Assyriska FF vs Gefle: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Swedish Ettan23 August 2026 18:00 CEST14°3,3 mm10 km/h

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Assyriska FFCounter-attacks & crosses

GeflePossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Assyriska FF (46%)

1 · Assyriska FF 46%X 25%29% Gefle · 2

46%

25%

29%

Analysis: Assyriska FF – Gefle

Marcus Johansson · 19 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Assyriska FF's current form suggests a strong clash ahead against Gefle. Riding high on a four-match winning streak, the hosts have momentum on their side, a crucial factor when facing a team like Gefle who prefer to dominate possession. Assyriska's strength lies in their ability to exploit counter-attacks and deliver effective crosses, perfectly suited to disrupt Gefle’s control-based approach. The model gives Assyriska a 46% likelihood of victory, reflecting both recent form and a tactical edge.

Despite this, the head-to-head record since 2023 is tight, with Assyriska failing to secure a win across three encounters, drawing twice and losing once. However, this is a small sample size and less significant compared to the current dynamics and expected goals. The expected goals (xG) model shows Assyriska with an advantage, projecting 1.71 xG to Gefle’s 1.28. This suggests that while both teams are likely to score, Assyriska has a sharper attack ready to convert chances, especially on the break.

The most likely scorelines hint at a close contest: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), and 1-0 (8%). With a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% probability for both teams to score, goals are anticipated despite the predicted rain, which is accounted for in these numbers. The weather might dampen an otherwise more open game but won't quell the attacking potential on display.

The betting value appears in Assyriska FF’s win at odds of 2.20 with Bet365. Given their current form and strategic edge, these odds present an attractive opportunity for punters. The match leans towards a 2-1 victory for the home side, aligning with the model’s inclination and Assyriska's momentum.

Assyriska FF

Form DWWWW

League ranking xG #21xGA #20xT #26xP/match #15Points #18

Key players

Elias Ländin SjöblomLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.43
Felix Felder AaltonenRWxG 0.31 · xT 0.25
Viktor WiderbergFxG 0.20 · xT 0.10

Gefle

Form LWWLW

League ranking xG #25xGA #19xT #20xP/match #17Points #21

Key players

Lukas VikgrenLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.34
Mirza HasanbegovicFxG 0.30 · xT -0.02
Deniz YaldirLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.30

Match prediction: Assyriska FF – Gefle

Predicted score matrix

Gefle →

Assyriska FF →

0–05.4%

0–16.1%

0–24.1%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.7%

1–08.3%

1–111.3%

1–27.0%

1–33.0%

1–4+1.3%

2–07.4%

2–19.4%

2–26.0%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.1%

3–04.2%

3–15.4%

3–23.4%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.6%

4+–02.7%

4+–13.4%

4+–22.2%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-08%
4.2-07%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,71–1,28

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.15

Over 2,557%

@1.62

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Assyriska FF to win46%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Assyriska FF to win46%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Samuel Nnamani to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Samuel Nnamani to score30%
Theodor Hansemon to be booked19%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Assyriska FF	X	2 · Gefle
Betsafe	1.92	3.60	3.30
Betsson	1.92	3.60	3.30
Nordicbet	1.92	3.60	3.30

Odds updated 18 Aug, 21:36

Odds movement

1-28 %

51 %31 %

2.65 → 1.92

X+1 %

35 %15 %

3.55 → 3.60

2+47 %

44 %24 %

2.25 → 3.30

Betsson · 2 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Assyriska FF 0Draw 2Gefle 1

Goals: 2–3 (⌀ 1,7)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

Key facts

Assyriska FF come into this round on 4 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Assyriska FF

Gefle

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Assyriska FF (29–29)

Gefle (21–34)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Assyriska FF

Gefle

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Assyriska FF

Gefle

The teams in numbers

Performance	Assyriska FF	Gefle
Points	23	20
xPoints	23.9	23.5
xG per match	1.3	1.2
xGA per match	1.5	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.31	0.22
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.25

Playing style	Assyriska FF	Gefle
Build-up efficiency	0.38	0.35
Field tilt	0.38	0.4
xT per match	1.3	1.3
xTA per match	1.7	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	23	29
Pressing intensity	0.43	0.49
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.24
Entries into the box per match	12	10
Entries into the box against	14	14
Pass completion %	0.77	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.74
Passes per match	279	325
Passes against per match	395	444
Switches of play per match	17.3	16.2
Long balls per match	33	28

Set pieces	Assyriska FF	Gefle
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.14
Corners per match	4.4	3.9
Corners against per match	5.5	5.3
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.48
First touch, defensive corners %	0.71	0.58

Other	Assyriska FF	Gefle
Throw-in control	0.51	0.57

The goalkeepers	Kingdom Osayi (Assyriska FF)	Max Croon (Gefle)
Saves	47	55
Save %	68%	62%
xG prevented	41%	37%
Claims	85 (90%)	66 (97%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Assyriska FF vs Gefle according to our model?

The model gives Assyriska FF a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Assyriska FF 46%, draw 25%, Gefle 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.