Sint-Truiden vs Lommel: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

Belgian Pro League8 August 2026Stayen, Sint-Truiden22°12 km/h

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Sint-TruidenPossession control

1–1

Lommel

The model's lean: 1 · Sint-Truiden (62%)Best value by the model: 2 · Lommel @ 6.57 (+26 %)

1 · Sint-Truiden 62%X 19%19% Lommel · 2

62%

19%

Analysis: Sint-Truiden – Lommel

Marcus Johansson · 7 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

A 62% likelihood leans heavily on Sint-Truidense VV to secure a win against Lommel in this Pro League clash. Sint-Truidense VV have been the more consistent force, with expected goals suggesting a decisive edge at 1.93 against Lommel's 1.02. Recent form paints a favourable picture for the hosts, and with the narrative of outright victory stacking in their favour, it's hard to look past them in this encounter.

Lommel, priced at 5.39 with Pinnacle, offers a tempting value for those looking to gamble against the odds. Yet, at a probability of 19%, this is a long shot that requires a leap of faith more than sound judgment. It's a high-risk play better suited for those comfortable with the unlikely turning probable.

Sint-Truidense VV, with a more balanced performance this season, look poised to edge this out. The most likely scorelines—1-1, 2-1, and 1-0—highlight a match where goals may not flow freely, but the 57% chance of over 2.5 goals injects a layer of potential unpredictability. The weather's lack of interference further bolsters the possibility for goals, yet the undercurrent hints at a controlled performance from the hosts.

Lommel's challenge will be in breaking down a team expected to have a solid defensive showing. The chance of both teams finding the net stands at 55%, but with Sint-Truidense VV's offensive and defensive metrics, a clean sheet win isn't out of the question.

For the betting-minded, the sharpest angle emerges with the over 2.5 goals market. Pinnacle's odds of 1.8 offer a modest 2% edge—a quieter value play, but one that aligns with the statistical whispers of this match. With such analysis, a 2-1 outcome feels the most probable, nudging us toward a sensible wager on goals exceeding the 2.5 mark.

Sint-Truiden

Form WLDLW

League ranking xG #5xGA #4xT #5xP/match #3Points #3

Key players

Ryotaro ItoCAMxG 0.25 · xT 0.14
Robert-Jan VanwesemaelRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.18
Keisuke GotoFxG 0.35 · xT 0.01

Lommel

Final score

1 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Sint-Truiden 62% · Draw 19% · Lommel 19%

Match prediction: Sint-Truiden – Lommel

Predicted score matrix

Lommel →

Sint-Truiden →

0–05.5%

0–15.0%

0–22.7%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.3%

1–09.8%

1–110.6%

1–25.3%

1–31.8%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.7%

2–19.9%

2–25.1%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–06.3%

3–16.4%

3–23.3%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–04.7%

4+–14.8%

4+–22.5%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-010%
4.2-010%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,93–1,02

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.10

Over 2,557%

@1.76EV+0%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sint-Truiden to win62%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sint-Truiden to win62%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Keisuke Goto to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Keisuke Goto to score31%
Joey Mathijs Pelupessy to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Lommel19% probability@6.57PinnacleEV+26%reference odds
Over 2.557% probability@1.76PinnacleEV+0%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sint-Truiden	X	2 · Lommel
Pinnacle	1.51	4.31	EV+ 26% 6.57

Odds updated 8 Aug, 10:09

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Sint-Truiden win since 4 August — the odds have shortened from 1.59 to 1.51 (−6%).

1-6 %

64 %59 %

1.59 → 1.51

X+7 %

25 %20 %

4.01 → 4.31

2+21 %

19 %14 %

5.44 → 6.57

Over 2,5-2 %

56 %51 %

1.80 → 1.76

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 08/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sint-Truiden

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Sint-Truiden (61–46)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sint-Truiden

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sint-Truiden

The goalkeepers	Leo Brian Kokubo (Sint-Truiden)	Lommel
Saves	110	–
Save %	72%	–
xG prevented	52%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Teams & more matches this round

Sint-Truiden

Fixtures, form & tips

Lommel

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sint-Truiden vs Lommel according to our model?

The model gives Sint-Truiden a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sint-Truiden 62%, draw 19%, Lommel 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.