Bandırmaspor vs Ankara Keçiörengücü: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig23 August 202624°18 km/h

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BandırmasporPossession control

Ankara KeçiörengücüLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Bandırmaspor (42%)

1 · Bandırmaspor 42%X 29%29% Ankara Keçiörengücü · 2

42%

29%

Analysis: Bandırmaspor – Ankara Keçiörengücü

Erik Lindberg · 18 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Fourteen unbeaten matches. That's the streak Bandirmaspor rides into this fixture, a testament to their home prowess and a key figure that shapes the betting landscape. A club that wins 63% of its home games all-time is no stranger to capitalizing on home-field advantage. As they prepare to host Ankara Keciorengucu, the odds appear stacked in their favour, at least according to the model's 42% win probability.

Bandirmaspor's playing style, characterized by possession control, contrasts sharply with Ankara Keciorengucu's low block and direct approach. This clash of footballing philosophies might suggest a tactical stalemate, particularly with Keciorengucu's inclination to sit deep. However, the likelihood of a 1-1 draw (13%) isn't runaway. The resulting tension is amplified by the fact Ankara Keciorengucu edges them in xPoints and xG per match, suggesting a team that's more potent than its current league standing implies.

Numbers play a pivotal role in shaping expectations here. The expected goals (xG) model leans towards low-scoring outcomes. Bandirmaspor's xG of 1.32 against Keciorengucu’s 1.04 suggests a slender advantage, yet also speaks to a tightly contested fixture. With the over 2.5 goals sitting at 42% and both teams to score at 48%, there's little in it to encourage a goal fest. The small sample of four head-to-heads since 2024 is hardly definitive, emphasising form and xG as more reliable yardsticks.

Ankara Keciorengucu’s defensive vulnerabilities, with an xGA of 1.4 per match, could be their Achilles' heel against a Bandirmaspor side adept at exploiting home advantage. The absence of weather effects removes any dampener on potential goal-scoring exploits, but the model already accounts for this, keeping the focus squarely on footballing factors.

Value hunters will keenly eye the 2.52 odds offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. With a 7% edge on Bandirmaspor's home win probability, there’s a tangible betting angle that’s hard to ignore. As these two sides face off, Bandirmaspor looks poised to edge a tight 1-0 victory, nudging both the scoreline and the betting scales in their favor.

Bandırmaspor

Form WDWWD

League ranking xG #8xGA #3xT #20xP/match #6Points #4

Key players

Ali UlgenRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
Dean LicoCDMxG 0.08 · xT -0.05
Emirhan AyhanRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.02

Ankara Keçiörengücü

Form WWLLW

League ranking xG #5xGA #12xT #13xP/match #4Points #11

Key players

Francis EzehFxG 0.13 · xT 0.20
Ibrahim AkdagCDMxG 0.41 · xT 0.08
Ishak KaraogulFxG 0.10 · xT -0.02

Match prediction: Bandırmaspor – Ankara Keçiörengücü

Predicted score matrix

Ankara Keçiörengücü →

Bandırmaspor →

0–09.8%

0–19.5%

0–25.1%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.6%

1–012.0%

1–113.3%

1–26.8%

1–32.4%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.2%

2–18.5%

2–24.5%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–03.6%

3–13.8%

3–22.0%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.6%

4+–11.7%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-012%
3.0-010%
4.0-19%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,32–1,04

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.71

Over 2,542%

@2.00

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Bandırmaspor or draw (1X)71%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Bandırmaspor or draw (1X)71%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Muhammed Gümüşkaya to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Muhammed Gümüşkaya to score29%
İbrahim Akdağ to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Bandırmaspor42% probability@2.53BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
1 · Bandırmaspor42% probability@2.53BetssonEV+7%reference odds
1 · Bandırmaspor42% probability@2.53NordicbetEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Bandırmaspor	X	2 · Ankara Keçiörengücü
Betsafe	EV+ 7% 2.53	3.10	2.67
Betsson	EV+ 7% 2.53	3.10	2.67
Nordicbet	EV+ 7% 2.53	3.10	2.67

Odds updated 18 Aug, 16:36

Odds movement

10 %

39 %34 %

2.52 → 2.53

X+3 %

33 %28 %

3.00 → 3.10

2-3 %

36 %31 %

2.76 → 2.67

Over 2,5+3 %

49 %44 %

1.95 → 2.00

Betsson · 2 recorded price levels · 17/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Bandırmaspor 1Draw 1Ankara Keçiörengücü 2

Goals: 5–7 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

Key facts

Bandirmaspor are unbeaten in their last 14 league matches.
Bandirmaspor win 63% of their home matches all-time (41 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Bandırmaspor

Ankara Keçiörengücü

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Bandırmaspor (3–0)

Ankara Keçiörengücü (7–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Bandırmaspor

Ankara Keçiörengücü

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Bandırmaspor

Ankara Keçiörengücü

The teams in numbers

Performance	Bandırmaspor	Ankara Keçiörengücü
Points	4	3
xPoints	3.4	3.9
xG per match	1.2	1.6
xGA per match	0.61	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.13	0.36
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.07	0.35

Playing style	Bandırmaspor	Ankara Keçiörengücü
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.34
Field tilt	0.56	0.46
xT per match	0.47	0.78
xTA per match	0.56	0.99
Won balls, offensive half	22	22
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.37	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.35	0.13
Entries into the box per match	9	13
Entries into the box against	9	15
Pass completion %	0.82	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.71
Passes per match	420	265
Passes against per match	248	407
Switches of play per match	34.2	24.8
Long balls per match	43	37

Set pieces	Bandırmaspor	Ankara Keçiörengücü
xG from free kicks	0.04	0
Corners per match	1.4	3.5
Corners against per match	3.9	5
xG per corner	0.05	0
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.67	0.57
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.5

Other	Bandırmaspor	Ankara Keçiörengücü
Throw-in control	0.73	0.59

The goalkeepers	Akin Alkan (Bandırmaspor)	Emre Satilmis (Ankara Keçiörengücü)
Saves	7	3
Save %	100%	38%
xG prevented	100%	18%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Bandırmaspor vs Ankara Keçiörengücü according to our model?

The model gives Bandırmaspor a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bandırmaspor 42%, draw 29%, Ankara Keçiörengücü 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.