01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Esenler Erokspor to win55%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
Turkish 1. Lig24°16 km/h
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ÜmraniyesporBalanced & physicalvs
Esenler EroksporBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 2 · Esenler Erokspor (55%)
Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.
Ümraniyespor – Esenler Erokspor · Turkish 1. Lig
1 · Ümraniyespor 19%X 25%55% Esenler Erokspor · 2
19%
25%
55%
Analysis: Ümraniyespor – Esenler Erokspor
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Fifty-five percent — that's the model's probability tipping Esenler Erokspor to triumph over Umraniyespor, and it's a compelling figure. This matchup, dripping with a sense of competitive imbalance, leans heavily towards the visitors. Despite Esenler Erokspor's marginal point advantage over Umraniyespor (2 to 1), it's their potential to outperform expectations that captures attention.
Umraniyespor, a team characterized by physicality and balance, faces an uphill battle against Esenler Erokspor, who mirror this style yet carry a sharper edge. The expected goals (xG) metric suggests a modest tally for Umraniyespor at 0.93, while Esenler Erokspor sits comfortably higher at 1.68. Combined, these figures paint a picture of a likely low-scoring affair, with the most probable outcomes being a 0-1 or 1-1 draw, each at 12%.
Though Umraniyespor holds an xPoints edge (2.9 over Esenler Erokspor's 2.1), this nuanced stat doesn't quite translate to imminent success on the pitch. Their better xGA (0.99 to Esenler Erokspor's 1.2) underscores a tighter defense, yet this may not suffice against the visitors' potential to find the net. Historical encounters, albeit limited to four matches, show a slight advantage for Esenler Erokspor, with two wins to Umraniyespor's one.
Esenler Erokspor's edge is further sweetened by the odds. At 2.04, backed by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there's a tangible 13% value edge based on the model's 55% probability assessment. This presents a ripe opportunity for punters seeking value. Given the numbers, a narrow 0-1 victory for Esenler Erokspor seems the most plausible outcome, with a cautious lean towards under 2.5 goals. Savvy bettors might find the away odds too tempting to ignore, especially when the model's confidence converges with bookmaker generosity.
ÜmraniyesporForm LWLDL
League ranking xG #11xGA #8xT #5xP/match #10Points #13
Key players
- Cebio SoukouFxG 0.15 · xT 0.10
- Kerem SenLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.13
- Santeri HostikkaLWxG 0.38 · xT 0.41
Esenler EroksporForm LDLDD
League ranking xG #9xGA #10xT #4xP/match #14Points #12
Key players
- Enes AlicLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.31
- Onur UlasCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.17
- Mikail OkyarCDMxG 0.10 · xT 0.08
Match prediction: Ümraniyespor – Esenler Erokspor
Predicted score matrix
Esenler Erokspor →
Ümraniyespor →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.7%
0–112.0%
0–210.4%
0–35.8%
0–4+3.6%
1
1–06.5%
1–111.8%
1–29.7%
1–35.4%
1–4+3.3%
2
2–03.2%
2–15.3%
2–24.5%
2–32.5%
2–4+1.5%
3
3–01.0%
3–11.6%
3–21.4%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–00.3%
4+–10.5%
4+–20.4%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-112%
- 2.1-112%
- 3.0-210%
- 4.1-210%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
0,93–1,68
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
225%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@1.90
Over 2,548%
@1.78
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Esenler Erokspor to win55%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- Braian José Samudio Segovia to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Cèbio Soukou to score29%
- Mikail Okyar to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Esenler Erokspor55% probability@1.99BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
- 2 · Esenler Erokspor55% probability@1.99BetssonEV+10%reference odds
- 2 · Esenler Erokspor55% probability@1.99NordicbetEV+10%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Ümraniyespor | X | 2 · Esenler Erokspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.38 | 3.38 | EV+ 10% 1.99 |
| Betsson | 3.38 | 3.38 | EV+ 10% 1.99 |
| Nordicbet | 3.38 | 3.38 | EV+ 10% 1.99 |
Odds updated 18 Aug, 20:36
Odds movement
1-7 %
31 %21 %
3.65 → 3.38
X-7 %
31 %21 %
3.65 → 3.38
2+9 %
52 %42 %
1.83 → 1.99
Over 2,5+2 %
57 %47 %
1.75 → 1.78
Betsson · 7 recorded price levels · 16/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesÜmraniyespor 1Draw 1Esenler Erokspor 2
Goals: 2–4 (⌀ 1,5)
Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Ümraniyespor
Esenler Erokspor
Ümraniyespor (1–2)
Esenler Erokspor (1–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Ümraniyespor
Esenler Erokspor
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Ümraniyespor
Esenler Erokspor
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Ümraniyespor | Esenler Erokspor |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 1 | 2 |
| xPoints | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 0.99 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.1 | 0.29 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Playing style | Ümraniyespor | Esenler Erokspor |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 0.75 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 13 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.82 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 422 | 417 |
| Passes against per match | 366 | 288 |
| Switches of play per match | 29.2 | 25.3 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Ümraniyespor | Esenler Erokspor |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 6.7 | 3 |
| Corners against per match | 4.1 | 5.6 |
| xG per corner | 0 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.25 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| Other | Ümraniyespor | Esenler Erokspor |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.66 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Cihan Topaloglu (Ümraniyespor) | Erdem Canpolat (Esenler Erokspor) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 6 | 7 |
| Save % | 75% | 88% |
| xG prevented | 35% | 78% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor according to our model?
The model gives Esenler Erokspor a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ümraniyespor 19%, draw 25%, Esenler Erokspor 55%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.