01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Lunds BK to win67%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
Swedish Ettan15°9,8 mm34 km/h
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UtsiktenCounter-attacks & crossesvs
Lunds BKPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Lunds BK (67%)Best value by the model: 1 · Utsikten @ 8.80 (+47 %)
Utsikten – Lunds BK · Swedish Ettan
1 · Utsikten 17%X 16%67% Lunds BK · 2
17%
16%
67%
Analysis: Utsikten – Lunds BK
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT: Lunds BK's dominance in possession control is a crucial factor in this matchup against Utsikten. The visitors' ability to dictate play has been reflected in their impressive 67% probability of winning, according to the model. With a points tally of 34 compared to Utsikten's mere 7, Lunds BK clearly holds the upper hand both in form and underlying metrics.
Utsikten, who rely heavily on counterattacks and crosses, have struggled to convert these tactics into tangible results. Their expected goals of just 1.14 suggest they may find it challenging to break down a Lunds BK side that boasts a superior xGA of 1.3 per match. The home side's defensive vulnerabilities are stark, conceding an average of 2.2 expected goals per game. This defensive frailty spells trouble against a Lunds BK attack that averages a robust 1.9 xG.
The head-to-head record, though limited to just one match, saw the visitors emerge victorious. While historical data is scant, it aligns with current form and suggests a continuation of Lunds BK's superiority. The adverse weather conditions, with 9.8 mm of rain expected, could slightly dampen goal-scoring opportunities but are factored into the model's high over 2.5 goals projection at 65%.
Lunds BK's likely path to victory seems clear, with a most probable outcome of 1-2. The potential for both teams to score remains at 61%, suggesting Utsikten might find the net despite their challenges. Lunds BK's possession-heavy style against a defense prone to conceding further supports the model's clear lean toward a visitors' win.
UtsiktenForm DLDDL
League ranking xG #30xGA #32xT #18xP/match #31Points #32
Key players
- Melvin KoliqiFxG 0.20 · xT 0.29
- Pontus OlssonRWxG 0.04 · xT 0.29
- Enzo AndrénLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.12
Lunds BKForm DDLWW
League ranking xG #1xGA #12xT #11xP/match #6Points #8
Key players
- Emil LindmanFxG 0.19 · xT 0.37
- Momodou BojangFxG 0.66 · xT 0.09
- Alexander NilssonLWxG 0.38 · xT 0.22
Match prediction: Utsikten – Lunds BK
Predicted score matrix
Lunds BK →
Utsikten →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.9%
0–17.6%
0–28.6%
0–36.2%
0–4+5.7%
1
1–03.8%
1–19.2%
1–29.8%
1–37.1%
1–4+6.5%
2
2–02.3%
2–15.1%
2–25.6%
2–34.1%
2–4+3.7%
3
3–00.9%
3–11.9%
3–22.1%
3–31.5%
3–4+1.4%
4+
4+–00.3%
4+–10.7%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-210%
- 2.1-19%
- 3.0-29%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-37%
Expected goals
1,14–2,18
Both teams to score
61%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
111%
220%
322%
418%
5+24%
Under 2,535%
@2.68
Over 2,565%
@1.43
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Lunds BK to win67%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Aleandro Wihlborg Costa to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score61%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Victor Andersson to score26%
- Felix Wennergrund to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Utsikten17% probability@8.80BetsafeEV+47%reference odds
- 1 · Utsikten17% probability@8.80BetssonEV+47%reference odds
- 1 · Utsikten17% probability@8.80NordicbetEV+47%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Utsikten | X | 2 · Lunds BK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 47% 8.80 | 5.70 | 1.23 |
| Betsson | EV+ 47% 8.80 | 5.70 | 1.23 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 47% 8.80 | 5.70 | 1.23 |
Odds updated 4 Sept, 09:38
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Lunds BK win since 3 September — the odds have shortened from 1.44 to 1.23 (−15%).
1+60 %
23 %3 %
5.50 → 8.80
X+30 %
28 %8 %
4.40 → 5.70
2-15 %
78 %58 %
1.44 → 1.23
Over 2,5+1 %
73 %53 %
1.41 → 1.43
Betsson · 6 recorded price levels · 03/09/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesUtsikten 0Draw 0Lunds BK 1
Goals: 0–5 (⌀ 5)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Utsikten
Lunds BK
Utsikten (16–48)
Lunds BK (41–25)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Utsikten
Lunds BK
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Utsikten
Lunds BK
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Utsikten | Lunds BK |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 34 |
| xPoints | 17.7 | 30.6 |
| xG per match | 1 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.19 | 0.46 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| Playing style | Utsikten | Lunds BK |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 31 | 39 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.48 | 0.5 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 18 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 319 | 344 |
| Passes against per match | 442 | 306 |
| Switches of play per match | 14.9 | 20.6 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Utsikten | Lunds BK |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 5.6 |
| Corners against per match | 4.7 | 4.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.29 | 0.46 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| Other | Utsikten | Lunds BK |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.6 | 0.43 |
| The goalkeepers | Linus Dahlgren (Utsikten) | Andreas Alexandersson (Lunds BK) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 37 | 52 |
| Save % | 66% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 52% | 38% |
| Claims | 44 (82%) | 114 (92%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Utsikten vs Lunds BK according to our model?
The model gives Lunds BK a 67% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Utsikten 17%, draw 16%, Lunds BK 67%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.