Segunda División19°14 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    FC AndorraFC AndorraPossession & high press
    vs
    Sporting GijónSporting GijónPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · FC Andorra (40%)Best value by the model: 2 · Sporting Gijón @ 3.59 (+8 %)

    FC Andorra vs Sporting Gijón · Segunda División

    1 · FC Andorra 40%X 30%30% Sporting Gijón · 2

    Analysis: FC Andorra – Sporting Gijón

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    FC Andorra's recent form is troubling: four consecutive losses paint a bleak picture. Yet, the model shows a 40% probability for a home win, emphasizing their strong xG metrics of 1.7 per game compared to Gijón's 1.0. This suggests Andorra creates more quality chances, even if results have been lacking. The most likely outcomes point towards a draw or narrow win for the hosts, with both 1-1 and 2-1 scorelines highly rated.

    Despite Andorra's superior xPoints, Sporting Gijón's practical results — seven points to Andorra's three — hint at a team that capitalizes on opportunities. Their defensive solidity, with an xGA of 0.93, offers a slight edge in resilience compared to Andorra's 0.97. The head-to-head record is too slim to heavily influence predictions, but it's evenly split, suggesting no clear psychological advantage.

    For the savvy punter, there's value in backing Gijón at 3.4 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet, where a 30% probability gives them a slight edge. This EV+ opportunity stands out, especially with the over 2.5 goal probability at 54%, indicating an open game likely to see both teams score. In this tight matchup, it may well be the visitors who snatch a close victory.

    FC AndorraFC Andorra
    Form WLLLL
    League ranking xG #3xGA #10xT #2xP/match #7Points #17
    Key players
    • Efe AkmanCMxG 0.11 · xT 0.18
    • Thomas CarriqueRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.22
    • Marc BombardoCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.14
    Sporting GijónSporting Gijón
    Form WDWWL
    League ranking xG #11xGA #8xT #8xP/match #5Points #9
    Key players
    • Juan OteroFxG 0.28 · xT 0.01
    • Aimar Duñabeitia MadariagaCBxG 0.16 · xT 0.07
    • Guille RosasRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.11

    Match prediction: FC Andorra – Sporting Gijón

    Predicted score matrix

    Sporting Gijón →
    FC Andorra →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.2%
    0–17.1%
    0–24.7%
    0–32.0%
    0–4+0.8%
    1
    1–08.9%
    1–112.0%
    1–27.4%
    1–33.1%
    1–4+1.3%
    2
    2–07.3%
    2–19.2%
    2–25.8%
    2–32.4%
    2–4+1.0%
    3
    3–03.8%
    3–14.8%
    3–23.0%
    3–31.3%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–02.1%
    4+–12.7%
    4+–21.7%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-09%
    4. 4.1-27%
    5. 5.2-07%
    Expected goals
    1,57–1,26
    Both teams to score
    57%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,546%
    @1.86
    Over 2,554%
    @1.96EV+1%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance FC Andorra or draw (1X)70%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    55%

    Fair odds

    1.83

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance FC Andorra or draw (1X)70%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Jordi Cano Jiménez to score23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score57%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Jordi Cano Jiménez to score23%
    • Pablo Vázquez Pérez to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Sporting Gijón30% probability@3.59PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
    • Over 2.554% probability@1.96PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
    • X · Draw30% probability@3.54PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · FC AndorraX2 · Sporting Gijón
    Betsafe2.023.30
    EV+ 2%
    3.40
    Betsson2.023.30
    EV+ 2%
    3.40
    Nordicbet2.023.30
    EV+ 2%
    3.40
    Pinnacle2.02
    EV+ 5%
    3.54
    EV+ 8%
    3.59

    Odds updated 16 Sept, 16:02

    Odds movement

    1+2 %
    50 %45 %

    1.98 → 2.02

    X-2 %
    29 %24 %

    3.63 → 3.54

    2-1 %
    29 %24 %

    3.62 → 3.59

    Over 2,50 %
    51 %46 %

    1.96 → 1.96

    Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 13/09/2026 → 16/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    FC Andorra 1Draw 2Sporting Gijón 1
    Goals: 4–6 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • FC Andorra have lost 4 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    FC Andorra
    Sporting Gijón
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    FC Andorra (8–10)
    Sporting Gijón (2–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    FC Andorra
    Marc Bombardo: 343 passningar, xT 0.67BombardoDiego Alende: 282 passningar, xT 0.27AlendeMarti Vila: 239 passningar, xT 1.11VilaEfe Akman: 236 passningar, xT 0.58AkmanThomas Carrique: 225 passningar, xT 0.99CarriquePau López Sabata: 209 passningar, xT 0.21SabataMarc Domènech Costa: 205 passningar, xT 0.2CostaSergio Molina: 183 passningar, xT 0.61MolinaLautaro Marco Spatz: 130 passningar, xT 0.24SpatzHugo López Cortés: 100 passningar, xT 0.19CortésHugo Solozábal Granados: 94 passningar, xT 0.18Granados
    Sporting Gijón
    Pablo Vazquez: 211 passningar, xT 0.27VazquezAlexandre Corredera Alardi: 197 passningar, xT 0.04AlardiGuille Rosas: 170 passningar, xT 0.38RosasAimar Duñabeitia Madariaga: 130 passningar, xT 0.19MadariagaAndrés Cuenca Cejudo: 109 passningar, xT 0.16CejudoNacho Martin: 103 passningar, xT 0.05MartinRuben Yanez: 87 passningar, xT 0.11YanezCesar Gelabert: 79 passningar, xT -0.02GelabertManuel Rodríguez Paz: 76 passningar, xT -0.04PazNikita Iosifov: 60 passningar, xT 0.48IosifovJuan Otero: 56 passningar, xT 0.03Otero
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    FC Andorra
    Marc Bombardo: 343 passningar, xT 0.67BombardoDiego Alende: 282 passningar, xT 0.27AlendeMarti Vila: 239 passningar, xT 1.11VilaEfe Akman: 236 passningar, xT 0.58AkmanThomas Carrique: 225 passningar, xT 0.99CarriquePau López Sabata: 209 passningar, xT 0.21SabataMarc Domènech Costa: 205 passningar, xT 0.2CostaSergio Molina: 183 passningar, xT 0.61MolinaLautaro Marco Spatz: 130 passningar, xT 0.24SpatzHugo López Cortés: 100 passningar, xT 0.19CortésHugo Solozábal Granados: 94 passningar, xT 0.18Granados
    Sporting Gijón
    Pablo Vazquez: 211 passningar, xT 0.27VazquezAlexandre Corredera Alardi: 197 passningar, xT 0.04AlardiGuille Rosas: 170 passningar, xT 0.38RosasAimar Duñabeitia Madariaga: 130 passningar, xT 0.19MadariagaAndrés Cuenca Cejudo: 109 passningar, xT 0.16CejudoNacho Martin: 103 passningar, xT 0.05MartinRuben Yanez: 87 passningar, xT 0.11YanezCesar Gelabert: 79 passningar, xT -0.02GelabertManuel Rodríguez Paz: 76 passningar, xT -0.04PazNikita Iosifov: 60 passningar, xT 0.48IosifovJuan Otero: 56 passningar, xT 0.03Otero

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceFC AndorraSporting Gijón
    Points37
    xPoints7.15.9
    xG per match1.71
    xGA per match0.970.93
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.360.2
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.350.08
    Playing styleFC AndorraSporting Gijón
    Build-up efficiency0.320.3
    Field tilt0.840.56
    xT per match1.40.8
    xTA per match0.630.65
    Won balls, offensive half3027
    Pressing intensity0.180.23
    Pressing efficiency0.40.35
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.40.29
    Entries into the box per match169
    Entries into the box against79
    Pass completion %0.820.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.780.71
    Passes per match504394
    Passes against per match183352
    Switches of play per match56.523.4
    Long balls per match5027
    Set piecesFC AndorraSporting Gijón
    xG from free kicks0.010.01
    Corners per match4.52.6
    Corners against per match2.44.1
    xG per corner0.020.07
    xGA per corner against0.080.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.520.5
    First touch, defensive corners %0.50.62
    OtherFC AndorraSporting Gijón
    Throw-in control0.760.65
    The goalkeepersPau López Sabata (FC Andorra)Ruben Yanez (Sporting Gijón)
    Saves88
    Save %62%80%
    xG prevented57%71%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    FC Andorra
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Sporting Gijón
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins FC Andorra vs Sporting Gijón according to our model?

    The model gives FC Andorra a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC Andorra 40%, draw 30%, Sporting Gijón 30%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    CórdobaCórdoba
    2–1
    GironaGirona
    1 44%X 24%2 32%
    The model called the outcome
    Real OviedoReal Oviedo
    0–1
    LeganésLeganés
    1 44%X 28%2 29%
    The model missed the outcome
    EldenseEldense
    2–2
    CádizCádiz
    1 47%X 28%2 25%
    The model missed the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.