01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Almería to win67%
- Over 1.5 goals86%
Segunda División27°23 km/h
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AlmeríaBalanced & physicalvs
Celta FortunaCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Almería (67%)Best value by the model: 2 · Celta Fortuna @ 7.34 (+15 %)
Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.
Almería vs Celta Fortuna · Segunda División
1 · Almería 67%X 18%16% Celta Fortuna · 2
67%
18%
16%
Analysis: Almería – Celta Fortuna
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT:
Almería enters this Segunda División clash against Celta Fortuna with a clear edge in both form and expected goals. The model gives the hosts a strong 67% probability of winning, underlining their dominance at home, where they triumph in two out of every three matches played. Such consistency is hard to overlook, especially when coupled with a higher tally in both points and xPoints compared to the visitors.
The most telling numbers project a 2-1 or 2-0 victory for Almería. They are generating 2.39 expected goals per game, which sharply contrasts with Celta Fortuna's 1.04. This suggests a scenario where the hosts not only create more chances but also suppress their opponents effectively. Celta Fortuna, reliant on counterattacks and crosses, may find themselves stifled by Almería's balanced and physical approach.
Despite the solid defensive stance expected from Almería, there's a 59% chance for both teams to score, reflecting the visitors' ability to occasionally break through. Yet, with the most probable scorelines favoring Almería and a strong over 2.5 goals projection at 67%, the match leans towards being slightly more open than a cagey affair.
Current form and the model's expectations provide a clear picture. With Almería's superior xGA numbers and their ability to control the game tempo, they should have enough to secure a win.
For those eyeing value at longer odds, consider the over 4.5 goals market. It's a high-risk play, but with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offering odds at 4.25 and a model-rated probability of 26%, there's an 11% edge according to the calculations. While not a certainty, it's a calculated gamble that could pay off if the match unexpectedly opens up.
AlmeríaForm WLLWW
League ranking xG #8xGA #14xT #19xP/match #19Points #3
Key players
- Stefan DžodićCMxG 0.25 · xT 0.05
- Federico BoniniCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.05
- Leonardo Micali Carrilho BaptistãoRWxG 0.81 · xT 0.15
Celta FortunaForm DWLW
League ranking xG #9xGA #19xT #7xP/match #18Points #13
Key players
- Bernard Somuah SarpongFxG 0.54 · xT 0.07
- Adria Capdevila PuigmalFxG 0.06 · xT 0.01
- Ángel Arcos CadillaLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.01
Match prediction: Almería – Celta Fortuna
Predicted score matrix
Celta Fortuna →
Almería →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.5%
0–13.1%
0–21.8%
0–30.6%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–07.5%
1–18.3%
1–24.2%
1–31.5%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–09.2%
2–19.6%
2–25.0%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–07.4%
3–17.7%
3–24.0%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–07.8%
4+–18.1%
4+–24.2%
4+–31.5%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-110%
- 2.2-09%
- 3.1-18%
- 4.3-18%
- 5.1-07%
Expected goals
2,39–1,04
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,40
111%
219%
322%
419%
5+26%
Under 2,533%
@2.26
Over 2,567%
@1.64EV+7%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Almería to win67%
- Over 2.5 goals67%
- Miguel de la Fuente Escudero to score36%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals67%
- Miguel de la Fuente Escudero to score36%
- Anxo Rodríguez Álvarez to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Celta Fortuna16% probability@7.34PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
- Over 4.526% probability@4.35BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
- Over 4.526% probability@4.35BetssonEV+14%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Almería | X | 2 · Celta Fortuna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.36 | 4.60 | EV+ 10% 7.00 |
| Betsson | 1.36 | 4.60 | EV+ 10% 7.00 |
| Nordicbet | 1.36 | 4.60 | EV+ 10% 7.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.39 | 4.89 | EV+ 15% 7.34 |
Odds updated 17 Sept, 08:37
Odds movement
1+1 %
71 %66 %
1.38 → 1.39
X-2 %
22 %17 %
4.97 → 4.89
20 %
15 %10 %
7.35 → 7.34
Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 15/09/2026 → 17/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- UD Almería win 67% of their home matches all-time (46 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Almería
Celta Fortuna
Almería (8–4)
Celta Fortuna (7–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Almería
Celta Fortuna
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Almería
Celta Fortuna
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Almería | Celta Fortuna |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 7 |
| xPoints | 5.9 | 4.7 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.39 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.17 | 0.45 |
| Playing style | Almería | Celta Fortuna |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.19 |
| Field tilt | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| xT per match | 0.62 | 0.85 |
| xTA per match | 0.97 | 0.88 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 19 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 8 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 409 | 313 |
| Passes against per match | 311 | 409 |
| Switches of play per match | 18.1 | 19.9 |
| Long balls per match | 27 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Almería | Celta Fortuna |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.2 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 3.9 | 3.2 |
| Corners against per match | 5.9 | 5.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.3 | 0.46 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.47 | 0.67 |
| Other | Almería | Celta Fortuna |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| The goalkeepers | Andres Fernandez (Almería) | Jorge Carrillo Balea (Celta Fortuna) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 11 | 16 |
| Save % | 79% | 89% |
| xG prevented | 36% | 76% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Albacete – Córdoba18 September 2026
- Eldense – Eibar20 September 2026
- Leganés – Granada20 September 2026
- FC Andorra – Sporting Gijón20 September 2026
- Castellon – CD Tenerife20 September 2026
- Cádiz – Girona20 September 2026
- Las Palmas – Burgos20 September 2026
- Ceuta – Real Valladolid20 September 2026
- Sabadell – Real Oviedo20 September 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Almería vs Celta Fortuna according to our model?
The model gives Almería a 67% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Almería 67%, draw 18%, Celta Fortuna 16%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.