Swedish Ettan13°8,6 mm12 km/h

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    Assyriska FFAssyriska FFCounter-attacks & crosses
    2–1
    IFK StocksundIFK StocksundBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 1 · Assyriska FF (52%)

    Assyriska FF – IFK Stocksund · Swedish Ettan

    1 · Assyriska FF 52%X 23%25% IFK Stocksund · 2

    Analysis: Assyriska FF – IFK Stocksund

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    The text contains an unsupported claim not found in the FACTS: the specific Bet365 odds of 2.00. This detail is fabricated and should be removed.

    CORRECTED TEXT:

    In the past five meetings between Assyriska FF and IFK Stocksund, the visitors have had the upper hand, claiming two victories to the hosts' single win. Despite this slight historical edge, the match leans towards Assyriska, particularly given Stocksund's recent form, which has seen them lose three consecutive games. This faltering streak could be pivotal as Assyriska looks to capitalize at home.

    Beyond the historical data, the current season's figures tilt in favor of the hosts. Assyriska has amassed 26 points compared to Stocksund's 11, demonstrating a more consistent performance throughout the campaign. Moreover, when examining expected points, Assyriska's 27.6 further cements their superiority, overshadowing Stocksund's 20.0. Even though Stocksund has a slight edge in xG per match with 1.6 compared to Assyriska's 1.3, the host's defensive solidity (xGA of 1.4 versus Stocksund's 2.0) could prove decisive in neutralizing Stocksund's attacking threats.

    The match is expected to see goals, with a high 67% chance for over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring at 66%. Assyriska's counter-attacking style, coupled with Stocksund's physical approach, sets the stage for an engaging duel, though the forecasted rain might dampen goal-scoring opportunities slightly. However, with an expected goals model of 2.05 for Assyriska against 1.43 for Stocksund, the home side appears poised to edge out a narrow victory.

    The model gives Assyriska FF a 52% win probability, with the most likely outcome being a 2-1 win for the hosts, supporting a lean towards over 2.5 goals, despite the weather's potential impact.

    Assyriska FFAssyriska FF
    Form WWWLW
    League ranking xG #21xGA #18xT #21xP/match #14Points #16
    Key players
    • Sebastian WändinRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.19
    • Viktor WiderbergFxG 0.22 · xT 0.10
    • Elias Ländin SjöblomLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.40
    IFK StocksundIFK Stocksund
    Form LWLLL
    League ranking xG #6xGA #31xT #2xP/match #30Points #31
    Key players
    • Yosef RaufFxG 0.46 · xT 0.07
    • Alexander JohanssonCMxG 0.16 · xT 0.57
    • Langston Jasper WennerlindLWxG 0.34 · xT 0.35
    Final score
    2 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Assyriska FF 52% · Draw 23% · IFK Stocksund 25%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Assyriska FFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 3,63fair 4,65-22 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - IFK StocksundBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,52fair 9,73-23 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Assyriska FF – IFK Stocksund

    Predicted score matrix

    IFK Stocksund →
    Assyriska FF →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.4%
    0–14.2%
    0–23.2%
    0–31.5%
    0–4+0.7%
    1
    1–06.1%
    1–19.3%
    1–26.5%
    1–33.1%
    1–4+1.5%
    2
    2–06.5%
    2–19.3%
    2–26.6%
    2–33.1%
    2–4+1.5%
    3
    3–04.4%
    3–16.3%
    3–24.5%
    3–32.1%
    3–4+1.0%
    4+
    4+–03.6%
    4+–15.2%
    4+–23.7%
    4+–31.8%
    4+–4+0.9%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-19%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.2-27%
    4. 4.2-07%
    5. 5.1-26%
    Expected goals
    2,05–1,43
    Both teams to score
    66%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,5
    Under 2,533%
    @2.92
    Over 2,567%
    @1.36

    Ready-made bet suggestions

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Assyriska FF to win52%
    • Over 1.5 goals86%

    Combined probability

    45%

    Fair odds

    2.21

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Assyriska FF to win52%
    • Over 2.5 goals67%
    • Kevin Jarrett to score29%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score66%
    • Over 2.5 goals67%
    • Yosef Rauf to score37%
    • Victor Åsberg to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    Bookmaker1 · Assyriska FFX2 · IFK Stocksund
    Betsafe1.724.053.65
    Betsson1.724.053.65
    Nordicbet1.724.053.65

    Odds updated 4 Sept, 04:36

    Odds movement

    1-2 %
    56 %51 %

    1.75 → 1.72

    X0 %
    24 %19 %

    4.05 → 4.05

    2+4 %
    27 %22 %

    3.50 → 3.65

    Betsson · 6 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    5 matches
    Assyriska FF 1Draw 2IFK Stocksund 2
    Goals: 11–14 (⌀ 5)

    Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • IFK Stocksund dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
    • A high-scoring fixture: 5.0 goals per meeting on average.
    • IFK Stocksund have lost 3 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Assyriska FF
    IFK Stocksund
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Assyriska FF (32–31)
    IFK Stocksund (38–47)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Assyriska FF
    Elias Ländin Sjöblom: 232 passningar, xT 0.78SjöblomVictor Åsberg: 218 passningar, xT 0.54ÅsbergSebastian Wändin: 173 passningar, xT 0.84WändinLiam Tahwildaran: 163 passningar, xT 0.84TahwildaranAmadou Kalabane: 143 passningar, xT 0.17KalabaneSamuel Uddenberg Edgren: 138 passningar, xT 0.3EdgrenFelix Felder Aaltonen: 117 passningar, xT 0.38AaltonenMartín Ignacio Larraín Guzmán: 116 passningar, xT 0.66GuzmánKevin Jarrett: 101 passningar, xT 0.39JarrettMartin Haddad: 87 passningar, xT 0.22HaddadViktor Widerberg: 54 passningar, xT 0.16Widerberg
    IFK Stocksund
    Sebastian Lager: 285 passningar, xT 1.35LagerDary Izia Boto: 167 passningar, xT -0.13BotoMax Vogele: 162 passningar, xT 0.62VogeleLuka Daniel Mihajlovic: 147 passningar, xT 0.18MihajlovicBen Magnusson: 145 passningar, xT 0.19MagnussonAxel Floric: 136 passningar, xT 0.45FloricKasper Engström: 118 passningar, xT 0.51EngströmJames Nene Sibeene: 113 passningar, xT 0.17SibeeneLangston Jasper Wennerlind: 105 passningar, xT 1.49WennerlindJakob Rhawi: 83 passningar, xT 0.08RhawiYosef Rauf: 77 passningar, xT 0.38Rauf
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Assyriska FF
    Elias Ländin Sjöblom: 232 passningar, xT 0.78SjöblomVictor Åsberg: 218 passningar, xT 0.54ÅsbergSebastian Wändin: 173 passningar, xT 0.84WändinLiam Tahwildaran: 163 passningar, xT 0.84TahwildaranAmadou Kalabane: 143 passningar, xT 0.17KalabaneSamuel Uddenberg Edgren: 138 passningar, xT 0.3EdgrenFelix Felder Aaltonen: 117 passningar, xT 0.38AaltonenMartín Ignacio Larraín Guzmán: 116 passningar, xT 0.66GuzmánKevin Jarrett: 101 passningar, xT 0.39JarrettMartin Haddad: 87 passningar, xT 0.22HaddadViktor Widerberg: 54 passningar, xT 0.16Widerberg
    IFK Stocksund
    Sebastian Lager: 285 passningar, xT 1.35LagerDary Izia Boto: 167 passningar, xT -0.13BotoMax Vogele: 162 passningar, xT 0.62VogeleLuka Daniel Mihajlovic: 147 passningar, xT 0.18MihajlovicBen Magnusson: 145 passningar, xT 0.19MagnussonAxel Floric: 136 passningar, xT 0.45FloricKasper Engström: 118 passningar, xT 0.51EngströmJames Nene Sibeene: 113 passningar, xT 0.17SibeeneLangston Jasper Wennerlind: 105 passningar, xT 1.49WennerlindJakob Rhawi: 83 passningar, xT 0.08RhawiYosef Rauf: 77 passningar, xT 0.38Rauf

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceAssyriska FFIFK Stocksund
    Points2611
    xPoints27.620
    xG per match1.31.6
    xGA per match1.42
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.30.36
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.210.33
    Playing styleAssyriska FFIFK Stocksund
    Build-up efficiency0.370.35
    Field tilt0.380.52
    xT per match1.31.7
    xTA per match1.61.4
    Won balls, offensive half2426
    Pressing intensity0.450.53
    Pressing efficiency0.240.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.250.26
    Entries into the box per match1314
    Entries into the box against1415
    Pass completion %0.780.81
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.77
    Passes per match287376
    Passes against per match403335
    Switches of play per match1712.8
    Long balls per match3227
    Set piecesAssyriska FFIFK Stocksund
    xG from free kicks0.110.24
    Corners per match4.34
    Corners against per match5.24.2
    xG per corner0.030.01
    xGA per corner against0.020.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.450.49
    First touch, defensive corners %0.710.48
    OtherAssyriska FFIFK Stocksund
    Throw-in control0.530.56
    The goalkeepersKingdom Osayi (Assyriska FF)Jakob Rhawi (IFK Stocksund)
    Saves5269
    Save %68%61%
    xG prevented42%36%
    Claims95 (91%)98 (87%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Assyriska FF vs IFK Stocksund according to our model?

    The model gives Assyriska FF a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Assyriska FF 52%, draw 23%, IFK Stocksund 25%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 9% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 66% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    TvååkerTvååker
    2–2
    UtsiktenUtsikten
    1 52%X 23%2 25%
    The model missed the outcome
    PiteåPiteå
    0–2
    GefleGefle
    1 28%X 21%2 51%
    The model called the outcome
    IFK StocksundIFK Stocksund
    0–2
    KarlbergKarlberg
    1 40%X 20%2 40%
    The model called the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.