Ried vs Rapid Wien: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

Austrian Bundesliga9 August 202624°12 km/h

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Ried

1–2

Rapid Wien

The model's lean: 2 · Rapid Wien (40%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 8.00 (+2 %)

1 · Ried 30%X 29%40% Rapid Wien · 2

30%

29%

40%

Final score

1 – 2

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Ried 30% · Draw 29% · Rapid Wien 40%

Match prediction: Ried – Rapid Wien

Predicted score matrix

Rapid Wien →

Ried →

0–07.5%

0–19.9%

0–27.3%

0–33.5%

0–4+1.7%

1–08.3%

1–112.7%

1–28.8%

1–34.2%

1–4+2.0%

2–05.2%

2–17.5%

2–25.3%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.2%

3–02.1%

3–13.0%

3–22.2%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.2%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-110%
3.1-29%
4.1-08%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,21–1,43

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

07%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@1.92

Over 2,549%

@2.05EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

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01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Rapid Wien or draw (X2)68%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Double chance Rapid Wien or draw (X2)68%
Under 2.5 goals51%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals49%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.513% probability@8.00Bet365EV+2%
1 · Ried30% probability@3.35PinnacleEV+2%
Over 2.549% probability@2.05Bet365EV+1%

Bookmaker	1 · Ried	X	2 · Rapid Wien
Bet365	2.80	3.25	2.38
Pinnacle	EV+ 2% 3.35	EV+ 0% 3.44	2.23

Odds updated 9 Aug, 08:08

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Rapid Wien win since 3 August — the odds have shortened from 2.43 to 2.23 (−8%).

1+12 %

33 %28 %

2.99 → 3.35

X+6 %

31 %26 %

3.24 → 3.44

2-8 %

44 %39 %

2.43 → 2.23

Over 2,5-4 %

51 %46 %

2.03 → 1.95

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 03/08/2026 → 09/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Ried vs Rapid Wien according to our model?

The model gives Rapid Wien a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ried 30%, draw 29%, Rapid Wien 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.