Beveren vs Anderlecht: Prediction & Odds (16 Aug 2026)

Belgian Pro League16 August 2026Freethiel Stadion, Beveren20°13 km/h

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Beveren

Anderlecht

The model's lean: 1 · Beveren (54%)

1 · Beveren 54%X 25%22% Anderlecht · 2

54%

25%

22%

Analysis: Beveren – Anderlecht

Anna Karlsson · 11 August 2026 · How the predictions work

54% — that's the model's probability for SK Beveren to win this clash against RSC Anderlecht, and it speaks volumes. The numbers point towards a battle tilted in Beveren's favour, with a most likely scoreline of 1-1 or a 1-0 victory to the home side, each sitting at 12% and 10% probability respectively. The expected goals (xG) further underline this narrative, as Beveren is anticipated to notch up 1.71 to Anderlecht's 1.10. Beveren's recent form at home has been nothing short of compelling, and these metrics suggest their momentum could continue.

RSC Anderlecht's chances in this fixture appear slimmer, not just by the model's percentages but through their own struggles on the road. With a mere 22% chance to pull off a win, Anderlecht will need more than just hope to tackle Beveren's assertiveness on their turf. Notably, the head-to-head sample is too small to weigh against the present form and expected goals, so any past encounters shouldn't distract from the current dynamics.

SK Beveren has the weather gods in their favour, too. No rain or wind to suppress the attacking plays — a perfect stage set for goals. The over/under lean is quite telling, with a 53% likelihood for over 2.5 goals, hinting at an open game, albeit slightly favouring a scoreline under the 2.5 mark given the most likely scorelines. It’s a thin veil between these probabilities but significant enough to anticipate a closely fought contest.

SK Beveren emerges as a formidable value play here. Bookmakers like Pinnacle offer odds of 3.74, while Betsafe and Betsson present 3.65 — all providing juicy EV+ opportunities. With a 54% model rating, punters eyeing these odds could find themselves with a profitable edge. This isn't a guarantee of course, but when the numbers align like they do for Beveren, it’s hard to ignore the potential rewards.

Beveren

Form L

Anderlecht

Form DDWLW

Key players

Ali MaamarRWBxG 0.25 · xT 0.45
Marco KanaCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.19
Giulian BianconeCBxG 0.15 · xT 0.77

Match prediction: Beveren – Anderlecht

Predicted score matrix

Anderlecht →

Beveren →

0–06.4%

0–16.3%

0–23.6%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.5%

1–010.0%

1–111.6%

1–26.2%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.8%

2–19.7%

2–25.3%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.7%

3–05.0%

3–15.5%

3–23.0%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–03.2%

4+–13.5%

4+–21.9%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.2-09%
5.0-06%

Expected goals

1,71–1,10

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@1.95

Over 2,553%

@1.87

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Beveren to win54%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Beveren to win54%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Lennart Mertens to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Lennart Mertens to score33%
Sieben Dewaele to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Beveren54% probability@3.74PinnacleEV+101%
1 · Beveren54% probability@3.40Betfair ExchangeEV+83%
1 · Beveren54% probability@3.40BetsafeEV+83%

Bookmaker	1 · Beveren	X	2 · Anderlecht
Betfair Exchange	EV+ 83% 3.40	3.60	2.12
Betsafe	EV+ 83% 3.40	3.45	2.05
Betsson	EV+ 83% 3.40	3.45	2.05
Nordicbet	EV+ 83% 3.40	3.45	2.05
Pinnacle	EV+ 101% 3.74	3.55	1.97

Odds updated 13 Aug, 09:36

Odds movement

1+2 %

28 %23 %

3.66 → 3.74

X+1 %

29 %24 %

3.52 → 3.55

2-2 %

50 %45 %

2.01 → 1.97

Over 2,50 %

53 %48 %

1.88 → 1.87

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 10/08/2026 → 11/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Beveren

Anderlecht

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Beveren (1–2)

Anderlecht (2–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Beveren

Anderlecht

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Beveren

Anderlecht

The goalkeepers	Johannes Schenk (Beveren)	Colin Coosemans (Anderlecht)
Saves	5	1
Save %	71%	50%
xG prevented	23%	57%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Beveren vs Anderlecht according to our model?

The model gives Beveren a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Beveren 54%, draw 25%, Anderlecht 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.