Swedish Ettan

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    RosengårdRosengårdPossession & high press
    vs
    FC TrollhättanFC TrollhättanPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Rosengård (51%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 2.52 (+4 %)

    Rosengård – FC Trollhättan · Swedish Ettan

    1 · Rosengård 51%X 23%25% FC Trollhättan · 2

    Analysis: Rosengård – FC Trollhättan

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Rosengård's current run of form places them in an enviable position, unbeaten in their last five league matches. They hold a statistical edge over their opponents FC Trollhättan, with a more robust points tally and superior expected metrics. The hosts have collected 28 points compared to Trollhättan's 22 and boast better figures in both xPoints and xG per match. This positions Rosengård as the favorite in this encounter, with the model giving them a 51% chance of victory.

    The expected goals data further underlines Rosengård's potential dominance, with an xG of 1.88 against Trollhättan's 1.39. Despite a small sample size in head-to-head meetings (just one match since 2023, which Rosengård won), the host's possession and high press style is expected to cause problems for Trollhättan's possession control approach.

    In terms of scoring potential, the game leans towards a lively contest, with a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and 64% likelihood of both teams finding the net. The most likely scorelines are tightly contested: 1-1 at 10% and 2-1 at 9%, suggesting a narrow margin could decide the fixture.

    For the shrewd bettor, the odds favoring an FC Trollhättan victory offer intriguing value. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all listing Trollhättan at 4.8, the 25% model probability presents a juicy 21% edge. This represents a calculated risk, given Trollhättan's underdog status against a team in solid form.

    While Rosengård is the stronger side on paper and form, the betting value on the visitors cannot be ignored. However, expect a close contest, possibly ending in a 2-1 win for Rosengård, but with the potential for Trollhättan to spring a surprise.

    RosengårdRosengård
    Form DWDDD
    League ranking xG #8xGA #4xT #9xP/match #3Points #12
    Key players
    • Emmanuel OnotuLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.17
    • Joel Voelkerling PerssonFxG 0.48 · xT 0.05
    • Ludvig CarliusFxG 0.39 · xT 0.38
    FC TrollhättanFC Trollhättan
    Form DWLWW
    League ranking xG #22xGA #16xT #7xP/match #28Points #22
    Key players
    • Melwin BergRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.25
    • Hugo TillyFxG 0.47 · xT 0.02
    • Filip SternerLBxG 0.04 · xT 0.16

    Match prediction: Rosengård – FC Trollhättan

    Predicted score matrix

    FC Trollhättan →
    Rosengård →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.1%
    0–15.0%
    0–23.7%
    0–31.7%
    0–4+0.8%
    1
    1–06.9%
    1–110.2%
    1–26.9%
    1–33.2%
    1–4+1.5%
    2
    2–06.7%
    2–19.3%
    2–26.5%
    2–33.0%
    2–4+1.4%
    3
    3–04.2%
    3–15.8%
    3–24.1%
    3–31.9%
    3–4+0.9%
    4+
    4+–03.0%
    4+–14.2%
    4+–22.9%
    4+–31.3%
    4+–4+0.6%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-27%
    4. 4.1-07%
    5. 5.2-07%
    Expected goals
    1,88–1,39
    Both teams to score
    64%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,3
    Under 2,537%
    @2.15
    Over 2,563%
    @1.62EV+3%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Rosengård to win51%
    • Over 1.5 goals84%

    Combined probability

    42%

    Fair odds

    2.40

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Rosengård to win51%
    • Over 2.5 goals63%
    • Humphrey Omondi Aroko to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score64%
    • Over 2.5 goals63%
    • Hugo Tilly to score28%
    • Oliver Ocampo Hägglund to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Over 3.541% probability@2.52BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
    • Over 3.541% probability@2.52BetssonEV+4%reference odds
    • Over 3.541% probability@2.52NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · RosengårdX2 · FC Trollhättan
    Betsafe1.803.603.75
    Betsson1.803.603.75
    Nordicbet1.803.603.75

    Odds updated 27 Aug, 14:38

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an FC Trollhättan win since 24 August — the odds have shortened from 4.80 to 3.75 (−22%).

    1+18 %
    60 %50 %

    1.52 → 1.80

    X-11 %
    29 %19 %

    4.05 → 3.60

    2-22 %
    26 %16 %

    4.80 → 3.75

    Nordicbet · 5 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 27/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    1 matches
    Rosengård 1Draw 0FC Trollhättan 0
    Goals: 2–0 (⌀ 2)

    Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Rosengård 1917 are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Rosengård
    FC Trollhättan
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Rosengård (28–22)
    FC Trollhättan (22–28)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Rosengård
    Kalle Larsson: 242 passningar, xT 0.34LarssonGraham Nii Ankamah Ankamafio: 228 passningar, xT 0.28AnkamafioJens Lynard: 204 passningar, xT 0.75LynardFrederik Lesley Schmidt Petersen: 140 passningar, xT 0.33PetersenRasmus Bonde: 130 passningar, xT 0.79BondeMattias Andersson: 118 passningar, xT 0.87AnderssonWilliam Lindberg: 116 passningar, xT 0.2LindbergMatias Ritari: 115 passningar, xT 0.34RitariOtto Håkansson: 85 passningar, xT 0.04HåkanssonArgjend Malaj: 80 passningar, xT 0.17MalajHumphrey Omondi Aroko: 69 passningar, xT 0.64Aroko
    FC Trollhättan
    Nils Svensson: 433 passningar, xT 0.49SvenssonFilip Sterner: 390 passningar, xT 0.93SternerEmil Fasth: 330 passningar, xT 0.4FasthOliver Ocampo Hägglund: 246 passningar, xT 0.36HägglundVilmer Johansson: 198 passningar, xT 1.35JohanssonWilliam Jensen: 192 passningar, xT 0.99JensenMelwin Berg: 163 passningar, xT 0.79BergJimmy Henriksson: 123 passningar, xT 0.17HenrikssonAlbin Gashi: 90 passningar, xT 0.15GashiNatanael Lundén: 89 passningar, xT 0.15LundénDaniel Burubwa: 72 passningar, xT 0.29Burubwa
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Rosengård
    Kalle Larsson: 242 passningar, xT 0.34LarssonGraham Nii Ankamah Ankamafio: 228 passningar, xT 0.28AnkamafioJens Lynard: 204 passningar, xT 0.75LynardFrederik Lesley Schmidt Petersen: 140 passningar, xT 0.33PetersenRasmus Bonde: 130 passningar, xT 0.79BondeMattias Andersson: 118 passningar, xT 0.87AnderssonWilliam Lindberg: 116 passningar, xT 0.2LindbergMatias Ritari: 115 passningar, xT 0.34RitariOtto Håkansson: 85 passningar, xT 0.04HåkanssonArgjend Malaj: 80 passningar, xT 0.17MalajHumphrey Omondi Aroko: 69 passningar, xT 0.64Aroko
    FC Trollhättan
    Nils Svensson: 433 passningar, xT 0.49SvenssonFilip Sterner: 390 passningar, xT 0.93SternerEmil Fasth: 330 passningar, xT 0.4FasthOliver Ocampo Hägglund: 246 passningar, xT 0.36HägglundVilmer Johansson: 198 passningar, xT 1.35JohanssonWilliam Jensen: 192 passningar, xT 0.99JensenMelwin Berg: 163 passningar, xT 0.79BergJimmy Henriksson: 123 passningar, xT 0.17HenrikssonAlbin Gashi: 90 passningar, xT 0.15GashiNatanael Lundén: 89 passningar, xT 0.15LundénDaniel Burubwa: 72 passningar, xT 0.29Burubwa

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceRosengårdFC Trollhättan
    Points2822
    xPoints29.721.5
    xG per match1.61.2
    xGA per match0.961.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.380.23
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.160.22
    Playing styleRosengårdFC Trollhättan
    Build-up efficiency0.40.36
    Field tilt0.640.57
    xT per match1.51.5
    xTA per match1.11.4
    Won balls, offensive half3330
    Pressing intensity0.490.59
    Pressing efficiency0.280.3
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.290.32
    Entries into the box per match1714
    Entries into the box against1013
    Pass completion %0.790.82
    Pass completion % under pressure0.730.77
    Passes per match389496
    Passes against per match344305
    Switches of play per match16.513.7
    Long balls per match3124
    Set piecesRosengårdFC Trollhättan
    xG from free kicks0.190.13
    Corners per match64.6
    Corners against per match2.84.3
    xG per corner0.030.02
    xGA per corner against0.020.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.430.34
    First touch, defensive corners %0.710.61
    OtherRosengårdFC Trollhättan
    Throw-in control0.560.59
    The goalkeepersAlexander Cederfelt (Rosengård)Jimmy Henriksson (FC Trollhättan)
    Saves5138
    Save %71%79%
    xG prevented71%57%
    Claims99 (93%)73 (92%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Rosengård vs FC Trollhättan according to our model?

    The model gives Rosengård a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rosengård 51%, draw 23%, FC Trollhättan 25%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.