Stockholm Internazionale vs Järfälla: Prediction & Odds (21 Aug 2026)

Swedish Ettan21 August 2026 19:00 CEST15°11,2 mm13 km/h

Stockholm Internazionale

JärfällaCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Stockholm Internazionale (84%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 3.20 (+4 %)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Stockholm Internazionale 84%X 10%6% Järfälla · 2

84%

Analysis: Stockholm Internazionale – Järfälla

Marcus Johansson · 17 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Stockholm Internazionale ride the crest of a wave with four consecutive victories, a rich vein of form that sees them scoring in an impressive 15 league matches on the trot. As they prepare to host FC Järfälla, the numbers lean heavily in their favor. With model probabilities placing Stockholm Internazionale at a commanding 82% to win, compared to a meager 7% for the visitors, the home side seems set for another triumph. The model's expected goals of 3.28 for Stockholm Internazionale versus 0.70 for FC Järfälla further underscore this prediction.

Stockholm Internazionale's scoring prowess is matched by their historical home performance, boasting a 63% win record. Meanwhile, FC Järfälla are stumbling through a rough patch, having lost their last three matches. The rain forecast, with 45.1 mm expected, could slow the pace of the game, but the current form suggests that Stockholm Internazionale should still manage to find the net multiple times. The likely scorelines reflect this dominance, with 3-0 being the most probable outcome at 11%, followed by 2-0 at 10%, and 4-0 at 9%.

FC Järfälla's recent struggles and the unfavorable weather might suppress their chances further, affecting any potential to surprise. Given the over 2.5 goals probability at 76%, this match is inclined to witness a few goals, yet it's likely to be a one-sided affair, with both teams not expected to score together more than half the time.

For the betting enthusiast, the sharpest angle lies with the home victory, offering value across multiple bookmakers. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all provide odds of 1.31 for a Stockholm Internazionale win, presenting an 8% edge based on the model's valuation. In this clash, backing the home side not only aligns with form and statistics but also offers a calculated edge for those keen on capitalizing on the odds.

Stockholm Internazionale

Form DWWWW

Järfälla

Form DWLLL

League ranking xG #21xGA #29xT #29xP/match #27Points #29

Key players

Adam WürtzFxG 0.21 · xT 0.21
Abdulmannan KhalilFxG 0.46 · xT -0.05
Anthony PortillaCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Stockholm Internazionale – Järfälla

Predicted score matrix

Järfälla →

Stockholm Internazionale →

0–02.4%

0–11.2%

0–20.4%

0–30.1%

0–4+0.0%

1–07.3%

1–14.4%

1–21.2%

1–30.2%

1–4+0.0%

2–011.8%

2–16.8%

2–21.9%

2–30.4%

2–4+0.1%

3–012.5%

3–17.2%

3–22.1%

3–30.4%

3–4+0.1%

4+–022.3%

4+–112.8%

4+–23.7%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.3-013%
2.2-012%
3.4-010%
4.1-07%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

3,19–0,57

Both teams to score

42%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,8

18%

217%

321%

419%

5+33%

Under 2,527%

@2.75

Over 2,573%

@1.40EV+2%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Stockholm Internazionale to win84%
Over 1.5 goals89%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Stockholm Internazionale to win84%
Over 2.5 goals73%
Villiam Dahlström to score41%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score42%
Over 2.5 goals73%
Villiam Dahlström to score41%
Peter Saweris to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.533% probability@3.20BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
Over 4.533% probability@3.20BetssonEV+4%reference odds
Over 4.533% probability@3.20NordicbetEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Stockholm Internazionale	X	2 · Järfälla
Betsafe	EV+ 3% 1.23	5.70	8.40
Betsson	EV+ 3% 1.23	5.70	8.40
Nordicbet	EV+ 3% 1.23	5.70	8.40

Odds updated 19 Aug, 17:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Stockholm Internazionale win since 18 August — the odds have shortened from 1.30 to 1.23 (−5%).

1-5 %

74 %64 %

1.30 → 1.23

X+15 %

24 %14 %

4.95 → 5.70

2+11 %

18 %8 %

7.60 → 8.40

Over 2,5-4 %

70 %60 %

1.46 → 1.40

Betsson · 6 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 19/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Stockholm Internazionale come into this round on 4 straight wins.
Stockholm Internazionale have scored in 15 consecutive league matches.
FC Järfälla have lost 3 in a row.
Stockholm Internazionale win 63% of their home matches all-time (30 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Järfälla

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Järfälla (23–37)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Järfälla

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Järfälla

The goalkeepers	Stockholm Internazionale	Erik von Feilitzen (Järfälla)
Saves	–	45
Save %	–	64%
xG prevented	–	42%
Claims	–	48 (89%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Stockholm Internazionale vs Järfälla according to our model?

The model gives Stockholm Internazionale a 84% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Stockholm Internazionale 84%, draw 10%, Järfälla 6%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 3-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 73% and under at 27%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 42% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.