Hammarby vs Piteå: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Swedish Ettan23 August 2026 16:00 CEST14°2,4 mm9 km/h

HammarbyPossession & high press

PiteåPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Hammarby (84%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 2.75 (+6 %)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Hammarby 84%X 11%5% Piteå · 2

84%

Analysis: Hammarby – Piteå

Oscar Nilsson · 18 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Hammarby TFF are riding a formidable wave of form with three straight wins. Their ability to find the back of the net in 16 consecutive league clashes sets them up as the clear favorites against Piteå IF FF. The model paints a stark picture with an 84% win probability for Hammarby TFF, suggesting that anything but a win for the home side would be a shocking deviation.

Piteå IF FF, on the other hand, face an uphill battle, reflected in their meager 5% chance of winning. They've managed only 10 points compared to Hammarby's 36, and their expected goals and goals against metrics show them as vulnerable. The numbers spell out a story of dominance: Hammarby's xG of 1.8 towers over Piteå's 0.84, while defensively, Hammarby concedes around 0.85 xGA per match compared to Piteå's porous 2.1.

Hammarby TFF's pattern of success against Piteå since 2023 is a clean sweep in their four encounters. While this head-to-head sample is small, it still contributes to the overwhelming narrative of Hammarby's superiority. The expected scorelines of 3-0, 2-0, and 4-0 further underline the home side's attacking prowess and a defense likely to keep Piteå at bay. With a 77% likelihood of the game going over 2.5 goals, the stage seems set for a high-scoring affair, despite the light rain potentially acting as a minor dampener.

For the punter with an eye for value, bet365 offers odds of 2.05 for Hammarby TFF to cover a -2.5 handicap. Considering Hammarby’s goal-scoring form and Piteå's defensive frailties, this bet appears to hold promise. While football can be unpredictable, the scales are heavily tipped in favor of a comprehensive Hammarby victory.

Hammarby

Form DWWDL

League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #1xP/match #8Points #1

Key players

Oskar MoczarnyLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.26
Adam JohanssonFxG 0.25 · xT 0.25
Noah EkLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.38

Piteå

Form DLLDD

League ranking xG #32xGA #31xT #30xP/match #32Points #31

Key players

José Segura BonillaFxG 0.33 · xT 0.00
Fredrik JohanssonCMxG 0.13 · xT 0.25
Bekir KavurLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.25

Match prediction: Hammarby – Piteå

Predicted score matrix

Piteå →

Hammarby →

0–01.8%

0–11.1%

0–20.4%

0–30.1%

0–4+0.0%

1–05.6%

1–14.1%

1–21.4%

1–30.3%

1–4+0.1%

2–09.7%

2–16.7%

2–22.3%

2–30.5%

2–4+0.1%

3–011.0%

3–17.6%

3–22.6%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.1%

4+–022.0%

4+–115.2%

4+–25.2%

4+–31.2%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.3-011%
2.2-010%
3.4-09%
4.3-18%
5.2-17%

Expected goals

3,39–0,69

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 4,1

214%

319%

420%

5+39%

Under 2,523%

@3.15

Over 2,577%

@1.31EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Hammarby to win84%
Over 1.5 goals91%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Hammarby to win84%
Over 2.5 goals77%
William Gibson to score42%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals77%
William Gibson to score42%
Fredrik Johansson to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.539% probability@2.75BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
Over 4.539% probability@2.75BetssonEV+6%reference odds
Over 4.539% probability@2.75NordicbetEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Hammarby	X	2 · Piteå
Betsafe	1.07	8.90	19.00
Betsson	1.07	8.90	19.00
Nordicbet	1.07	8.90	19.00

Odds updated 19 Aug, 04:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Hammarby win since 18 August — the odds have shortened from 1.17 to 1.07 (−9%).

1-9 %

86 %76 %

1.17 → 1.07

X+44 %

17 %7 %

6.20 → 8.90

2+65 %

11 %1 %

11.50 → 19.00

Betsson · 7 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 19/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Hammarby 1Draw 0Piteå 0

Goals: 4–1 (⌀ 5)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Hammarby

Piteå

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Hammarby (44–14)

Piteå (17–35)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Hammarby

Piteå

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Hammarby

Piteå

The teams in numbers

Performance	Hammarby	Piteå
Points	36	11
xPoints	27	13.2
xG per match	1.7	0.85
xGA per match	0.83	2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.31	0.22
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.44

Playing style	Hammarby	Piteå
Build-up efficiency	0.39	0.33
Field tilt	0.77	0.38
xT per match	1.7	1.1
xTA per match	0.76	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	33	23
Pressing intensity	0.55	0.47
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.25
Entries into the box per match	22	10
Entries into the box against	8	17
Pass completion %	0.85	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.81	0.74
Passes per match	474	354
Passes against per match	276	400
Switches of play per match	12.6	16.4
Long balls per match	24	28

Set pieces	Hammarby	Piteå
xG from free kicks	0.23	0.12
Corners per match	5.6	3.4
Corners against per match	3.8	5.8
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.41	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.65	0.58

Other	Hammarby	Piteå
Throw-in control	0.67	0.62

The goalkeepers	Elton Fischerström Opancar (Hammarby)	Filip Eriksson (Piteå)
Saves	36	79
Save %	75%	69%
xG prevented	55%	49%
Claims	72 (96%)	93 (92%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Hammarby vs Piteå according to our model?

The model gives Hammarby a 84% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hammarby 84%, draw 11%, Piteå 5%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 3-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 77% and under at 23%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.