Vasalund vs Sollentuna: Prediction & Odds (3 Aug 2026)

Swedish Ettan3 August 2026 19:00 CEST19°17 km/h

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VasalundPossession & high press

1–1

SollentunaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Vasalund (42%)

1 · Vasalund 42%X 26%32% Sollentuna · 2

42%

26%

32%

Analysis: Vasalund – Sollentuna

Erik Lindberg · 3 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Six matches between Vasalunds IF and Sollentuna FK since early 2023, and a pattern emerges: Vasalunds IF tend to have the upper hand. With four victories to their name, Vasalunds assert dominance, both in terms of points and xPoints, subtly suggesting they might have the psychological edge coming into this matchup. This isn't just a matter of historical head-to-heads; Vasalunds' xG per match of 1.3, higher than Sollentuna's 1.1, indicates they create more scoring opportunities.

Sollentuna FK, however, isn't without their strengths. Their xGA per match of 1.3 suggests a slightly tighter defence compared to Vasalunds' 1.5, and they share a stylistic approach of possession and high pressing with their rivals. While historically outpaced, the 32% model probability for a Sollentuna win isn't dismissible.

Vasalunds IF is riding slightly ahead in both the points tally (15 to 13) and expected points (17.1 to 15.1). This edge, combined with a home advantage and their superior head-to-head record, supports the model's 42% lean in their favour. The expected goals tally, Vasalunds at 1.76 versus Sollentuna’s 1.57, tilts the balance towards a high-scoring affair, in line with the 65% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Given the numbers, a 2-1 scoreline in favour of Vasalunds IF seems plausible, mirroring the model's 9% likelihood. The match's high-scoring history, averaging 3.7 goals per meeting, further buttresses the over 2.5 goals scenario. Both teams to score at 66% is another angle worth considering, tying into the attacking profiles of both sides.

For those looking for a sharper angle, Vasalunds IF to win at 2.37 on Bet365 presents value. With their historical dominance, marginally superior xG, and a proven scoring ability in this fixture, it's an opportunity that may well be worth exploring.

Vasalund

Form WLDLL

League ranking xG #21xGA #21xT #22xP/match #26Points #26

Key players

Marko NikolicFxG 0.19 · xT 0.24
Ali KhanLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.52
Elias Alarcon Mac CallumFxG 0.50 · xT -0.07

Sollentuna

Form DDDLL

League ranking xG #29xGA #12xT #14xP/match #29Points #28

Key players

Dida RashidiFxG 0.20 · xT 0.13
Johannes DanhoLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.31
David BengtssonCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.14

Final score

1 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Vasalund 42% · Draw 26% · Sollentuna 32%

Match prediction: Vasalund – Sollentuna

Predicted score matrix

Sollentuna →

Vasalund →

0–03.9%

0–15.4%

0–24.4%

0–32.3%

0–4+1.3%

1–06.0%

1–110.2%

1–27.8%

1–34.1%

1–4+2.3%

2–05.5%

2–18.7%

2–26.8%

2–33.6%

2–4+2.0%

3–03.2%

3–15.1%

3–24.0%

3–32.1%

3–4+1.2%

4+–02.1%

4+–13.3%

4+–22.6%

4+–31.4%

4+–4+0.8%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.2-27%
5.1-06%

Expected goals

1,76–1,57

Both teams to score

66%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

111%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,535%

–

Over 2,565%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Vasalund or draw (1X)66%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Vasalund or draw (1X)66%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Elias Alarcon Mac Callum to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score66%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Elias Alarcon Mac Callum to score25%
Emil Stenstrand to be booked18%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Vasalund 4Draw 0Sollentuna 2

Goals: 14–8 (⌀ 3,7)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

Key facts

Vasalund dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 2 in 6 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.7 goals per meeting on average.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Vasalund

Sollentuna

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Vasalund (20–30)

Sollentuna (12–19)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Vasalund

Sollentuna

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Vasalund

Sollentuna

The teams in numbers

Performance	Vasalund	Sollentuna
Points	15	13
xPoints	17.1	15.1
xG per match	1.3	1.1
xGA per match	1.5	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.13
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.4	0.21

Playing style	Vasalund	Sollentuna
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.32
Field tilt	0.55	0.59
xT per match	1.4	1.4
xTA per match	1.4	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	32	30
Pressing intensity	0.54	0.46
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.24
Entries into the box per match	14	13
Entries into the box against	14	10
Pass completion %	0.8	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.77
Passes per match	372	411
Passes against per match	311	361
Switches of play per match	16.6	13.4
Long balls per match	31	33

Set pieces	Vasalund	Sollentuna
xG from free kicks	0.15	0.14
Corners per match	4.9	4.5
Corners against per match	5.3	5
xG per corner	0.04	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.45	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.67

Other	Vasalund	Sollentuna
Throw-in control	0.53	0.59

The goalkeepers	Sindri Olafsson (Vasalund)	Oscar Franck (Sollentuna)
Saves	22	30
Save %	60%	67%
xG prevented	41%	37%
Claims	43 (90%)	65 (93%)

Teams & more matches this round

Vasalund

Fixtures, form & tips

Sollentuna

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Vasalund vs Sollentuna according to our model?

The model gives Vasalund a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vasalund 42%, draw 26%, Sollentuna 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 66% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.