Austrian Bundesliga23°8,9 mm8 km/h

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    Grazer AKGrazer AK
    2–1
    Austria LustenauAustria Lustenau
    The model's lean: 1 · Grazer AK (42%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 3.50 (+15 %)

    Grazer AK – Austria Lustenau · Austrian Bundesliga

    1 · Grazer AK 42%X 30%28% Austria Lustenau · 2
    Final score
    2 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Grazer AK 42% · Draw 30% · Austria Lustenau 28%

    Match prediction: Grazer AK – Austria Lustenau

    Predicted score matrix

    Austria Lustenau →
    Grazer AK →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–010.5%
    0–19.6%
    0–24.9%
    0–31.6%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–012.8%
    1–113.4%
    1–26.4%
    1–32.1%
    1–4+0.6%
    2
    2–08.6%
    2–18.5%
    2–24.2%
    2–31.4%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–03.7%
    3–13.7%
    3–21.8%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–01.6%
    4+–11.6%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-013%
    3. 3.0-010%
    4. 4.0-110%
    5. 5.2-09%
    Expected goals
    1,30–0,99
    Both teams to score
    46%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,3
    Under 2,560%
    @1.85EV+11%
    Over 2,540%
    @1.95

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Grazer AK or draw (1X)72%
    • Under 3.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    57%

    Fair odds

    1.74

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 2 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Grazer AK or draw (1X)72%
    • Under 2.5 goals60%

    Combined probability

    45%

    Fair odds

    2.21

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 2 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score46%
    • Over 2.5 goals40%

    Combined probability

    33%

    Fair odds

    3.06

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 1.533% probability@3.50Bet365EV+15%
    • Under 2.560% probability@1.85Bet365EV+11%
    • Both teams to score: No54% probability@1.95Bet365EV+5%
    Bookmaker1 · Grazer AKX2 · Austria Lustenau
    Bet3651.913.30
    EV+ 2%
    3.60

    Odds updated 3 Aug, 15:52

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Grazer AK vs Austria Lustenau according to our model?

    The model gives Grazer AK a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Grazer AK 42%, draw 30%, Austria Lustenau 28%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.