Ankara Keçiörengücü vs Pendikspor: Prediction & Odds (16 Aug 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig16 August 202621°14 km/h

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Ankara KeçiörengücüLow block & direct

PendiksporPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Ankara Keçiörengücü (47%)

1 · Ankara Keçiörengücü 47%X 27%26% Pendikspor · 2

47%

27%

26%

Analysis: Ankara Keçiörengücü – Pendikspor

Marcus Johansson · 11 August 2026 · How the predictions work

47% leans like a solid hunch towards Ankara Keciorengucu, especially when you're eyeing probabilities juxtaposed with Pendikspor's mere 26% chance in this Turkish 1. Lig face-off. The numbers don't just tilt in one direction; they practically do a jig on the Ankara side of the pitch. But before you start counting your chickens, consider the small head-to-head sample of just four games since 2024. It paints Ankara Keciorengucu unbeaten with two wins and two draws, yet hardly a robust mural of dominance.

Ankara Keciorengucu sits with zero points in the league, but their xPoints tell a different story at 2.0 compared to Pendikspor's meager 0.6. The expected goals (xG) figures from this season back them up, scoring a hefty 1.9 per game to Pendikspor's 1.2, while defensively, they manage to keep their expected goals against (xGA) at 1.2, a stark contrast to Pendikspor’s leaky 1.9. If ever there was a game to turn potential into points, this is it.

Pendikspor, with their possession-heavy, high-press style, might struggle to impose their will. Ankara Keciorengucu’s direct approach could exploit the gaps behind Pendikspor’s advanced lines. The most likely scorelines hover around 1-1 (13%) and 1-0 (11%), hinting at a tight affair. With the model giving only a 47% chance for over 2.5 goals, goals might be at a premium — especially when you throw in the playing styles and the potential for a tactical chess match.

A 1-0 victory for Ankara Keciorengucu isn’t just a shot in the dark; it’s the sharp edge of the numbers blade. The model’s nod towards a low-scoring game with a slight edge to Ankara suggests value in betting on under 2.5 goals at Paddy Power where the odds sit at 1.95. It’s a calculated gamble, not a blind leap, and that’s where the smart money might just lie.

Ankara Keçiörengücü

Form LWWLL

League ranking xG #3xGA #11xT #16xP/match #6Points #14

Key players

Francis EzehFxG 0.25 · xT 0.19
Ibrahim AkdagCDMxG 0.81 · xT 0.10
Wellington Ferreira NascimentoCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.11

Pendikspor

Form DWDLD

League ranking xG #11xGA #19xT #1xP/match #19Points #13

Key players

Hakan YeşilRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.93
Bekir KaradenizCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.07
Mesut OzdemirCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Ankara Keçiörengücü – Pendikspor

Predicted score matrix

Pendikspor →

Ankara Keçiörengücü →

0–08.1%

0–18.3%

0–24.8%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.6%

1–010.9%

1–112.8%

1–26.9%

1–32.5%

1–4+0.9%

2–08.1%

2–19.0%

2–25.0%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–03.9%

3–14.3%

3–22.4%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.9%

4+–12.2%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.0-18%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,44–1,11

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

@1.85

Over 2,547%

@1.83

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Ankara Keçiörengücü to win47%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Ankara Keçiörengücü to win47%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Antenor Junior Fernándes da Silva Vitoria to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Antenor Junior Fernándes da Silva Vitoria to score25%
Hakan Yeşil to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Ankara Keçiörengücü47% probability@2.19BetsafeEV+3%
1 · Ankara Keçiörengücü47% probability@2.19BetssonEV+3%
1 · Ankara Keçiörengücü47% probability@2.19NordicbetEV+3%

Bookmaker	1 · Ankara Keçiörengücü	X	2 · Pendikspor
Betsafe	EV+ 3% 2.19	3.40	2.92
Betsson	EV+ 3% 2.19	3.40	2.92
Nordicbet	EV+ 3% 2.19	3.40	2.92

Odds updated 12 Aug, 11:36

Odds movement

10 %

44 %39 %

2.19 → 2.19

X0 %

29 %24 %

3.40 → 3.40

20 %

34 %29 %

2.92 → 2.92

Over 2,5+3 %

53 %48 %

1.78 → 1.83

Betsson · 2 recorded price levels · 12/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Ankara Keçiörengücü 2Draw 2Pendikspor 0

Goals: 4–1 (⌀ 1,2)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Ankara Keçiörengücü

Pendikspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Ankara Keçiörengücü (3–4)

Pendikspor (2–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Ankara Keçiörengücü

Pendikspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Ankara Keçiörengücü

Pendikspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Ankara Keçiörengücü	Pendikspor
Points	0	1
xPoints	2	0.6
xG per match	1.9	1.2
xGA per match	1.2	1.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.54	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.52	0.04

Playing style	Ankara Keçiörengücü	Pendikspor
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.32
Field tilt	0.49	0.79
xT per match	0.65	1.6
xTA per match	0.56	0.8
Won balls, offensive half	28	21
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.26
Pressing efficiency	0.22	0.39
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.09	0.33
Entries into the box per match	14	17
Entries into the box against	15	5
Pass completion %	0.78	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.78
Passes per match	258	405
Passes against per match	400	226
Switches of play per match	19.5	34.5
Long balls per match	28	37

Set pieces	Ankara Keçiörengücü	Pendikspor
xG from free kicks	0	0.15
Corners per match	4.9	3.8
Corners against per match	3.9	0.96
xG per corner	0	0
xGA per corner against	0.01	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.8	0.25
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	1

Other	Ankara Keçiörengücü	Pendikspor
Throw-in control	0.64	0.89

The goalkeepers	Berkan Keskin (Ankara Keçiörengücü)	Emre Koyuncu (Pendikspor)
Saves	2	2
Save %	100%	50%
xG prevented	100%	63%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Ankara Keçiörengücü vs Pendikspor according to our model?

The model gives Ankara Keçiörengücü a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ankara Keçiörengücü 47%, draw 27%, Pendikspor 26%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.