Eibar vs Real Valladolid: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Segunda División23 August 202617°6,0 mm11 km/h

EibarPossession control

Real ValladolidBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Eibar (50%)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Eibar 50%X 27%23% Real Valladolid · 2

50%

27%

23%

Analysis: Eibar – Real Valladolid

Erik Lindberg · 18 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

SD Eibar's 50% probability of winning this clash against Real Valladolid CF suggests a clear home advantage, further underscored by their impressive record of scoring in eight consecutive league games. With an expected goals (xG) figure of 1.47 for SD Eibar compared to Real Valladolid CF's 0.90, the numbers tip the scales significantly in favour of the hosts. While SD Eibar's playing style focuses on possession control, Real Valladolid CF brings a balanced yet physical approach, which could find itself dampened by the wet conditions forecasted with 17.7 mm of rain. Wet surfaces often suppress goal-scoring opportunities, something that is already factored into the 42% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Real Valladolid CF's form is troubling, having lost four consecutive matches. Pair this with SD Eibar's 60% home win rate from 65 matches, and it's hard to look past a home victory in this fixture. Although the head-to-head sample size since 2023 is small, with just two matches, SD Eibar remain unbeaten in this timeframe, further reinforcing their dominance in this matchup. The most likely scorelines, 1-0 and 1-1, each at 13%, reflect a cautious narrative, but the expectation leans toward a tighter contest.

SD Eibar's edge in xG when winning the ball quickly (0.4 to Valladolid's 0.2) suggests they are capable of capitalizing on quick transitions, which might be enough to break down Valladolid's defenses. While Valladolid has a slight defensive edge in preventing quick goals post-possession loss, their current form makes this advantage seem less impactful.

The sharpest angle here is the evident value in betting on SD Eibar at odds of 2.22 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, offering an 11% edge according to the model's 50% rating for a home win. A 1-0 victory for SD Eibar aligns with both statistical projections and the weather conditions, suggesting a low-scoring affair under the rain-soaked skies.

Eibar

Form WLWLL

League ranking xG #8xGA #3xT #4xP/match #7Points #20

Key players

Jon BautistaFxG 0.94 · xT -0.03
Markel Arana MateoCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
Anaitz ArbillaCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.20

Real Valladolid

Form WLLLL

League ranking xG #10xGA #6xT #13xP/match #6Points #21

Key players

Ivan GarrielLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.01
Ramón MartínezCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
David TorresCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: Eibar – Real Valladolid

Predicted score matrix

Real Valladolid →

Eibar →

0–09.7%

0–18.0%

0–23.8%

0–31.1%

0–4+0.3%

1–013.4%

1–112.7%

1–25.5%

1–31.6%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.2%

2–19.1%

2–24.1%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.3%

3–05.0%

3–14.5%

3–22.0%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–02.5%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-013%
2.1-113%
3.2-010%
4.0-010%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,47–0,90

Both teams to score

46%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.58

Over 2,542%

@2.22

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Eibar to win50%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Eibar to win50%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Jon Bautista Orgilles to score34%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score46%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Jon Bautista Orgilles to score34%
Ramón Martínez Gil to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Eibar50% probability@2.18BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
1 · Eibar50% probability@2.18BetssonEV+9%reference odds
1 · Eibar50% probability@2.18NordicbetEV+9%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Eibar	X	2 · Real Valladolid
Betsafe	EV+ 9% 2.18	2.92	3.45
Betsson	EV+ 9% 2.18	2.92	3.45
Nordicbet	EV+ 9% 2.18	2.92	3.45

Odds updated 18 Aug, 14:36

Odds movement

1-2 %

44 %39 %

2.22 → 2.18

X+4 %

34 %29 %

2.82 → 2.92

2+1 %

29 %24 %

3.40 → 3.45

Over 2,50 %

44 %39 %

2.22 → 2.22

Betsson · 2 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Eibar 1Draw 1Real Valladolid 0

Goals: 3–0 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

Key facts

SD Eibar have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Real Valladolid CF have lost 4 in a row.
SD Eibar win 60% of their home matches all-time (65 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Eibar

Real Valladolid

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Eibar (1–3)

Real Valladolid (0–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Eibar

Real Valladolid

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Eibar

Real Valladolid

The teams in numbers

Performance	Eibar	Real Valladolid
Points	0	0
xPoints	1.9	1.9
xG per match	1.4	1
xGA per match	0.37	0.51
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.4	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.14	0.04

Playing style	Eibar	Real Valladolid
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.29
Field tilt	0.58	0.44
xT per match	1.4	0.69
xTA per match	0.6	0.39
Won balls, offensive half	24	26
Pressing intensity	0.27	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.38	0.19
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.47	0.15
Entries into the box per match	15	5
Entries into the box against	8	9
Pass completion %	0.79	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.78
Passes per match	488	444
Passes against per match	230	407
Switches of play per match	43.3	41.7
Long balls per match	40	42

Set pieces	Eibar	Real Valladolid
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	6.9	2
Corners against per match	3	3
xG per corner	0.01	0
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.57	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.33	0.67

Other	Eibar	Real Valladolid
Throw-in control	0.7	0.7

The goalkeepers	Jonmi Magunagoitia (Eibar)	Álvaro Aceves Catalina (Real Valladolid)
Saves	1	1
Save %	25%	33%
xG prevented	9%	39%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Eibar vs Real Valladolid according to our model?

The model gives Eibar a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Eibar 50%, draw 27%, Real Valladolid 23%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.