01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Çorum to win62%
- Under 3.5 goals72%
Süper Lig22°6 km/h
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ÇorumLow block & directvs
KasımpaşaLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Çorum (62%)
Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.
Çorum – Kasımpaşa · Süper Lig
1 · Çorum 62%X 20%17% Kasımpaşa · 2
62%
20%
17%
Analysis: Çorum – Kasımpaşa
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
62% is a hefty number, and it firmly places its chips on Corum FK to come out on top against Kasimpasa. With the model favoring a home win at odds of 2.3—available from Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet—this is a juicy slice of value, with a hefty 43% edge up for grabs. Yet, beneath the surface lies complexity: Kasimpasa holds the upper hand in almost every underlying metric.
Corum FK has been forecasted to manage 1.79 expected goals, while Kasimpasa lags behind at 0.87. This paints a picture of potential dominance on Corum FK's home turf. Yet, when it comes to xPoints, Kasimpasa's 2.1 far outshines Corum FK's 0.6. Similarly, Kasimpasa’s xG per match nearly doubles that of their opponents, suggesting a team that knows how to carve out chances, even if the model sees them as underdogs in this clash.
Kasimpasa's defensive metrics also suggest a robustness Corum FK lacks, with an xGA per match of just 0.91 compared to a woeful 3.1 for the home side. This defensive frailty makes one wonder if Corum FK's expected dominance might crumble under the scrutiny of a direct and capable Kasimpasa attack. Yet, despite these glaring contrasts, the most likely scorelines point to a 1-0 or 2-0 victory for Corum FK.
Kasimpasa's superiority in metrics like xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball implies a team capable of striking swiftly. However, given both teams' propensity for a direct style, the volatile nature of this matchup could suppress scoring opportunities. With a 50% chance for over 2.5 goals and a near-even chance for both teams to score, the game teeters on unpredictability.
In the end, the sharpest angle is clear: the 43% value edge on a Corum FK win can't be ignored, especially with three different bookmakers offering odds of 2.3. It's a gamble worth considering, even if the underlying metrics suggest Kasimpasa might make this a more complex affair than it appears at first glance.
ÇorumForm D
League ranking xG #15xGA #17xT #18xP/match #14Points #10
Key players
- Jesús Andrés Ramírez DíazFxG 0.36 · xT -0.01
- Alexandros KyziridisLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.02
- Berat OzdemirCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.03
KasımpaşaForm LDLWD
League ranking xG #7xGA #7xT #9xP/match #6Points #7
Key players
- Adrian Dawid BenedyczakFxG 0.41 · xT 0.04
- Irfan Can KahveciRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.16
- Pape Habib GuèyeFxG 0.34 · xT 0.02
Match prediction: Çorum – Kasımpaşa
Predicted score matrix
Kasımpaşa →
Çorum →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.3%
0–15.8%
0–22.6%
0–30.8%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–012.2%
1–111.2%
1–24.7%
1–31.4%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–011.3%
2–19.7%
2–24.2%
2–31.2%
2–4+0.3%
3
3–06.7%
3–15.8%
3–22.5%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–04.5%
4+–13.9%
4+–21.7%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-012%
- 2.2-011%
- 3.1-111%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,79–0,87
Both teams to score
49%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
118%
225%
322%
415%
5+13%
Under 2,550%
@1.91
Over 2,550%
@1.81
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Çorum to win62%
- Under 2.5 goals50%
- Alfredo Kulembe Gomes Ribeiro to score16%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score49%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Alfredo Kulembe Gomes Ribeiro to score16%
- Cláudio Winck Neto to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Çorum62% probability@2.25BetsafeEV+40%reference odds
- 1 · Çorum62% probability@2.25BetssonEV+40%reference odds
- 1 · Çorum62% probability@2.25NordicbetEV+40%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Çorum | X | 2 · Kasımpaşa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 40% 2.25 | 3.35 | 3.05 |
| Betsson | EV+ 40% 2.25 | 3.35 | 3.05 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 40% 2.25 | 3.35 | 3.05 |
Odds updated 18 Aug, 10:36
Odds movement
1-2 %
44 %39 %
2.30 → 2.25
X0 %
30 %25 %
3.35 → 3.35
2+3 %
34 %29 %
2.95 → 3.05
Over 2,5-3 %
53 %48 %
1.86 → 1.81
Betsson · 2 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Çorum
Kasımpaşa
Çorum (2–2)
Kasımpaşa (1–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Çorum
Kasımpaşa
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Çorum
Kasımpaşa
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Çorum | Kasımpaşa |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 1 | 1 |
| xPoints | 0.6 | 2.1 |
| xG per match | 0.63 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 3.1 | 0.91 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.38 | 0 |
| Playing style | Çorum | Kasımpaşa |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.17 | 0.36 |
| xT per match | 0.24 | 0.89 |
| xTA per match | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 11 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| Entries into the box per match | 4 | 7 |
| Entries into the box against | 31 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.66 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 213 | 278 |
| Passes against per match | 479 | 449 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.6 | 16.3 |
| Long balls per match | 24 | 18 |
| Set pieces | Çorum | Kasımpaşa |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 0.98 | 3.1 |
| Corners against per match | 7.8 | 10.2 |
| xG per corner | 0 | 0.12 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0 | 0.67 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.25 | 0.8 |
| Other | Çorum | Kasımpaşa |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.57 | 0.62 |
| The goalkeepers | Marcos Felipe de Freitas Monteiro (Çorum) | Andreas Gianniotis (Kasımpaşa) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 11 | 4 |
| Save % | 85% | 80% |
| xG prevented | 83% | 79% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Çorum vs Kasımpaşa according to our model?
The model gives Çorum a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Çorum 62%, draw 20%, Kasımpaşa 17%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.