00	EV+ 12% 3.75
Betsson	2.02	3.00	EV+ 12% 3.75
Nordicbet	2.02	3.00	EV+ 12% 3.75
Paddy Power	1.91	3.10	EV+ 14% 3.80
Pinnacle	2.01	3.18	EV+ 22% 4.10

Odds updated 17 Sept, 11:37

Odds movement

1-1 %

49 %44 %

2.03 → 2.01

X+2 %

33 %28 %

3.12 → 3.18

20 %

26 %21 %

4.12 → 4.10

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 15/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Leganés 2Draw 0Granada 0

Goals: 3–0 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

Key facts

CD Leganes are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Leganés

Granada

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Leganés (3–1)

Granada (5–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Leganés

Granada

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Leganés

Granada

The teams in numbers

Performance	Leganés	Granada
Points	8	7
xPoints	5.1	5.5
xG per match	0.73	0.94
xGA per match	1.3	0.99
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.05	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.09	0.18

Playing style	Leganés	Granada
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.3
Field tilt	0.24	0.5
xT per match	0.7	0.68
xTA per match	1.5	0.87
Won balls, offensive half	15	23
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.23
Entries into the box per match	8	11
Entries into the box against	16	10
Pass completion %	0.76	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.64
Passes per match	309	297
Passes against per match	466	350
Switches of play per match	19.7	30
Long balls per match	25	43

Set pieces	Leganés	Granada
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.01
Corners per match	1.5	4.3
Corners against per match	7.4	2.8
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.67	0.65
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.55

Other	Leganés	Granada
Throw-in control	0.68	0.67

The goalkeepers	Luca Zinedine Zidane Fernández (Leganés)	Raul Lizoain (Granada)
Saves	9	13
Save %	100%	77%
xG prevented	100%	58%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Leganés

Fixtures, form & tips

Granada

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Leganés vs Granada according to our model?

The model gives Leganés a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Leganés 40%, draw 30%, Granada 30%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.