Austrian Bundesliga24°4,3 mm15 km/h

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    HartbergHartberg
    0–2
    Sturm GrazSturm Graz
    The model's lean: 2 · Sturm Graz (55%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.91 (+3 %)

    Hartberg – Sturm Graz · Austrian Bundesliga

    1 · Hartberg 18%X 26%55% Sturm Graz · 2
    Final score
    0 – 2
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Hartberg 18% · Draw 26% · Sturm Graz 55%

    Match prediction: Hartberg – Sturm Graz

    Predicted score matrix

    Sturm Graz →
    Hartberg →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.2%
    0–110.7%
    0–210.3%
    0–36.4%
    0–4+4.6%
    1
    1–05.4%
    1–110.9%
    1–29.9%
    1–36.2%
    1–4+4.4%
    2
    2–02.7%
    2–15.1%
    2–24.8%
    2–33.0%
    2–4+2.1%
    3
    3–00.9%
    3–11.6%
    3–21.5%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.7%
    4+
    4+–00.3%
    4+–10.5%
    4+–20.4%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.0-111%
    3. 3.0-210%
    4. 4.1-210%
    5. 5.0-36%
    Expected goals
    0,96–1,87
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,546%
    @2.11
    Over 2,554%
    @1.77

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Sturm Graz to win55%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    48%

    Fair odds

    2.10

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 2 legs

    Balanced

    • Sturm Graz to win55%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%

    Combined probability

    37%

    Fair odds

    2.68

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 2 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%

    Combined probability

    42%

    Fair odds

    2.40

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • X · Draw26% probability@3.91PinnacleEV+3%
    Bookmaker1 · HartbergX2 · Sturm Graz
    Pinnacle4.90
    EV+ 3%
    3.91    		1.72

    Odds updated 8 Aug, 10:09

    Odds movement

    1+5 %
    21 %16 %

    4.65 → 4.90

    X+2 %
    27 %22 %

    3.85 → 3.91

    2+1 %
    60 %55 %

    1.71 → 1.72

    Over 2,5-2 %
    56 %51 %

    1.81 → 1.77

    Pinnacle · 16 recorded price levels · 02/08/2026 → 08/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Hartberg vs Sturm Graz according to our model?

    The model gives Sturm Graz a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hartberg 18%, draw 26%, Sturm Graz 55%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.