01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Castellon to win61%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
Segunda División23°21,1 mm10 km/h
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CastellonPossession controlvs
CE Sabadell FCPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Castellon (61%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 4.90 (+24 %)
Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.
Castellon – CE Sabadell FC · Segunda División
1 · Castellon 61%X 18%22% CE Sabadell FC · 2
61%
18%
22%
Analysis: Castellon – CE Sabadell FC
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Castellon have been a model of consistency, scoring in a staggering 22 consecutive league matches. It's a statistic that not only highlights their attacking prowess but also underlines the challenge CE Sabadell FC face as they journey for this Segunda División bout. With Castellon enjoying a hefty 61% win probability, the odds are strongly in their favour, a sentiment mirrored by the expected goals of 2.23 to CE Sabadell FC's 1.15.
Castellon, with their possession-centered style, are no strangers to dictating the rhythm of the game. Although CE Sabadell FC share a similar penchant for controlling the ball, they've managed only a single point in the standings compared to Castellon's three. While CE Sabadell FC slightly edge the xG per match at 1.8, Castellon’s defensive discipline, yielding a mere 0.25 xGA per match, suggests they are more than capable of stifling the visitors’ forays forward.
Given these numbers, a 2-1 victory for Castellon seems a sensible prediction, aligning with the most likely scoreline. The expectation of over 2.5 goals (66%) and both teams to score (61%) supports the notion of a potentially open contest, despite the shared playing styles aiming to control the midfield battleground.
Yet, the real intrigue lies in the betting market. The model suggests a 22% chance for a CE Sabadell FC upset, which might seem slim. However, the odds offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet at 6.1 present a tantalising 31% edge — a value bet for those willing to back the underdog. Though the statistical landscape favours Castellon, the value is undeniably with CE Sabadell FC if you're hunting for a long-shot payoff.
CastellonForm WWDLW
League ranking xG #6xGA #1xT #6xP/match #3Points #6
Key players
- Alex CalatravaRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.21
- Brian CipengaLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.26
- Ousmane CamaraFxG 0.36 · xT 0.07
CE Sabadell FCForm D
League ranking xG #4xGA #10xT #16xP/match #5Points #9
Match prediction: Castellon – CE Sabadell FC
Predicted score matrix
CE Sabadell FC →
Castellon →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.6%
0–13.7%
0–22.3%
0–30.9%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–07.3%
1–19.0%
1–25.0%
1–31.9%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–08.4%
2–19.7%
2–25.6%
2–32.2%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–06.3%
3–17.2%
3–24.2%
3–31.6%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–05.9%
4+–16.8%
4+–23.9%
4+–31.5%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-110%
- 2.1-19%
- 3.2-08%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,23–1,15
Both teams to score
61%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,40
111%
220%
322%
419%
5+25%
Under 2,534%
@2.00
Over 2,566%
@1.72EV+13%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Castellon to win61%
- Over 2.5 goals66%
- Ousmane Camara to score38%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score61%
- Over 2.5 goals66%
- Ousmane Camara to score38%
- Albert Orriols Cerarols to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 4.525% probability@4.90BetsafeEV+24%reference odds
- Over 4.525% probability@4.90BetssonEV+24%reference odds
- Over 4.525% probability@4.90NordicbetEV+24%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Castellon | X | 2 · CE Sabadell FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.50 | 4.05 | EV+ 18% 5.50 |
| Betsson | 1.50 | 4.05 | EV+ 18% 5.50 |
| Nordicbet | 1.50 | 4.05 | EV+ 18% 5.50 |
Odds updated 18 Aug, 16:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an CE Sabadell FC win since 18 August — the odds have shortened from 6.10 to 5.50 (−10%).
1+3 %
64 %59 %
1.46 → 1.50
X0 %
25 %20 %
4.05 → 4.05
2-10 %
18 %13 %
6.10 → 5.50
Over 2,50 %
56 %51 %
1.72 → 1.72
Betsson · 3 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Castellon have scored in 22 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Castellon
CE Sabadell FC
Castellon (1–0)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Castellon
CE Sabadell FC
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Castellon
CE Sabadell FC
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Castellon | CE Sabadell FC |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 1 |
| xPoints | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| xGA per match | 0.25 | 0.57 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| Playing style | Castellon | CE Sabadell FC |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.7 | 0.57 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 0.59 |
| xTA per match | 0.65 | 0.36 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 32 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 5 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.67 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.8 | 0.53 |
| Passes per match | 444 | 272 |
| Passes against per match | 281 | 376 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.2 | 22.8 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Castellon | CE Sabadell FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 8.1 | 8.3 |
| Corners against per match | 5.1 | 1 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0 | 0 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.25 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.8 | 0 |
| Other | Castellon | CE Sabadell FC |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| The goalkeepers | Alberto Jimenez (Castellon) | Diego Licinio Lázaro Fuoli (CE Sabadell FC) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 1 | 5 |
| Save % | 100% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Castellon vs CE Sabadell FC according to our model?
The model gives Castellon a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Castellon 61%, draw 18%, CE Sabadell FC 22%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.