CD Tenerife vs Almería: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Segunda División23 August 202615°10 km/h

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CD TenerifeLow block & direct

AlmeríaBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Almería (41%)

1 · CD Tenerife 31%X 29%41% Almería · 2

31%

29%

41%

Analysis: CD Tenerife – Almería

Anna Karlsson · 18 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Two games into their head-to-head ledger since 2023, UD Almería have taken both encounters, stamping a noticeable edge in the pair's budding rivalry. While the sample size is small and thus somewhat fragile, UD Almería's superiority extends beyond mere results. Consider the expected goals (xG) figures: CD Tenerife have managed a paltry 0.37 xG per match against UD Almería's robust 2.5. This discrepancy underscores a deeper tactical chasm and suggests that UD Almería's balanced and physical approach is a hard nut for Tenerife's low defence and direct style to crack.

31% versus 41%. Those are the model's win probabilities favoring UD Almería in their trip to Tenerife. The odds sharply tilt towards UD Almería, not merely by model prediction but also reinforced by underlying factors. Their xPoints—2.6 compared to Tenerife’s meager 0.8—illustrate a team more adept in translating chances into tangible results. A 1-1 draw might feature as the most likely single scoreline at 13%, but a 0-1 victory for UD Almería is not far behind at 11%, hinting at a narrow win for the visitors.

Weather, a wildcard always, forecasts a damp 3.4 mm of rain, potentially weighing down the pace and scoring, yet already accounted for in the 44% likelihood of over 2.5 goals. The match might lean more towards tactical engagements than goal gluts. A 50% chance for both teams to score further narrows the goalfest window.

CD Tenerife, despite home comforts, face uphill odds. Their xG within 8 seconds of winning possession barely reads 0.14 against Almería’s 0.17, another testament to the visitors' execution even in transition. For those with a betting slant, UD Almería at odds of 2.43 with Bet365 presents an enticing value (EV+) angle. The numbers and narrative align towards a 1-0 victory for UD Almería, with a nod towards under 2.5 goals as the cleaner play.

CD Tenerife

Form DLLLW

League ranking xG #20xGA #15xT #15xP/match #16Points #2

Key players

Jesus Alvarez AguadoCMxG 0.07 · xT -0.01
David RodriguezLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.01
José León BernalCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07

Almería

Form DWDLW

League ranking xG #2xGA #8xT #9xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Miguel De La FuenteFxG 0.40 · xT 0.10
Stefan DžodićCMxG 0.88 · xT 0.04
Alex MunozLBxG 0.07 · xT 0.15

Match prediction: CD Tenerife – Almería

Predicted score matrix

Almería →

CD Tenerife →

0–09.1%

0–111.1%

0–27.5%

0–33.3%

0–4+1.4%

1–09.5%

1–113.3%

1–28.5%

1–33.7%

1–4+1.6%

2–05.5%

2–17.3%

2–24.8%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.9%

3–02.1%

3–12.7%

3–21.8%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.7%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-09%
4.0-09%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,12–1,31

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

@1.72

Over 2,544%

@2.00

Ready-made bet suggestions

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01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Almería or draw (X2)69%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Almería or draw (X2)69%
Under 2.5 goals56%
Miguel de la Fuente Escudero to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Miguel de la Fuente Escudero to score29%
Juan Jose Sanchez Romero to be booked20%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · CD Tenerife	X	2 · Almería
Betsafe	3.00	3.10	2.30
Betsson	3.00	3.10	2.30
Nordicbet	3.00	3.10	2.30

Odds updated 18 Aug, 13:36

Odds movement

1+5 %

34 %29 %

2.85 → 3.00

X0 %

32 %27 %

3.10 → 3.10

2-3 %

42 %37 %

2.38 → 2.30

Over 2,50 %

49 %44 %

2.00 → 2.00

Betsson · 2 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

CD Tenerife 0Draw 0Almería 2

Goals: 0–3 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

CD Tenerife

Almería

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

CD Tenerife (3–1)

Almería (3–0)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

CD Tenerife

Almería

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

CD Tenerife

Almería

The teams in numbers

Performance	CD Tenerife	Almería
Points	3	3
xPoints	0.8	2.6
xG per match	0.37	2.5
xGA per match	1.4	0.54
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.4	0.02

Playing style	CD Tenerife	Almería
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.3
Field tilt	0.42	0.48
xT per match	0.6	0.87
xTA per match	1.4	0.91
Won balls, offensive half	27	17
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.26
Entries into the box per match	8	11
Entries into the box against	15	10
Pass completion %	0.66	0.85
Pass completion % under pressure	0.62	0.77
Passes per match	230	478
Passes against per match	488	338
Switches of play per match	28.5	17.5
Long balls per match	46	22

Set pieces	CD Tenerife	Almería
xG from free kicks	0	0.89
Corners per match	3	6.4
Corners against per match	6.9	7.3
xG per corner	0.01	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.01	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.67	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.43	0.5

Other	CD Tenerife	Almería
Throw-in control	0.48	0.76

The goalkeepers	Daniel Martín Fernández (CD Tenerife)	Andres Fernandez (Almería)
Saves	4	3
Save %	80%	100%
xG prevented	71%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins CD Tenerife vs Almería according to our model?

The model gives Almería a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: CD Tenerife 31%, draw 29%, Almería 41%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.