Sint-Truiden vs Lommel: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

Belgian Pro League8 August 2026Stayen, Sint-Truiden21°9 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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Sint-TruidenPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Sint-Truiden (62%)

LommelLow block & direct

1 · Sint-Truiden 62%X 19%19% Lommel · 2

62%

19%

Sint-Truiden

Form WLDLW

League ranking xG #5xGA #4xT #5xP/match #3Points #3

Key players

Ryotaro ItoCAMxG 0.25 · xT 0.14
Robert-Jan VanwesemaelRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.18
Keisuke GotoFxG 0.35 · xT 0.01

Lommel

League ranking xG #14xGA #6xT #15xP/match #7Points #15

Key players

Pape Moussa FallFxG 0.58 · xT 0.03
Jerry AfriyieFxG 0.26 · xT 0.05
Jordi LiongolaRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Sint-Truiden – Lommel

Predicted score matrix

Lommel →

Sint-Truiden →

0–05.5%

0–15.0%

0–22.7%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.3%

1–09.8%

1–110.6%

1–25.3%

1–31.8%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.7%

2–19.9%

2–25.1%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–06.3%

3–16.4%

3–23.3%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–04.7%

4+–14.8%

4+–22.5%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-010%
4.2-010%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,93–1,02

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.02

Over 2,557%

@1.80EV+2%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Lommel19% probability@5.44PinnacleEV+5%
Over 2.557% probability@1.80PinnacleEV+2%

Bookmaker	1 · Sint-Truiden	X	2 · Lommel
Pinnacle	1.59	4.01	EV+ 5% 5.44

Odds updated 4 Aug, 09:03

Analysis: Sint-Truiden – Lommel

Marcus Johansson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

62%. That's the commanding chance Sint-Truidense VV is given to claim victory against Lommel, a figure that dwarfs the 19% carving out for both a draw and a Lommel win. With such a clear lean towards the home side, the odds are stacked against Lommel, though that doesn't make their trip to Sint-Truiden a futile exercise. The pitch is a place where surprise and chance often eclipse the predictions.

Sint-Truidense VV's campaign has been anchored in control and possession, reflecting in their strong 71 points this season. They also show superiority in expected goals and expected goals against per match. Lommel, however, embrace a contrasting style, deploying low defence and direct play, which, while not statistically superior, can yield results in the chaos of a match. The possibility of a 1-1 draw, at 11%, suggests Lommel could snag a point if they can withstand Sint-Truidense's possession-heavy approach.

Lommel's opportunity for an upset is enticingly reflected in the betting odds. Pinnacle offers a juicy 5.44 for an away win, sitting just above the model's 19% probability, thus presenting a 5% edge. This is a classic case of value betting, albeit against the grain of prediction. Yet, with expected goals of 1.93 for Sint-Truidense and 1.02 for Lommel, the sway remains with the hosts, pointing towards a likely 2-1 outcome.

The over 2.5 goals market is also worth a glance, with a 57% chance of hitting and Pinnacle listing odds at 1.8. The numbers suggest a lean towards goals, supported by the likelihood of both teams finding the net, standing at 55%. Betting on over 2.5 goals offers a slight edge of 2%, aligning with the projected open nature of the game. While Sint-Truidense VV is the logical bet given their dominance across the stats, those seeking value might find the odds on total goals appealing.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sint-Truiden

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Sint-Truiden (61–46)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sint-Truiden

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sint-Truiden

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sint-Truiden	Lommel
Points	71	34
xPoints	58.3	51.6
xG per match	1.6	1.2
xGA per match	1.3	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.21

Playing style	Sint-Truiden	Lommel
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.33
Field tilt	0.59	0.39
xT per match	1.1	0.85
xTA per match	0.95	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	25	28
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.34	0.31
Entries into the box per match	14	11
Entries into the box against	12	13
Pass completion %	0.79	0.68
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.64
Passes per match	416	230
Passes against per match	326	411
Switches of play per match	31.9	24
Long balls per match	36	32

Set pieces	Sint-Truiden	Lommel
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.11
Corners per match	5.6	5
Corners against per match	4.7	4.3
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.55

Other	Sint-Truiden	Lommel
Throw-in control	0.72	0.64

The goalkeepers	Leo Brian Kokubo (Sint-Truiden)	Lommel
Saves	110	–
Save %	72%	–
xG prevented	52%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sint-Truiden vs Lommel according to our model?

The model gives Sint-Truiden a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sint-Truiden 62%, draw 19%, Lommel 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.