Rosengård vs Laholm: Prediction & Odds (4 Sept 2026)

Swedish Ettan4 September 2026 19:00 CEST

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RosengårdPossession & high press

4–2

LaholmPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Rosengård (62%)

1 · Rosengård 62%X 20%18% Laholm · 2

62%

20%

18%

Analysis: Rosengård – Laholm

Oscar Nilsson · 4 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Rosengård's recent form is hard to ignore. Unbeaten in their last six league matches, they present a formidable challenge for Laholm. The home side's strength lies in their high-pressing, possession-based strategy, which has been pivotal in accumulating 31 points this season. This tactical approach might well unsettle Laholm, whose own style leans towards possession control but lacks the same offensive punch.

The one previous meeting between these sides saw Rosengård emerge victorious, but with a single encounter, the head-to-head sample is too small to heavily influence predictions. Instead, it's Rosengård's consistent performance metrics that paint a clearer picture. With an expected goal tally of 2.15 against their opponents' 1.01, the hosts are statistically poised to find the net more than once.

Laholm, trailing with only 18 points this season, will need to tighten their defense to stand a chance. Their expected goals against (xGA) stands at 1.5 per match, highlighting vulnerabilities Rosengård could exploit. The visitors' challenge will be to convert their possession into meaningful opportunities—something they've struggled with against stronger sides.

The model forecasts a 62% chance of a Rosengård win, with the most probable scorelines being a 2-1 or 2-0 victory for the hosts. This aligns with the 61% probability of over 2.5 goals, suggesting a game where Rosengård's offensive power shines. Both teams to score is rated at 57%, indicating Laholm might find the back of the net, albeit likely in a losing cause.

For punters seeking value, Bet365 offers odds of 1.60 for a Rosengård win, reflecting the expected dominance of the home side. Although not a certainty, it's a reasonable play given the hosts' superior form and tactical edge. The data tilts overwhelmingly towards a Rosengård victory, making their odds particularly appealing.

Rosengård

Form WDDDW

League ranking xG #8xGA #4xT #9xP/match #3Points #10

Key players

Emmanuel OnotuLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.17
Joel Voelkerling PerssonFxG 0.46 · xT 0.05
Ludvig CarliusFxG 0.37 · xT 0.37

Laholm

Form LWDLD

League ranking xG #19xGA #21xT #27xP/match #20Points #27

Key players

Philip ComnellFxG 0.35 · xT 0.08
Viggo RolfssonFxG 0.15 · xT 0.12
Elis WijkFxG 0.50 · xT -0.02

Final score

4 – 2

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Rosengård 62% · Draw 20% · Laholm 18%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - FC RosengårdBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,34fair 4,71-8 %

Hit

Matchresultat - Laholms FKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 13,62fair 21,30-36 %

Miss

Match prediction: Rosengård – Laholm

Predicted score matrix

Laholm →

Rosengård →

0–04.5%

0–14.0%

0–22.2%

0–30.7%

0–4+0.2%

1–08.8%

1–19.5%

1–24.7%

1–31.6%

1–4+0.5%

2–09.8%

2–19.9%

2–25.0%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.5%

3–07.0%

3–17.1%

3–23.6%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.4%

4+–06.2%

4+–16.3%

4+–23.2%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-110%
2.2-010%
3.1-19%
4.1-09%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

2,15–1,01

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

221%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@2.28

Over 2,561%

@1.55

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Rosengård to win62%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Rosengård to win62%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Joel Voelkerling Persson to score37%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Joel Voelkerling Persson to score37%
Lucas Ragnarsson to be booked22%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Rosengård	X	2 · Laholm
Betsafe	1.55	4.05	4.80
Betsson	1.55	4.05	4.80
Nordicbet	1.55	4.05	4.80

Odds updated 4 Sept, 16:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Laholm win since 30 August — the odds have shortened from 6.20 to 4.80 (−23%).

1+10 %

67 %57 %

1.41 → 1.55

X-6 %

26 %16 %

4.30 → 4.05

2-23 %

22 %12 %

6.20 → 4.80

Betsson · 11 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Rosengård 1Draw 0Laholm 0

Goals: 3–1 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

Key facts

Rosengård 1917 are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Rosengård

Laholm

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Rosengård (31–24)

Laholm (25–34)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Rosengård

Laholm

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Rosengård

Laholm

The teams in numbers

Performance	Rosengård	Laholm
Points	31	18
xPoints	31.5	24.1
xG per match	1.6	1.3
xGA per match	0.99	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.37	0.29
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.45

Playing style	Rosengård	Laholm
Build-up efficiency	0.4	0.38
Field tilt	0.61	0.41
xT per match	1.5	1.3
xTA per match	1.2	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	32	25
Pressing intensity	0.48	0.45
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.26
Entries into the box per match	17	12
Entries into the box against	11	13
Pass completion %	0.78	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.7
Passes per match	382	348
Passes against per match	361	389
Switches of play per match	16.4	16.3
Long balls per match	31	30

Set pieces	Rosengård	Laholm
xG from free kicks	0.2	0.1
Corners per match	5.8	4.1
Corners against per match	3.4	4.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.37
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.55

Other	Rosengård	Laholm
Throw-in control	0.55	0.52

The goalkeepers	Alexander Cederfelt (Rosengård)	Max Johnsson (Laholm)
Saves	56	52
Save %	71%	61%
xG prevented	70%	37%
Claims	105 (91%)	135 (93%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Rosengård vs Laholm according to our model?

The model gives Rosengård a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rosengård 62%, draw 20%, Laholm 18%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.