Sporting Gijón vs Burgos: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Segunda División23 August 202617°5,4 mm13 km/h

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Sporting GijónPossession control

BurgosLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Sporting Gijón (37%)

1 · Sporting Gijón 37%X 32%31% Burgos · 2

37%

32%

31%

Analysis: Sporting Gijón – Burgos

Marcus Johansson · 18 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Four straight wins for Burgos CF set the stage for a tantalizing clash against Real Sporting de Gijón. The model gives Real Sporting a slight edge with a 37% win probability, yet their form suggests otherwise. Burgos CF's recent dominance is not just a hot streak but built on solid xG numbers — 1.6 per match compared to a paltry 0.57 for Gijón. Despite the home side's propensity for controlling possession, they've struggled to convert it into tangible results, as their mere 1.24 expected goals for this match implies.

Real Sporting de Gijón might find solace in their historical deadlock with Burgos CF, splitting the sparse six-game sample with three wins each. However, this balance is deceptive given Gijón's current inefficacy in front of goal. The likes of a 1-1 or 1-0 scoreline loom large in probability, hinting at a tight, low-scoring affair. Factor in the forecasted rain of 9.3 mm, and the likelihood of a goal glut diminishes further.

Burgos CF’s style, based on a low defensive block and direct play, could exploit the gaps that Gijón might leave as they attempt to control possession. While both teams are pegged at 1.8 xGA per match, Burgos CF’s recent form — buoyed by their tactical discipline — tips the scales in their favour. Their higher expected points (1.6) and tangible points (3) also underline their upper hand.

Given the conditions and styles, a 1-0 victory for Burgos CF seems the most plausible outcome. The over 2.5 goals sits at just 41%, aligning with the likelihood of a restrained affair under the wet weather. For those seeking value, William Hill’s odds on a draw offer a potential edge at 32%, though it leans more towards a goalless or low-scoring result. The safest bet, however, leans under 2.5 goals, banking on the rain to wash away any attacking bravado.

Sporting Gijón

Form LWWWD

League ranking xG #13xGA #19xT #20xP/match #18Points #12

Key players

Juan OteroFxG 0.39 · xT 0.09
Jonathan DubasinRWxG 0.37 · xT 0.06
Manuel Rodríguez PazFxG 0.02 · xT 0.04

Burgos

Form DWWWW

League ranking xG #7xGA #18xT #5xP/match #10Points #4

Key players

David GonzalezFxG 0.52 · xT 0.04
Curro SanchezCAMxG 0.02 · xT 0.30
Sergio GonzalezCBxG 0.41 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Sporting Gijón – Burgos

Predicted score matrix

Burgos →

Sporting Gijón →

0–010.3%

0–110.2%

0–25.7%

0–32.1%

0–4+0.7%

1–011.8%

1–113.6%

1–27.1%

1–32.5%

1–4+0.9%

2–07.6%

2–18.2%

2–24.4%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–03.1%

3–13.4%

3–21.8%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.4%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-012%
3.0-010%
4.0-110%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,24–1,08

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

010%

122%

227%

320%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,559%

@1.52

Over 2,541%

@2.35

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Sporting Gijón or draw (1X)68%
Under 3.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Sporting Gijón or draw (1X)68%
Under 2.5 goals59%
Juan Ferney Otero Tovar to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals41%
Juan Ferney Otero Tovar to score22%
Alexandre Corredera Alardi to be booked24%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Sporting Gijón	X	2 · Burgos
Betsafe	2.32	2.95	3.05
Betsson	2.32	2.95	3.05
Nordicbet	2.32	2.95	3.05

Odds updated 18 Aug, 08:36

Odds movement

10 %

42 %37 %

2.32 → 2.32

X0 %

33 %28 %

2.95 → 2.95

20 %

32 %27 %

3.05 → 3.05

Over 2,5+1 %

42 %37 %

2.32 → 2.35

Betsson · 2 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Sporting Gijón 3Draw 0Burgos 3

Goals: 8–6 (⌀ 2,3)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

Key facts

Burgos CF come into this round on 4 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sporting Gijón

Burgos

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Burgos (3–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sporting Gijón

Burgos

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sporting Gijón

Burgos

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sporting Gijón	Burgos
Points	1	3
xPoints	0.7	1.6
xG per match	0.57	1.6
xGA per match	1.8	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.06	0.35
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.13

Playing style	Sporting Gijón	Burgos
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.3
Field tilt	0.43	0.39
xT per match	0.36	1.2
xTA per match	0.59	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	24	21
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.47	0.39
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.39	0.31
Entries into the box per match	5	10
Entries into the box against	10	15
Pass completion %	0.74	0.67
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.65
Passes per match	376	221
Passes against per match	272	331
Switches of play per match	28	12.4
Long balls per match	31	29

Set pieces	Sporting Gijón	Burgos
xG from free kicks	0	0.33
Corners per match	1	0.95
Corners against per match	8.3	6.7
xG per corner	0	0
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	1	1
First touch, defensive corners %	0.75	0.86

Other	Sporting Gijón	Burgos
Throw-in control	0.73	0.65

The goalkeepers	Ruben Yanez (Sporting Gijón)	Ander Cantero (Burgos)
Saves	2	6
Save %	100%	75%
xG prevented	100%	80%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sporting Gijón vs Burgos according to our model?

The model gives Sporting Gijón a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sporting Gijón 37%, draw 32%, Burgos 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.