Swedish Ettan19°17 km/hUpdated

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    VasalundVasalundPossession & high press
    vs
    The model's lean: 1 · Vasalund (42%)
    SollentunaSollentunaPossession & high press

    Vasalund – Sollentuna · Swedish Ettan

    1 · Vasalund 42%X 26%32% Sollentuna · 2
    VasalundVasalund
    Form WLDLL
    League ranking xG #21xGA #21xT #22xP/match #26Points #26
    Key players
    • Marko NikolicFxG 0.19 · xT 0.24
    • Ali KhanLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.52
    • Elias Alarcon Mac CallumFxG 0.5 · xT -0.07
    SollentunaSollentuna
    Form DDDLL
    League ranking xG #29xGA #12xT #14xP/match #29Points #28
    Key players
    • Dida RashidiFxG 0.2 · xT 0.13
    • Johannes DanhoLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.31
    • David BengtssonCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.14

    Match prediction: Vasalund – Sollentuna

    Predicted score matrix

    Sollentuna →
    Vasalund →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.9%
    0–15.4%
    0–24.4%
    0–32.3%
    0–4+1.3%
    1
    1–06.0%
    1–110.2%
    1–27.8%
    1–34.1%
    1–4+2.3%
    2
    2–05.5%
    2–18.7%
    2–26.8%
    2–33.6%
    2–4+2.0%
    3
    3–03.2%
    3–15.1%
    3–24.0%
    3–32.1%
    3–4+1.2%
    4+
    4+–02.1%
    4+–13.3%
    4+–22.6%
    4+–31.4%
    4+–4+0.8%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-28%
    4. 4.2-27%
    5. 5.1-06%
    Expected goals
    1,76–1,57
    Both teams to score
    66%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,3
    Under 2,535%
    –
    Over 2,565%
    –

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Analysis: Vasalund – Sollentuna

    Erik Lindberg · · How the predictions work

    Six matches between Vasalunds IF and Sollentuna FK since early 2023, and a pattern emerges: Vasalunds IF tend to have the upper hand. With four victories to their name, Vasalunds assert dominance, both in terms of points and xPoints, subtly suggesting they might have the psychological edge coming into this matchup. This isn't just a matter of historical head-to-heads; Vasalunds' xG per match of 1.3, higher than Sollentuna's 1.1, indicates they create more scoring opportunities.

    Sollentuna FK, however, isn't without their strengths. Their xGA per match of 1.3 suggests a slightly tighter defence compared to Vasalunds' 1.5, and they share a stylistic approach of possession and high pressing with their rivals. While historically outpaced, the 32% model probability for a Sollentuna win isn't dismissible.

    Vasalunds IF is riding slightly ahead in both the points tally (15 to 13) and expected points (17.1 to 15.1). This edge, combined with a home advantage and their superior head-to-head record, supports the model's 42% lean in their favour. The expected goals tally, Vasalunds at 1.76 versus Sollentuna’s 1.57, tilts the balance towards a high-scoring affair, in line with the 65% probability of over 2.5 goals.

    Given the numbers, a 2-1 scoreline in favour of Vasalunds IF seems plausible, mirroring the model's 9% likelihood. The match's high-scoring history, averaging 3.7 goals per meeting, further buttresses the over 2.5 goals scenario. Both teams to score at 66% is another angle worth considering, tying into the attacking profiles of both sides.

    For those looking for a sharper angle, Vasalunds IF to win at 2.37 on Bet365 presents value. With their historical dominance, marginally superior xG, and a proven scoring ability in this fixture, it's an opportunity that may well be worth exploring.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    6 matches
    Vasalund 4Draw 0Sollentuna 2
    Goals: 14–8 (⌀ 3,7)

    Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Vasalund dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 2 in 6 meetings.
    • A high-scoring fixture: 3.7 goals per meeting on average.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Vasalund
    Sollentuna
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Vasalund (20–30)
    Sollentuna (12–19)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Vasalund
    Tobias Westin: 231 passningar, xT 0.28WestinEsaias Torppa: 151 passningar, xT 0.19TorppaJohn Lundström: 150 passningar, xT 0.82LundströmPetter Soelberg: 149 passningar, xT 0.63SoelbergLudvig Lundvall: 146 passningar, xT 0.34LundvallMartin Östergren: 137 passningar, xT 0.04ÖstergrenTheo Graasvoll: 124 passningar, xT 0.16GraasvollBiryan Bilgec: 85 passningar, xT 0.3BilgecMelvin Bajrovic: 72 passningar, xT 0.32BajrovicKalle Björklund: 69 passningar, xT 0.01BjörklundMaximilian Dejene: 63 passningar, xT 0.53Dejene
    Sollentuna
    Wilgot Marshage: 304 passningar, xT 1.3MarshageEmil Stenstrand: 265 passningar, xT 1.55StenstrandDavid Bengtsson: 246 passningar, xT 0.47BengtssonUmit Aras: 163 passningar, xT 0.16ArasKalle Selin Stregart: 145 passningar, xT 0.47StregartSalim Nkubiri: 128 passningar, xT 0.02NkubiriDida Rashidi: 108 passningar, xT 0.31RashidiOskar Käck: 103 passningar, xT 0.27KäckJakob Bäckström: 97 passningar, xT 0.59BäckströmErik Lundell: 88 passningar, xT 0LundellJohannes Danho: 73 passningar, xT 0.71Danho
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Vasalund
    Tobias Westin: 231 passningar, xT 0.28WestinEsaias Torppa: 151 passningar, xT 0.19TorppaJohn Lundström: 150 passningar, xT 0.82LundströmPetter Soelberg: 149 passningar, xT 0.63SoelbergLudvig Lundvall: 146 passningar, xT 0.34LundvallMartin Östergren: 137 passningar, xT 0.04ÖstergrenTheo Graasvoll: 124 passningar, xT 0.16GraasvollBiryan Bilgec: 85 passningar, xT 0.3BilgecMelvin Bajrovic: 72 passningar, xT 0.32BajrovicKalle Björklund: 69 passningar, xT 0.01BjörklundMaximilian Dejene: 63 passningar, xT 0.53Dejene
    Sollentuna
    Wilgot Marshage: 304 passningar, xT 1.3MarshageEmil Stenstrand: 265 passningar, xT 1.55StenstrandDavid Bengtsson: 246 passningar, xT 0.47BengtssonUmit Aras: 163 passningar, xT 0.16ArasKalle Selin Stregart: 145 passningar, xT 0.47StregartSalim Nkubiri: 128 passningar, xT 0.02NkubiriDida Rashidi: 108 passningar, xT 0.31RashidiOskar Käck: 103 passningar, xT 0.27KäckJakob Bäckström: 97 passningar, xT 0.59BäckströmErik Lundell: 88 passningar, xT 0LundellJohannes Danho: 73 passningar, xT 0.71Danho

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceVasalundSollentuna
    Points1513
    xPoints17.115.1
    xG per match1.31.1
    xGA per match1.51.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.190.13
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.40.21
    Playing styleVasalundSollentuna
    Build-up efficiency0.360.32
    Field tilt0.550.59
    xT per match1.41.4
    xTA per match1.41.2
    Won balls, offensive half3230
    Pressing intensity0.540.46
    Pressing efficiency0.280.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.270.24
    Entries into the box per match1413
    Entries into the box against1410
    Pass completion %0.80.82
    Pass completion % under pressure0.740.77
    Passes per match372411
    Passes against per match311361
    Switches of play per match16.613.4
    Long balls per match3133
    Set piecesVasalundSollentuna
    xG from free kicks0.150.14
    Corners per match4.94.5
    Corners against per match5.35
    xG per corner0.040.05
    xGA per corner against0.040.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.450.45
    First touch, defensive corners %0.580.67
    OtherVasalundSollentuna
    Throw-in control0.530.59
    The goalkeepersSindri Olafsson (Vasalund)Oscar Franck (Sollentuna)
    Saves2230
    Save %60%67%
    xG prevented41%37%
    Claims43 (90%)65 (93%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Vasalund vs Sollentuna according to our model?

    The model gives Vasalund a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vasalund 42%, draw 26%, Sollentuna 32%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 66% according to the model.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.